The chance of holding global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels with no or limited overshoot – a key target of the Paris Agreement on climate change – is now gone. However, this overshoot need not be permanent. UNEP’s Emissions Gap Report 2026 'The point of return' finds that with global temperature rise set to exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, urgent and stringent cuts to greenhouse emissions are needed to minimize the magnitude and duration of overshoot and return to 1.5°C by the end of the century.