Climate change impacts
Both temperature and precipitation projections for Bullas were extracted from the gridded fields generated by three Regional Climate Models (RCM) and two high-resolution Global Climate Models (GCM). Such projections were downloaded from the website of the PCMDI (http://www.pcmdi.llnl.gov/) and of the ENSEMBLES project (http://ensemblesrt3.dmi.dk/). From each gridded field, the grid point closest to Bullas was considered. Temperature: The three RCMs estimate a rise of the mean air temperature at the end of the century between 3.7ºC (SMHIRCA) and 4.0ºC (RM5.1 and RACMO2). The most intense warming is in summer (between 4.9ºC and 5.6ºC), the least intense in spring (between 2.0ºC and 3.3ºC). For the A1B scenario, the INGV estimates a warming at the end of the century equal to 2.8ºC, while the CNRM estimate is a 3.8ºC. The warming predicted by GCMs in the A1B scenario is lower than that predicted by RCMs. In the A2 scenario, the GCMs predict a warming between 3.8ºC and 4.8ºC, while in the B1 scenario the CNRM estimate is 2.5ºC. This means that the uncertainty due to the two opposite scenarios (i.e. A2 and B1) is something around 2.0ºC. This uncertainty is likely to be wider when more GCMs are considered. With regards to the GCMs projections, the maximum increase for the mean temperature (6.5ºC) is predicted by the CNRM model in the A2 scenario, while the minimum increase (1.6ºC) is predicted by the INGV model in the A1B scenario. Precipitation: The three predict a reduction of the annual cumulated precipitation at the end of the century, ranging between -29.7% (SMHIRCA) and -39.0% (RACMO2). The relatively wide range of the variation reflects the high uncertainty which characterizes the precipitation projections. All the RCMs show a quite stable decrease over the whole century for the seasonal and annual precipitations, with two models out of three predicting a relative maximum in the middle of the century occurs; such a reduction ranges between -34.6% and -50.0%. Finally, the RCMs do not predict an increase in seasonal precipitations. With regards to the GCMs, in the A1B scenario the CNRM model estimates a drop of the precipitation of -32.7%, while the INGV estimate is of -30.7% for the last ten years of the period. In the A2 scenario, the GCMs predict a drop of the annual precipitation between - 37.1% and -37.8%, while in the B1 scenario the global CNRM model predicts a - 26.3%.
Main motivation for taking adaptation action
Bullas is dependent on the tourism, wine, and food industries which are highly sensitive to changes in climate. Bullas considers climate change adaptation to be an opportunity that they are proactively taking advantage of.
Have you already developed an adaptation strategy?
Yes, we have an adaptation strategy
Name of the strategy/ plan (If adopted)
Local Adaptation Plan to Climate Change
Date of strategy/plan approval
25 Mar 2013
Weblink of the strategy/ plan
Summary of the strategy/plan
The purpose of the report is to identify climate change adaptation actions for Bullas' local government that produce benefits other than those that are strictly tied to climate change. The actions are also designed to provide a net economic, social or environmental benefit regardless of the level of climate change that occurs. Furthermore, the plan is intended to be periodically revised. Adaptation is the focus of this document. Partners involved in the development of the plan include the Regulating Board of the D.O. Bullas Wine, the Wine Route Association and external technical experts.
Planned adaptation actions
The main objective of the following adaptation measures is to enhance the Bullas Natural Winery as a sustainable tourism option, giving value to climate change mitigation and adaptation measures. Some of the proposed actions include installing more awnings over sidewalks to provide relief from the heat, developing a guide for homeowners and architects on how to save water and energy, creating a knowledge-sharing platform for farmers, and collecting tourism indicators, to name a few.
Good practice / spotlight item
Bullas worked with the cities of Ancona and Patras to create a model designed to assist municipalities in developing a local strategy of adaptation that take into account environmental, social, and economic changes. The partner cities were ultimately able to develop guidelines, which help cities understand and implement adaptation measures, map existing instruments, identify knowledge gaps, create working groups, and improve knowledge sharing.
Climate change impacts
- Extreme Temperatures
- Water Scarcity
Key vulnerable sectors
Pedro Chico Fernández
Pedro García Moreno
Agent of Local Development
Mayors Adapt signatory
Date of officially joining Mayors Adapt
31 Jul 2014