Assessing risks and vulnerabilities to climate change
Develop an approach for addressing knowledge gaps and for dealing with uncertainties
Inherent to any decision-making process, uncertainty and knowledge gaps are particularly emphasised as a challenge when working on climate change adaptation. Still, this is not a reason for inaction as event under those conditions, investing in flexible, low-regret adaptation action is in the self-interest of most public and private actors. There are ways to successfully address those challenges.
First, the quality of the information on which the assessments are based as well as existing knowledge gaps need to be made explicit. Research, social learning, exchange of good practice and stakeholder cooperation can help reduce the lack of knowledge (e.g. regarding plausible climate change impacts).
Second, when future society and environment might undergo rapid and unexpected change, the future does not appear to be predictable through simple extrapolation of historical trends. This can happen in the case of climatic developments and systems' response to them, but also in terms of socio-economic developments (e.g. economic crises, unexpected conflicts). Therefore it is important that the development of an adaptation policy does not assume a single future. It is crucial to identify, prepare for, and practice actions under several future scenarios.
How to deal with uncertainties?
Given the uncertainty associated with climate projections, robust strategies are required against a wide variety of possible future conditions. Dealing with uncertainty in adaptation planning is an important and challenging issue. It requires awareness of the key uncertainties associated with the analysis, and an understanding of the quality of the information on which it is based.
The CLIMATE-ADAPT section on uncertainty guidance provides access to resources covering the following topics:
Guidance and tools
Publications and report
- Uncertainty Communication, Issues and good practice
- Uncertainty and Climate Change Adaptation - a Scoping Study
- Investment Decision Making Under Deep Uncertainty - Application to Climate Change
- Best Practice Approaches for Characterizing, Communicating, and Incorporating Scientific Uncertainty in Decisionmaking