Heat and health in Antwerp under climate change: Projected impacts and implications for prevention

Excessive summer heat is a serious environmental health problem in several European cities and is likely to increase under climate change scenarios. This also leads to an increase of heat-related mortality and morbidity, if no adequate prevention measures are taken.

Within the study the urban climate of Antwerp was modelled for the summer season during the period 1986–2015, and projected summer daily temperatures were modelled for two periods (near (2026–2045) and far future (2081–2100)), under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5.

This was followed by an analysis of the relationship between temperature and mortality, as well as with hospital admissions for the period 2009–2013, and estimated the projected mortality in the near future and far future periods under a changing climate and population, assuming alternatively no acclimatization and acclimatization based on a constant threshold percentile temperature.

During the sample period 2009–2013 an increase in daily mortality from a maximum daily temperature of 26°C, or the 89^th percentile of the maximum daily temperature series was observed. The annual average heat-related mortality in this period was 13.4 persons (95% CI (confidence interval): 3.8–23.4). No effect of heat was observed in the case of hospital admissions due to cardiorespiratory causes. Under a no acclimatization scenario, annual average heat-related mortality is multiplied by a factor of 1.7 in the near future (24.1 deaths/year CI 95%: 6.78–41.94) and by a factor of 4.5 in the far future (60.38 deaths/year CI 95%: 17.00–105.11). Under a heat acclimatization scenario, mortality does not increase significantly in the near or in the far future.

Results show that heat is causing significant excess summer mortality in Antwerp, and this mortality may increase in the future in the absence of adequate prevention, including the adaptation of such prevention to a changing climate.