Adaptation required to preserve future high-end river flood risk at present levels

According to Willner et al. (2018) earth’s surface temperature will continue to rise for another 20 to 30 years even with the strongest carbon emission reduction currently considered. The associated changes in rainfall patterns can result in an increased flood risk worldwide. To anticipate the need for adaptation they computed the required increase in flood protection to keep high-end fluvial flood risk at present levels.

The analysis was carried out worldwide for subnational administrative units and resulted in alarming findings. According to the authors most of the United States, Central Europe, and Northeast and West Africa, as well as large parts of India and Indonesia, require the strongest adaptation effort, the need for adaptation to increased river flood is a global problem affecting industrialized regions as much as developing countries.

The results show that strong adaptation measures are often required in regions all around the globe to keep the high-end flood risk at a level to which the regional population is accustomed and that the adaptation to increased river flood is a global problem.