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Quantifying Projected Heat Mortality Impacts under 21st-Century Warming Conditions for Selected European Countries

Description

The paper presents and discusses the future impact of heat on population mortality in Europe, by country, under different climate change scenarios. Under future warming conditions, high ambient temperatures will have a significant impact on population health in Europe.

The paper combined the heat-mortality function estimated from historical data with meteorological projections for the future time periods 2035–2064 and 2071–2099, developed under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5. This was followed by calculated attributable deaths (AD) at the country level.

The calculation showed that during the period 2071–2099, an overall excess of 46,690 and 117,333 AD per year is expected under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios respectively, in addition to the 16,303 AD estimated under the historical Scenario.

Both, citizens from Mediterranean and Eastern European countries will be most affected by heat, but a non-negligible impact will be still registered in North-continental countries.

This paper calls for the needed and urgency of policies and plans for heat mitigation and adaptation in European countries in order to prevent the expected increase of heat-related deaths in the coming decades. Now there is an important opportunity to enhance the effective use of health projections by public health professionals, to plan policies and actions and state intervention priorities.

Reference information

Source:
International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health
Contributor:
WHO Regional Office for Europe

Published in Climate-ADAPT Feb 21 2019   -   Last Modified in Climate-ADAPT Feb 04 2023

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