Modelling the effects of global climate change on Chikungunya transmission in the 21st century

This paper looks at global regions that could become suitable for Chikungunya transmission and shall direct preparedness for future outbreaks. The methodology used follows the following steps: global correlative niche models for autochthonous Chikungunya transmission, followed by two projections under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5. As the last step hazard maps, which account for population densities, were produced. Both scenarios show in Europe a moderated expansion of climate suitability across much of central Europe, notably Italy and France. Larger areas surrounding the Rhine and Rhone rivers in Germany and France are also increasing their suitability based on the scenarios. Northern Italy, near the Adriatic coast, is the region with highest current suitability and projected to experience a decline in suitability in both scenarios, due to an increased probability of droughts in summer times, which will reduce the habitat suitability for Chikungunya.