Climate change adaptation measures in Romanian agriculture
The pilot study, formulated within the OrientGate project, has as main objective the identification of measures to adapt crops to climate change in two different areas in Romania (Caracal in South of the country and Covasna in the centre). Secondly, the Pilot is creating direct linkages between the researchers and the practitioners in order to share findings and learn from the practical measures and knowledge in two different sites selected based on historical climatic data how show that these areas where frequently affected especially by drought and periodically by other extreme events (heat waves, heavy rainfall, wind storms, etc). Two Romanian partners were leading the work: National Meteorological Administration (NMA) as responsible for implementing of Pilot Study 2 and Environmental Protection Agency of Covasna (EPA Covasna) as contributor to the implementation process.
Case Study Description
Challenges
We can say so that project results are useful to a better understanding of the climate change impact and adaptation actions as a good example at regional and local level helping the authorities to implement measures and actions resulted from the Study Pilot 2. The OrientGate project can be considered as scientific support for Romania’s climate adaptation regional policy, given the National Climate Change Strategy for 2013-2020 recently adopted by the Romanian Government (GD 529/July 2013). Basically, the project results aimed to support the actions and procedures for climate risk prevention and mitigation in agriculture should include the complete range of known measures (agro-technical, cultural, irrigation etc.) as well as actual interventions to locate and confine every extreme weather phenomenon in order to avoid severe consequences. Chapter 4 of the strategy calls for supporting action at the regional and local levels. This gives political and legislative support to the pilot and the work of the National Meteorological Administration. Moreover the pilot complements the strategy, particularly since it will help update climate scenarios and raise awareness. Also, the pilot study is expected to provide an enhanced crop management system that can both preempt and respond to a changing climate.
To perform the study different cropping systems (winter wheat and maize) the NMA team used the CERES models in combination with the climatic predictions [RegCMs/SRES A1B climatic predictions at a very fine resolution (10 km) over 2021-2050 vs. 1961-1990 obtained in FP7 project ENSEMBLES and ensemble mean from CMIP5 experiments - RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 scenarios for 2021-2050 period vs. 1961-2000 interpolated at station point]. Also, the DSSAT model was applied to evaluate the potential impact of weather patterns on the productivity of selected crops. Different technological sequences were analyzed by alternative simulations of crop management practices: changes in sowing date, altered genetic coefficients (P1V and P1D) for genotype selection and crop irrigation needs during the vegetation season. A set of dedicated indicators (1961-2010) was used for the risk assessment like: Standardized Precipitation Index 3 months (SPI3), Soil Moisture reserve – Rf (SM), Heat stress (HT), Aridity Index (AI), total precipitation in wet days (PRCPTOT), and consecutive dry days (CDD). The satellite derived indices such as: NDVI, NDDI and NDWI was applied. Also, the analysis of the relationship between changes of climate, irrigation requirement and yield for Romania was made by the experts from CMCC (Italy) as project coordinators.
Objectives
The results shown in this Pilot study can contribute to developing the management adaptation options to climate change-related negative effects affecting crop systems. These options could include: changing the sowing date, cultivation of winter wheat genotypes that require a high or moderate vernalization and moderate photoperiods as well as certain maize hybrids with a better resistance to hot summer and drought. For both analyzed crops (winter wheat and maize), the vegetation season gets shorter and there are fewer days available to reaching full ripeness. This shortening of the vegetation season is more marked in maize crops than in winter wheat. Such a forcing is mainly due to a probable increase in air temperature, estimated by the regional model. As to the possible effects of climate change upon yields, they depend on the genetic type (C3 or C4), direct effects of increased CO2 concentrations on photosynthesis, local conditions and the severity of changes in climate evolution.
Adaptation Options Implemented In This Case
Solutions
Under current climate conditions, the mean length of the vegetation season (from seeding time to ripeness) for winter wheat is 270 days, and considering future climate scenarios is expected to reduce the vegetation period by 13-19 days. For maize crop, the simulations show that reducing the duration of the vegetation is higher (15-25 days) due to increased of the air temperature, especially in summer months.
A 30-year mean of winter wheat yields simulated under current climate conditions is 4452 kg/ha at Caracal. Given the probable climate conditions according to the RegCM3/SRES A1B scenarios-predicted future evolution, the mean wheat yield is higher by 6.3% considering scenario 2021-2050 and 15.6% for 2071-2100 scenario than the 1961-1990 one.
In current climatic conditions the average maize yield is 5094 kg/ha at Caracal. Analyzing the simulated results highlighted that for maize, which is more sensitive than wheat to local climate and future climate severity, average grain yields tend to decrease by 14.4%in 2021-2050 period, and more abruptly, by 36.5% in 2071-2100 period.
In the Pilot Study 2 the water is used more efficiently by the winter wheat crop with the later sowing date (October 20 and November 1 in Caracal area; September 10 and October 5 in Tg. Secuiesc) compared with earlier dates of end of September and beginning of October month. For the maize crop water is used more efficiently with an earlier sowing date (April 1 and 11 in Caracal area; March 20 and April 1 in Tg. Secuiesc) in comparison with later date (April 20 or 10).
In conclusion, in the agricultural area of Pilot Study 2, the winter wheat yield will slowly increase in comparison with the current conditions as a consequence of increased CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere (affecting photosynthesis) and of using water supplies to counter-balance the negative effect of shorter vegetation periods. The maize yields will decrease due to higher temperatures that shorten the vegetation season, coupled with a water stress, mainly during the phenological phases of grain formation and filling.
The management and sustainable development decisions should aim to increase the agricultural production by growing in each region the appropriate crops that have the largest benefit from the natural potential for agriculture, which is evaluated through analysis of local agropedoclimatic conditions.
Within the field crop production, the selection of the cultivated species includes mainly the correlation of the local environment conditions with the degree of genotypes resistance (varieties / hybrids) according to the limitative vegetation conditions (drought, humidity excess, high temperatures, cold / frost period, etc.).
Relevance
Case developed and implemented as a Climate Change Adaptation Measure.
Additional Details
Stakeholder Participation
The Pilot is creating direct linkages between the researchers and the practitioners (farmers). Local municipalities in Caracal and Covasna were involved during the whole project-period. They provided technical support for the implementation of results in order to develop drought-risk management tool and adaptation measures and contacts with local farmers for testing techniques and implementing results. Also, the Agricultural Research-Development Station of Caracal will use the findings of the pilot results to develop own research on obtaining varieties and hybrids with high adaptability to local climate and soil conditions. To ensure transfer of knowledge 3 thematic seminars and 3 scientific meetings among OrientGate partners and Romanian stakeholders were organized: local, regional and national authorities in the sectors of agriculture, farmers, water, environment, emergency response, education and public administration; urban planners; academic institutions; and representatives from civil society. We can say so that project results are useful to a better understanding of the climate change impact and adaptation actions as a good example at regional and local level helping the authorities to implement measures and actions resulted from the Study Pilot 2.
At local level, the municipality of Sfantu Gheorghe, the capital City of Covasna County in collaboration with the Environmental Protection Agency of Covasna initiated the elaboration of the “Adaptation to climate change strategy for Sfantu Gheorghe City” in the frame of the EU Cities Adapt project. The project is carried out for DG CLIMATE Action. More information about the project can be found on the webpage: http://eucities-adapt.eu/cms/.
The Romanian Municipalities Association initiated a consultative process through "The Romanian Municipalities Association Commitment for Climate Change Effects Prevention", which has so far been signed by 35 out of 109 municipalities. One aspect of this commitment is related to the assessment of climate change risk and implications for public services and local communities and their capacity to adapt to climate change.
On 30th July 2009, the Romanian Municipalities Association signed an agreement in order to become a partner organization in implementing the Covenant of Mayors in Romania. Currently 30 of the municipalities-part of the Romanian Municipalities Association have so far signed this Convention, together with another 1200 local authorities. In this context, the Covasna Municipality signed aleady the Convention.
Success and Limiting Factors
Building the pilot on robust science and having the initiative of a leading scientific institute were also key: it brought credibility to the case for adaptation; provided evidence-based facts on which policy-makers can make informed judgments; and helped ‘size’ the climate risk, by providing a sense of where, when and by how much the agricultural sector would be affected. Such information is vital to the practical activities carried out by farmers, such as planting schedules and selecting crop varieties. The wide involvement of stakeholders, civil society and the farmers themselves was also important to the pilot’s success. The fact that the two project partners, following the pilot, are now gearing up to take their adaptation learning out to other regions - and to other parts of the EU - is a testament to the positive momentum they generated and the engagement they fostered.
Given the fact that at the end of 2014 a new process of revising of the Environmental Action Plan for Covasna County will start, the EPA Covasna will find solutions to include the results of the Pilot Study 2 into actions at regional level. A similar goal will have also the Municipality of Caracal. This approach will serve as a bridge between scientific community and stakeholders such as local/regional authorities and farmers.
Costs and Benefits
The presented results of climate change impact studies on agricultural crop production in Romania highlighted following key points:
- Climate change will cause significant shift in the environmental conditions, adaptation of the farmers being crucial
- Drought frequency and severity is expected to increase
- Yields of winter wheat crops are expected to increase and for maize to decrease mainly in the case of a scenario predicting hot summer and droughty conditions
- The agriculture will face more climate-related risks, the adaptation options being requiring continuing research on the effect from irrigation and sustainability of yields under various water saving methods and irrigation technologies
- Modeling of the potential impacts of climate change on farming systems with identification of adaptation responses and need to develop the capacity of stakeholders to implement these measures in practice are goals that requires long-term responses
- Numerical experiments to determine the optimal dates and water quantity for irrigation crops for various climate scenarios are necessary to be carried out and the calculations are applied by taken in regard to biophysical and economic analysis of the final yield associated with the economic models
- Better dissemination of meteorological information to farmers and raise awareness on water saving techniques in order to prevent drought and water scarcity.
Exploatation of the project outomes as the main benefits are highlighted by the fact that the EPA Covasna may review the Local Action Plan for Environmental Protection of Covasna County considering the following:
- entering weather-climate in local planning;
- creating a bridge between the organization generates meteo-climatic data and local decision makers;
- initiating actions to disseminate the results obtained by specialized research projects conducted in order to identify adaptation measures to climate change, to local authorities and farmers in the area;
- initiating projects on adaptation to climate change, with the involvement of other public institutions and NGOs in the county;
- cooperating with local governments to carry out plans to adapt to climate changes.
Legal Aspects
Currently, Romania finalized the National Climate Change Strategy with time horizon on medium and long term (2013-2020) in which adaptation will be an important part of the document. The strategy addresses two main components: the reduction in the concentration of greenhouse gases (Mitigation) and the adaptation to climate change (Adaptation). At national level, once the Adaptation component was launched, the interministerial working group developed a large consultative process with central and local stakeholders in order to draw up an efficient adaptation component and to reduce the adverse inevitable effects of climate change and to meet the EU objective on adaptation. On the Adaptation component were identified 13 sectors vulnerable to climate change: Food, Agriculture and Fisheries, Tourism, Public Health, Construction and Infrastructure, Transportation, Water Resources, Forestry, Energy, Biodiversity, Insurance, Recreation, Education. In this context, the integration of the adaptation in the sectorial strategies will help to have a comprehensive approach and select appropriate measures for the direct and indirect effects of climate change. In order to develop a realistic adaptation strategy we have to adjust the existing sectorial strategies on climate change basis.
In the period 2013-2015, the Ministry of Environment and Climate Change (MECC) will work together with the experts from World Bank to achieve the National Objectives and EU Requirements in the Field of Climate Change. The list of top six priority sectors refers to agriculture, water resources, forests, biodiversity, energy, transport and the main objectives of the funding application for the Climate Change RAS (Reimbursable Advisory Service) will include the most important climate change effects necessary to be managed by each sector.
As such, the members of the working group approved by the MECC will provide the most important response measures, including crosscutting measures, for each of these priority sectors. In this context, the Pilot Study 2 results will be used as
scientific support for this activity. Basically, the results aimed to base the adaptation actions and procedures for climate risk prevention in agriculture given the complete range of recommendations proposed in terms of technological sequences (changes of sowing data, genotype recommended, soil type, water use efficiency (WUE), etc).
Implementation Time
The experimental research will require testing on changes sowing dates and verification of the behavior of varieties to drought and heat stress at least 3-5 years.
Life Time
The adaptation measures must be testes in practice (3-5 years) throughout the time necessary to verify the behavior of resistance varieties to extreme weather conditions.
Reference Information
Contact
Elena Mateescu (email: elena.mateescu@meteoromania.ro) from National Meteorological Administration of Romania
Luminita Cornea (email: luminita@apmcv.anpm.ro)
Reference
Published in Climate-ADAPT Dec 30 1969 - Last Modified in Climate-ADAPT Dec 12 2023
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