Frost Days, 2011-2099

Context The number of frost days provides information on frost damage.

Definition A frost day is when the daily minimum temperature is less than 0°C.

Data Sources The number of frost days index is calculated from an ensemble of five global climate model (GCM) simulations for two CMIP5 scenario projections: RCP2.6 (with low greenhouse gas emissions) and RCP8.5 (with high greenhouse gas emissions). Projected changes are calculated relative to a (1981-2010) ERA5 reference period.

Understand A positive value indicates more frost days than the reference period while a negative value indicates fewer frost days than the reference period.

Supporting Information The data was collated on behalf of the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S). Further information about this index can be found in the C3S documentation resources in the Climate Data Store.

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Visualisation and Navigation The projected change of the monthly and annual number of frost days for the chosen scenario and time period are plotted as area means for each region. The EUROSTAT NUTS classification (Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics) is a hierarchical system for dividing up the economic territory of Europe. The size of the regions shown on the map can be adjusted by selecting the appropriate NUTS level: national level (NUTS-0), first sub-national level (NUTS-1), second sub-national level (NUTS-2), and third sub-national level (NUTS-3).

The regions on the map facilitate dynamic access to the underlying data. Hover the mouse pointer over a region to view the value of the area mean or click on a region to request a time series plot. Likewise, the trans-national average for the EEA member and cooperating countries (EEA 38) can be accessed via the "Europe" bounding box.

The time series plot shows the ensemble mean and range of frost day responses to the chosen scenario conditions across an ensemble of five CMIP5 climate models. The values represent the centres of a 30-year running average from 1971 to 2100 which results in a time series covering the period from 1986 to 2085.

Click and hover the mouse over the time series plot to view the data values and to reveal action buttons for features such as “zoom” and “download plot as a png”. Links below the plot enable the download of time series data in the spreadsheet compatible .csv format.

This index is expressed as a change relative to a reference period so the (1981-2010) ERA5 reference climatology is also provided. The reference climate contains the mean climatology, the standard deviation from the mean, and the 5th and 95th percentiles.