Coastal conflicts, climate impacts and adaptation (Fehmarn , Germany)

Description

The report is part of the Land Sea Act project (Interreg Baltic region) and analyses the case of Fehmarn Islands (Germany), where the municipality and the Baltic Environmental Forum Germany collaborated to assess climate change adaptation measures combined with sustainable tourism concepts.

Ongoing changes in climate will impact both human activities and the economic sectors they depend on throughout the 21st century. On a short to medium perspective (e.g., 2030 or 2050), the quantification of climate-related impacts provides important entry points to discuss and evaluate the feasibility of adaptation options. In consultation with the city of Fehmarn the impacts of climate change on water supply, coastal flooding and urban heat were identified as relevant for the island.

A key driving factor of the magnitude of future impacts are the expected changes in air temperatures for the region. During the summer, these are expected to increase on average by 1 and 1.5 degrees by 2030 and 2050 respectively, following a scenario in which climate action is weak. A second driver of future impacts is the local rate of sea-level change that depends, among other factors, on global temperatures, regional oceanic currents, and local rates of land uplift/subsidence.

Possible adaptation measures area illustrated for each of the 3 issues (water supply, coastal flooding and urban heat) with qualitative and quantitative adaptation options. 

Finally, a SWOT analysis was undertaken for the island of Fehmarn focusing on the dimensions of sustainability and climate, spatial conflicts, and blue economy. The lack and the need of a dedicated mid- to long-term adaptation plan to climate change in the key economic sector of tourism was highlighted.

Reference information