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Information on national adaptation actions reported under the Governance Regulation

Reporting updated until: 2023-03-15

Item Status Links
National Adaptation Strategy (NAS)
  • actual adaptation policy (adopted)
Sectoral Adaptation Plan (SAP)
  • actual adaptation policy (adopted)
  • actual adaptation policy (adopted)
  • actual adaptation policy (adopted)
  • actual adaptation policy (adopted)
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  • actual adaptation policy (adopted)
  • actual adaptation policy (adopted)
  • actual adaptation policy (adopted)
  • actual adaptation policy (adopted)
  • actual adaptation policy (adopted)
  • actual adaptation policy (adopted)
  • actual adaptation policy (adopted)
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  • actual adaptation policy (adopted)
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  • actual adaptation policy (adopted)
Regional Adaptation Plan (RAP)
  • actual adaptation policy (adopted)
  • actual adaptation policy (adopted)
  • actual adaptation policy (adopted)
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  • actual adaptation policy (adopted)
  • actual adaptation policy (adopted)
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Climate Risk Assessment (CRA)
  • completed
Other (specify below)
  • completed
  • completed
Meteorological observations
  • Established
Climate projections and services
  • Established
Adaptation portals and platforms
  • Established
Monitoring, reporting and evaluation (MRE) indicators and methodologies
Key reports and publications
National communication to the UNFCCC
Governance regulation adaptation reporting
Sweden extends in a south-south-westerly/north-northeasterly direction from latitudes 55 to 69 degrees north and from longitudes 11 to 23 degrees east, with a land area of 410, 000 km2. Built up and developed land make up 3% of the land area, while productive forest land account for 57 %, unproductive forest land 11 %, farmland 7 %, open mire 7 %, and other land 14 %. Inland water area total more than 120,000 km2. Southern Sweden is low-lying, with agricultural land predominating in the far south. The only real mountain chain, with peaks rising to over 2,000 m above sea level, is along the Norwegian border in the north-west.

Land rise (postglacial rebound) is taking place in most of Sweden because of the melting of land ice after the last ice age, but has ceased in the far south. Rising sea levels is causing substantial erosion along the south coast, which is characterised by easily eroded soils. Climate change due to future increases in atmospheric temperature will accelerate erosion through rising sea levels.

Forest land is an important natural resource that provides scope for biobased energy supply. In the past 50 years, farmland has successively given way to other land uses, mainly forest land. This has resulted in reduced emissions from agriculture and increased carbon sequestration in forest biomass. Besides forests, another key natural resource is iron ore, a pillar of Swedish industrial production. Abundant flowing watercourses are a significant resource for hydropower production.
The population of Sweden at the end of 2022 was 10.5 million, with 23% aged up to 19 and 20% 65 and over. Since 2020, the population has increased by 0,7 %. By 2040 the population is expected to reach over 11 million, with a larger proportion of people aged 80 years and older.

Average population density is 25.7 inhabitants per km2, ranging from 3 per km2 in Norrbotten county in northern Sweden to 360 per km2 in Stockholm county.

In Sweden, as in other countries, migration from rural to urban areas is under way. Between 1960 and 2005, the part of the population living in urban areas increased from 73 to 84 %.

In 2020, 88% of the population lived in urban areas, compared to 87 % 2015. During the same time period the urban area increased by 4%.
Swedish public administration is organised at central, regional and local levels. The central level consists of a number of agencies serving as the Government’s expert bodies and implementing the policies adopted by the Riksdag and Government. On a regional level, there are 21 county administrative boards, government agencies charged with a range of tasks, including implementing national objectives, co-ordinating the different interests of the county and promoting the development of the county. There are also self-governing regional and local authorities: 20 regions responsible for i.e. the public health care system and public transport, and 290 municipalities responsible for local services, including schools, emergency services and physical planning. Swedish regions and municipalities are autonomous, with boards and councils elected by their respective citizens in separate elections.

Sweden has an open, trade-oriented economy. In 2021 the nation’s gross domestic production (GDP) was SEK 5,450 billion, or SEK 523,000 per capita.
70% of the production in the private sector consists of services and 30% of goods. In the past, goods' share of production was larger in Sweden.

Natural resources, such as forest and iron ore, are the basis for industrial production. Since the mid-1980s, Sweden has exported goods and services for a greater value than the country has imported.

The Swedish energy system is partly based on domestic sources such as water, wind and biofuel. In addition, a large proportion of the energy supplied is dependent on imports such as nuclear fuel for electricity production in nuclear reactors and fossil fuels like oil and natural gas for the transport system. Swedish electricity production is based largely on hydropower and nuclear power, but the expansion of wind power is increasing as well as the use of biofuel for electricity and heat production.

Domestic transport is dominated by road traffic. Transport activity for passengers and goods has increased since the year 2000. Between 2018 and 2020, the number of passenger kilometers in Sweden increased by 23 percent, which is more than the population growth. The car’s share of transport is higher now than before, since public traffic was heavily affected by the covid restrictions during the pandemic. For goods transport, road transport is dominating and accounted for 88 percent of transport 2020.
Research on climate and climate change is carried out at many universities and institutes around Sweden. One of the main actors is the Rossby Centre at The Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), who mainly focus on meteorological aspects. The Centre conducts work both on model development and evaluation of data, as well as modelling applications for process studies and climate change research in support of impact and adaptation studies. Scenarios and indices on climate change in Sweden are readily available. SMHI’s website at https://www.smhi.se/en/climate/ presents climate information in the form of maps, diagrams and downloadable data, free of charge. The information is based on CMIP5. An update was made in 2021, using more models and with higher resolution to provide data. Information is also available explaining the results, including uncertainties, and how they have been developed. An introduction to climate scenarios is available. The website also contains guidance (in Swedish and English) that provides support for interpreting and using climate scenarios. Systematic climate observation includes various measurements in meteorology, hydrology and oceanography. SMHI operates networks for observation on a national level in Sweden. In addition, other monitoring research infrastructures exist that can contribute to more systematic and coherent information on the changes in marine and land-based systems.

Sweden maintains strong climate research efforts on climate models, effects of climate change on ecosystems and society and measures for reducing emissions and adapting to climate change, including technology. Research on climate change is also gaining more transdisciplinarity and integration with society. Energy research and research on societal actors, institutions and processes is likewise highly relevant for understanding mitigation and
adaptation to climate change, but it might not always be categorised as climate research.
The Rossby Centre at SMHI is the main Swedish performer of climate model development and climate projections. It contributes internationally both to global and regional climate modelling. The Centre co-leads the work of developing a new global Earth system model EC-Earth that describes several additional processes, such as dynamic vegetation as well as components for interactive atmospheric chemistry and ocean biogeochemistry. Lund University contributes to this development. Inclusion of these different parts of the climate system are necessary for the long-term study of climate effects, as climate change-induced changes in the natural carbon cycle can be quite significant, with consequences for the overall warming and cumulative emissions. A previous version of the EC-Earth was used to produce climate projections for CMIP5 Research and systematic observation by SMHI and Stockholm University. The new model version will be used in the context of CMIP6 to produce climate change projections. In Sweden, SMHI, Stockholm University and Lund University are the main contributors to this work. SMHI is a world-leading producer of regional climate scenarios. Rossby Centre has produced and made available a very large number of CORDEX simulations (Coordinated Regional Downscaling Climate Experiment) via the Swedish ESGF node (ESGF, the Earth System Grid Federation, is the international standard for sharing climate model data and is also used in the CMIP). The data is used for regional studies of climate change impacts, and SMHI has created much of its work on national climate change information and climate adaptation support based on this material. The Rossby Centre also drives the development of next-generation high-resolution regional models intended to be used for calculations at a horizontal resolution of a few kilometres. High-resolution models provide better opportunities to study weather phenomena such as high-intensity rainfall and wind conditions in complex terrain.
Climate future scenarios are avalible, describing potential changes in indicators (meteorological, hydrological and oceanografic) . There are also indicators for past and present climate.
Hazard type Acute/Chronic Observed climate hazards
WaterAcuteDrought
Flood
Heavy precipitation
Snow and ice load
ChronicChange in sea ice cover
Changing precipitation patterns and types
Ocean acidification
Precipitation hydrological variability
Saline intrusion
Sea level rise
Water scarcity
Solid massAcuteAvalanche
Landslide
Subsidence
ChronicCoastal_erosion
Soil erosion
Solifluction
TemperatureAcuteCold wave frost
Heat wave
Wildfire
ChronicChanging temperature
Permafrost thawing
Temperature variability
WindAcuteStorm
Chronic
Hazard type Acute/Chronic Future climate hazards Qualitative trend
WaterAcuteDroughtsignificantly increasing
Floodsignificantly increasing
Heavy precipitationsignificantly increasing
Snow and ice loadevolution uncertain or unknown
ChronicChange in sea ice coversignificantly decreasing
Changing precipitation patterns and typessignificantly increasing
Ocean acidificationsignificantly increasing
Precipitation hydrological variabilitysignificantly increasing
Saline intrusionsignificantly increasing
Sea level risesignificantly increasing
Water scarcitysignificantly increasing
Solid massAcuteAvalanche Futureevolution uncertain or unknown
Landslide Futuresignificantly increasing
Subsidence Futuresignificantly increasing
ChronicCoastal erosionsignificantly increasing
Soil erosionevolution uncertain or unknown
Sol degradationevolution uncertain or unknown
Solifluctionevolution uncertain or unknown
TemperatureAcuteCold wave frostsignificantly decreasing
Heat wavesignificantly increasing
Wildfiresignificantly increasing
ChronicChanging temperaturesignificantly increasing
Permafrost thawingsignificantly increasing
Temperature variabilityevolution uncertain or unknown
WindAcuteStormevolution uncertain or unknown
ChronicChanging wind patternsevolution uncertain or unknown
Many aspects of Swedish society will be affected by climate change. Heavy rainfall is already causing significant economic damage, and the occurrence of these types of events is expected to increase.

That climate change affects human health is well known, however the magnitude is hard to predict with precision, and varies with local preconditions and vulnerability. In addition, there are important impacts on infrastructure, agriculture, cultural heritage and other areas.

Wildfire and drought

Compared to many other countries, Sweden is spared from major disasters caused by extreme drought. During dry years, however, water shortages pose serious challenges in the country both locally and regionally. Mainly the eastern parts of southern and central Sweden are affected. In dry years, effects can be more serious. In the dry summer of 2018, for example, agriculture in all of Sweden was affected by drought (and high temperatures), with total estimated costs of SEK 6-10 million. During the years 1998 – 2021 around 3100 hectares of land (productive forest, other wooded land and land without trees) was affected on average. During the summer of 2018 there were many wildfires in Sweden and 24 000 hectares of land was affected by fire. The year 2014 also stands out as a year with many wildfires, where almost 15 000 hectares was affected by fire.

Health

Heatwaves are quite rare in Sweden compared with southern Europe. However, the optimal temperature varies between different countries and since the Swedish population is adapted to a cooler climate a temperature increase will affect health. Research has shown that warm periods lead to both increased mortality and morbidity in Sweden. During the summer of 2018, when the number of days with a maximum temperature of 25 degrees was the highest since measurements began, in 1945, the excess mortality reached over 700 cases.

Heavy precipitation

Events of heavy precipitation have a major impact on the Swedish society. Flooded streets and roads, collapsing roofs and ruined harvests are some of the negative effects caused by heavy precipitation. In urban areas runoff often occurs from small areas with a high proportion of impervious surfaces, and this process can be rapid. Heavy loads of snow can overload roofs. Extreme rainfall can lead to high water flows in rivers and lakes and can cause problems in cities where stormwater systems cannot handle large amounts of rainfall.

Snow, ice and zero crossings

Sweden is a large country with great variations in temperature and precipitation. This is especially apparent when looking at snow and ice cover. Large amounts of snow can cause major problems in traffic and damage to buildings, overhead power lines and trees. The problems tend to get worse when combined with strong winds or if the snow is wet and heavy. About 85% of Sweden’s exports and imports are transported via commercial shipping. This is affected by ice cover – large parts of Sweden’s waters freeze every year, and every winter many ships require icebreaker assistance to get in and out of Swedish ports. Snow and ice provide opportunities for recreation such as skiing and ice skating and for tourism.

Zero crossings can cause damage to roads, buildings, bridges and other stone constructions.

Erosion and landslides

Erosion is the effect caused by the wearing down of the landscape by running water, waves, wind and ice. In Sweden, it is mainly water erosion that is of significance to built-up areas. Coastal erosion is affected mainly by geological conditions, sea level, wave climate, wind conditions and currents. Increased precipitation and runoff can cause high flows and erosion along river banks and watercourses.

As a result of increased sea levels combined with storms, erosion will increase along the country's coasts, especially along beaches in southern Sweden that consist of erosion-prone soils. Extensive beach erosion is already taking place along parts of Skåne's south coast, where the shoreline in some places has shifted significantly inland during the last 40-year period. An increasing sea level means that the sea will reach previously unaffected land areas and expose them to erosion.

A changed climate with increased flows, more intense downpours and changed ground water conditions can lead to an increase in landslides within large parts of the country.

Transnational climate risks

Sweden is a highly globalised country, and is therefore potentially strongly affected by the effects of climate change in other countries. The global effects of climate change may include shortages of food, water and safe living environments, with consequences such as poverty, social unrest and armed conflict. For Sweden, impact on trade flows, economic development and migration are some of the areas in which transnational effects of climate change can be predicted.
Wildfire and drought

Climate scenarios indicate a decrease in water availability in large parts of southern Sweden in summer. These conditions may also increase the risk of wildfires. Drought can cause water scarcity and hamper vegetation growth. In southern Sweden the water demand is often greatest when resources are at their lowest. The consequences are the worst during events that give high temperature and little precipitation. Drought causes low water flow to waterways and low water levels in lakes, leading to water shortages and competition between different types of water use such as water supply, irrigation and sewage.

Growing season

The length of the growing season is expected to increase throughout Sweden. Changes in the timings of the growing season cause less favourable conditions for plants and animals. For example, a plant that flowers too early, before the pollinators are active, will not be pollinated. An increase in temperature will cause temperature zones to move north.

Groundwater levels

Groundwater levels will be affected by future changes in precipitation and temperature. For the northern and western parts of Sweden, the increase in precipitation could lead to an increase in groundwater levels. However, groundwater levels are expected to decrease in the southeastern parts of Sweden due to increased evaporation. The water table fluctuates between seasons and is lowest during the summer. The time period for the reduced water table during summertime may be extended because of earlier snow melt, higher temperatures and longer summers. This can cause problems for domestic water supplies. Groundwater quality may be affected by increased inflow of surface water, by changes in land use and changes in groundwater levels. Coastal aquifers will be affected due to the sea level rise, with a higher risk of salt water intrusion in domestic wells. It is not currently known to what extent this could become a problem in Sweden, where land rise still compensates for some of the sea level rise.

Zero-crossings

A day with a zero crossing is defined as a day with maximum temperature above 0°C and minimum temperature below 0°C measured two metres above the ground. It is expected that there will be a decrease in the number of zero crossings throughout the country during autumn and spring. In the wintertime the number of days with zero crossings will also decrease in the south, while there will be an increase in central and northern Sweden.

Biological systems

When the climate becomes warmer, climate zones and vegetation zones move northwards. This brings significant ecosystem changes, affecting the reproduction of plants and animals, the distribution and size of their populations and the incidence of pathogens. Endangered species may disappear, while new species may become established. Mountainous areas are particularly sensitive. The size of Sweden’s alpine areas is expected to decrease sharply as the tree line is rising, reducing the living space for species such as the arctic fox. The temperature in the Baltic Sea is increasing and the extent of the sea ice is decreasing drastically. It is also expected that the salinity of the Baltic Sea might change as a result of changes to wind conditions and the flow of fresh water from increased precipitation and drainage from watercourses. This will affect biodiversity and marine life. Warm and calm weather are prime conditions for cyanobacteria. When the cyanobacteria decompose, large areas of hypoxia – a lack of oxygen near the sea floor – are formed in the Baltic Sea, causing damage to ecosystems and fish populations.

Key affected sectors

Key affected sector(s)other
Rating of the observed impacts of key hazards, including changes in frequency and magnitudenot applicable
Different rating of the observed impacts of key hazardsdifferent geographical regions within the country; different key hazards
AssessmentCultural heritage is the tangible and intangible entities of significance to present and future generations. It can be entities as buildings, monuments, archaeological sites, landscapes, museum collections, world heritage sites and intangible culture such as traditions and knowledge. Cultural heritage plays a great role in economic growth through tourism and recreation industries. The hazards are not new, but appear in other regions, are more severe or happens more often than during the 20th century. They occur with different speed and extent: catastrophic hazards (like pandemics), rapid onset hazards (like flash floods and landslides) or slow onset hazards (like insect infestations, corrosion, draught and mould). Rising average temperatures and annual precipitation, heavy rain, flooding, landslides and erosion have been observed. Hazards co-occur. Barriers for successful adaptation is often the combination of the lack of awareness about the large diversity of cultural heritage and the lack of climate vulnerability and risk assessments. The covid pandemic showed how large negative impact unexpected hazards could have on the cultural heritage sector.
Rating of the key hazards' likelihood of occurrence and exposure to them under future climatenot applicable
Different rating of the likelihood of the occurrence of key hazards and exposure to them under future climatedifferent climate change scenarios; different geographical regions within the country; different key hazards
Rating of the vulnerability, including adaptive capacitynot applicable
Different rating of the vulnerability and/or adaptive capacitydifferent geographical regions within the country; different key hazards
AssessmentPreventive measurements and planning are the key for safeguarding cultural heritage. The adaptive capacity can be good if there is: •A preparedness for co-occurrence of hazards. •An awareness of what the cultural values are that should be protected. •An awareness that a cultural heritage object (site/building) that is well kept and has a conservation management plan based on risk assessment, stands a much better chance to meet a variety of risk scenarios. •An awareness that the vulnerabilities in a management organisation must be identified, and its ability to manage risks. •An awareness of the importance to have frequent, regular periods of supervision, inspection and maintenance of a cultural heritage object (site/building). •An awareness that a conservation policy should be written with clear follow up goals. The goals should be implemented in all documents concerning the cultural heritage object. •A good connection between the Conservation Plan (which explains the significance of an object/site, describes how the significance is vulnerable and sets out policies for retaining significance in management or alteration) and the Management Plan (which is the operational part of a conservation plan). Regular follow up and revision of these should be done. •An awareness that sustainability entails avoiding depletion of natural resources. When conservation or adaptation measurements are being done, materials that are easy to maintain, repair and reuse should be chosen.
Rating for the risk of potential future impactsnot applicable
Different rating of the risk of potential future impactsdifferent climate change scenarios; different geographical regions within the country; different key hazards
AssessmentCultural heritage plays a great role in economic growth through tourism and recreation industries. Many of the risks posed by a changing climate on cultural heritage can already be seen today, but are increasing. How effective we work today with prevention measures, maintenance and with risk analysis and monitor the impacts from climate change on the cultural heritage, will affect how large, or small, losses of cultural values we will get in the future. With more weather extremes, longer growing seasons and wetter winters, we are noticing increased hazards and higher maintenance costs for buildings, archaeological sites, world heritage sites, cultural reserves, cultural landscapes and other types of cultural heritage. The hazards involve different types of flooding, landslides, coastal erosion, deteriorating ground stability, decreasing biodiversity, changing cultural landscapes, high temperatures (affecting both indoor climate, building structures and materials), forest and grass fires, increased number of zero crossings in winter, as well as increased risks of moisture, insects, greening and mould-related damages. Larger and more intense volumes of precipitation and changed groundwater levels will increase the risk of landslides and erosion in some regions in Sweden. Higher sea levels in the south of Sweden, leading to larger risks connected to erosion affect cultural heritage in coastal areas. In some areas in Sweden planned re-location of municipalities or buildings might be the only way forward, and in those cases it is necessary to plan how to safeguard and document cultural heritage in areas that might be lost due to coastal erosion and rising sea levels. In the north of Sweden the world heritage site Laponia, rein deer husbandry, Sami culture, built cultural heritage of wood and archaeological sites, are under threat from the higher winter temperatures and the changing albedo.
Key affected sector(s)other
Rating of the observed impacts of key hazards, including changes in frequency and magnitudenot applicable
Different rating of the observed impacts of key hazardsdifferent geographical regions within the country; different key hazards
AssessmentReindeer herders are clearly noticing the effects of a changing climate, both in terms of changes in nature and weather conditions. More precipitation coming as rain during winter makes it difficult for reindeer to reach and graze on ground lichen as the wet ground freezes. In recent years, this has led to a need for extensive supportive feeding during winter. Feeding brings high costs, stress for reindeer and reindeer herders, increased spreading of disease between animals. Since reindeer herding is intimately connected with the Sami culture and has traditions very far back in time, climate change also means effects for Sami culture and other Sami industries. The world's indigenous peoples are severely affected by climate change because their survival, cultures and economic resources are directly dependent on nature. Global warming is happening faster in the Arctic, where the temperature has increased twice as fast compared to the global average. The traditional knowledge of indigenous peoples will be a key factor in meeting the challenges. They often lack the resources to adapt to climate change and risk, ending up in a very vulnerable situation. Hotter and wetter summers brings a greater risk of insect infestation, making it harder for the reindeer to graze. Seeking protection from insects take a lot of energy, which affects growth and fitness, not least for the calves. Warmer summers also mean less snow, which in turn means less protection from insects
Rating of the key hazards' likelihood of occurrence and exposure to them under future climatenot applicable
Different rating of the likelihood of the occurrence of key hazards and exposure to them under future climatedifferent climate change scenarios; different geographical regions within the country; different key hazards
Rating of the vulnerability, including adaptive capacitynot applicable
Different rating of the vulnerability and/or adaptive capacitydifferent geographical regions within the country; different key hazards
AssessmentThe IPCC stated in its latest report 2022 that it is clear that climate change affects the lifestyle and culture of indigenous peoples, as well as health and well-being. Indigenous knowledge as well as local knowledge can contribute to reducing the vulnerability of local communities to climate change. The IPCC also stated that it is important to support the self-determination of indigenous peoples, recognize their rights and to support climate adaptation based on traditional knowledge in order to achieve effective adaptation to climate change. How reindeer herding will be affected by climate change will largely depend on other factors such as predator policy, competing land use and legislation. A clear message from both research and the Sami is that the key to successful climate adaptation is to reduce vulnerability through flexibility. Flexibility is most often described as access to varied pasture for the reindeer and the ability to adapt pasture to the prevailing weather and needs. According to the Sami Parliament, active political decisions and changes in legislation are required to strengthen Sami industries and Sami culture in a changed climate. Increased influence and consideration of Sami industries and Sami culture in consultations and decision-making processes are additional measures that the research highlights as important to face a changing climate. The Sami currently have almost no influence over land, water and natural resources in the Sami areas
Rating for the risk of potential future impactsnot applicable
Different rating of the risk of potential future impactsdifferent climate change scenarios; different geographical regions within the country; different key hazards
AssessmentSudden weather changes, shifting of the seasons, changes in vegetation and increased unpredictability are some of the effects of climate change. These effects pose major challenges for reindeer herding, both now and in the future. The risks are most apparent in the winter and are not solely linked to a slow warming but also to extreme weather events. The weather conditions during winter, such as snow and ice conditions, are particular important for reindeer husbandry. This is because the availability of winter food is critical for reindeer survival and weather conditions affect grazing conditions. Warmer winters with increased number of zero crossings and rain on snow can result in increased frequency of hard ice and snow that makes it difficult for the reindeer to reach down to ground-growing lichens, which are an important source of food for reindeer. A warmer and wetter climate affects reindeer’s health. Warmer and wetter summers bring a higher risk of insect infestation for the reindeer, affecting growth and general fitness as they spend a lot of energy seeking shelter against insects. The reindeer's summer grazing can be improved by an extended growing season, which could have a positive effect on the reindeer's growth and condition. Heat waves are expected to become longer and occur more often, which in combination with other factors may contribute to more forest fires. At forest fire can wipe out winter grazing for a long time, something that happened in some places during the summer of 2018. Studies show that the psychosocial health of reindeer herders is generally worse than other Sami and climate change is likely one of several factors that contribute to this. A warmer climate means that the tree line moves upwards to higher altitudes and pasture grounds grows over, and that ground growing lichen is replaced by for example heather. A warmer climate increases forest growth, deteriorating the growth of lichen, which is an important source of food.
Key affected sector(s)agriculture and food
Rating of the observed impacts of key hazards, including changes in frequency and magnitudenot applicable
Different rating of the observed impacts of key hazardsdifferent geographical regions within the country; different key hazards
AssessmentClimate change has a very direct impact on the land-based industries, such as agriculture. The National Expert Council conclude in their 2022 report that increased average temperatures and more extreme weather events already have a negative impact on agriculture. The conditions for farming in Sweden vary greatly depending on latitude, and different regions will thus be affected differently. In Sweden climate change causes both opportunities and challenges for the agricultural sector in the short- and medium-term view. Opportunities include a longer vegetation period, the possibility to grow other varieties and crops and longer outdoor stay for animals. Challenges include extreme weather events such as droughts, heatwaves and heavy rains which can affect both crops and threaten animal production and health. Already today water shortage situations occur, particularly in the southern and south-eastern part of Sweden, and the risk of these shortages will increase in the future. Damages from heavy precipitation and flooding occur regularly and are expected to increase. The length of the growing season has increased in Sweden by on average three weeks since the beginning of the 20th century. The differences are greater in southern Sweden compared to the northern parts. The variation between years is however large
Rating of the key hazards' likelihood of occurrence and exposure to them under future climatenot applicable
Different rating of the likelihood of the occurrence of key hazards and exposure to them under future climatedifferent climate change scenarios; different geographical regions within the country; different key hazards
Rating of the vulnerability, including adaptive capacitynot applicable
Different rating of the vulnerability and/or adaptive capacitydifferent geographical regions within the country; different key hazards
AssessmentA changing climate with an increase in average temperature and changing precipitation patterns, as well as more extreme events such as heavy rain, flooding, and drought, increases risks and vulnerability within the agricultural sector. No specific assessment of vulnerability for the agricultural sector has been carried out.
Rating for the risk of potential future impactsnot applicable
Different rating of the risk of potential future impactsdifferent climate change scenarios; different geographical regions within the country; different key hazards
AssessmentA longer vegetation period and warmer winters generally favour plant cultivation, with opportunities for larger harvests and new crops. However, drought, flooding and torrential rain can cause economic damage as a result of destroyed harvests, soil damage and increased labour and production costs. A warmer climate with increased evaporation, combined with increased variation in precipitation during the summer, can lead to a decrease in soil moisture, generating poorer crop establishment and growth as a result. There is also a risk of reduced access to water for irrigation and livestock farming. A longer growing season with warmer springs and autumns provides opportunities for grazing animals to spend more time outside. However, a warmer, damper and more varied climate affects the health and wellbeing of agricultural animals. Diseases can spread more easily, and heat stress may be a more serious problem. A warmer climate may lead to more favourable conditions for plant pests and diseases and an increased risk of new pests and diseases being introduced to the country. Salt water intrusion and the following loss of farmland and pasture land pose special risks for parts of Sweden's agriculture in coastal regions and in regions below or just above sea level. The sector is also indirectly affected by processes caused by climate change around the world. Sweden is currently highly dependent on importing food, and the changed conditions for food production in other countries and the overall trading conditions may have consequences for Sweden. The global consequences of climate change may affect demand for Swedish agricultural products where other parts of Europe may be more severely affected by a changing climate.
Key affected sector(s)biodiversity (including ecosystembased approaches)
Rating of the observed impacts of key hazards, including changes in frequency and magnitudenot applicable
Different rating of the observed impacts of key hazardsdifferent geographical regions within the country; different key hazards
Assessment• Climate change is expected to lead to extensive impacts on the Swedish natural environment where several patterns of change are already visible today. Some of the key hazards to biodiversity and ecosystems include drought, shrinking habitats, vegetation zones shift, changed interaction between species and phenological changes that cause ecological miss-match. • Biotic homogenization in the Scandinavian mountain regions (Scandes), driven by an increased proportion of species that are generalists and a reduced proportion that are specialists, for example alpine species and snowbed species. • Northward shift of species, such as red fox which is negatively affecting the Swedish population of the Arctic fox. • Increased encroachment has been observed, particularly in the Scandinavian mountain regions (Scandes). Increased encroachment is one of the factors that has the greatest negative impact on a large number of red-listed species. • Several bird species have already today responded to the increasingly warmer climate by bringing forward their arrival in the spring and shifting their breeding cycle. • During recent decades a northward expansion of the tree line has been observed in the Scandinavian mountain regions. • A warmer climate is expected to increase the number of insect species as many species shift their distribution northwards, which have been observed. • Loss of costal ecosystems and habitats due to sea-level rise, costal erosion and flooding, which is becoming apparent in the southernmost parts of Sweden. • Weather-related extremes can lead to sudden disruptions in biodiversity to species, such as the severe drought that hit Sweden in 2018 which contributed to the extinction of two of Sweden’s day butterfly species.
Rating of the key hazards' likelihood of occurrence and exposure to them under future climatenot applicable
Different rating of the likelihood of the occurrence of key hazards and exposure to them under future climatedifferent climate change scenarios; different geographical regions within the country; different key hazards
Rating of the vulnerability, including adaptive capacitynot applicable
Different rating of the vulnerability and/or adaptive capacitydifferent geographical regions within the country; different key hazards
AssessmentThe Swedish Environmental Protection Agency draws the conclusion that climate change will lead to significant consequences for the Swedish natural environment and will affect all parts of the biological diversity to some extent. Almost 700 species in Sweden are affected by climate change, in several different species groups. For just under 200 of these species, climate change is of great negative significance. Only for a few species the consequences are assumed to be positive. A changing climate in combination with unsustainable land-use and land-use change leads to extensive loss of biodiversity. Thus, climate disruption compounds other existing environmental impacts and accentuates any lack of biological diversity. Conversely, a rich biodiversity is a key component of a healthy ecosystem, as this increases resilience to climatic disturbances. Thus, protecting and sustainably managing biodiversity, as well as safeguarding intact and functioning ecosystems, becomes an important part of strengthening resilience to a changing climate. Resilient ecosystems are a key factor both for sustainable climate change adaptation and mitigation. Here nature-based solutions such as protection of vital ecosystems, river restoration or conservation of wetlands play an important role.
Rating for the risk of potential future impactsnot applicable
Different rating of the risk of potential future impactsdifferent climate change scenarios; different geographical regions within the country; different key hazards
AssessmentA warmer climate with shifting and moving climate and vegetation zones brings significant ecosystem changes. Habitats and populations risk disappearing, moving or shrinking, while others may have new and expanded distribution areas. Climate change also leads to phenological changes affecting the lifecycles of species, and can cause a mis-match between species adapted to each other. Changes in geographical distribution and phenological changes affect interactions between species, food availability, susceptibility to predation or the incidence of pathogens. Rapid changes to environmental conditions often lead to favourable conditions for adaptable and short-lived species, while species growing more slowly diminish. In time, this affects the stability of entire ecosystem food webs. Extreme weather events occurring more frequently can also lead to sudden disruptions of biodiversity. Ecosystem composition is also threatened by invasive alien species, benefiting from higher temperatures. Higher temperatures, reduced snow cover and a rising tree line are expected to have extensive negative consequences for Sweden’s alpine biodiversity and habitats. Studies show that the southern Swedish alpine region is particularly impacted by increased forest cover. This could make it difficult to preserve many rare and threatened species in the southern mountainous regions. As for the northernmost parts of the Swedish alps, most vegetation types are expected to persist but as trees and shrubs elevate to higher altitudes it poses a threat to vulnerable species. Elevated water temperatures can considerably affect both freshwater and saltwater species, and species needing colder water may disappear when the temperature rises. The salinity of the Baltic Sea is expected to change, due to climatological factors such as increased flows of freshwater due to increased precipitation. These factors, in combination with acidification and eutrophication, have far-reaching effects on marine life.
Key affected sector(s)buildings
Rating of the observed impacts of key hazards, including changes in frequency and magnitudenot applicable
Different rating of the observed impacts of key hazardsdifferent key hazards
AssessmentClimate change affects the building sector in all of Sweden, but there are big differences in how municipalities in different parts of the country are affected. In some places, rising sea levels is the largest challenge, while others struggle with for example landslide risks, water shortages or a shorter tourist season. In general, climate effects associated with risks for the building sector include rising average temperatures, heatwaves, increasing average annual precipitation, increased risk for heavy rain, different types of flooding (river-, flash-, urban-, pluvial-, sewer- and coastal floods) as well as increasing risk for landslide and erosion. A mapping from 2021 of how far the municipalities have come in their climate adaptation work shows that a majority of the municipalities that participated in the survey believe that they have already been affected by climate change or extreme weather events. The main effects include increased temperature, changed flows in watercourses and heavy precipitation (flooding).
Rating of the key hazards' likelihood of occurrence and exposure to them under future climatenot applicable
Different rating of the likelihood of the occurrence of key hazards and exposure to them under future climatedifferent climate change scenarios; different geographical regions within the country; different key hazards
Rating of the vulnerability, including adaptive capacitynot applicable
Different rating of the vulnerability and/or adaptive capacitydifferent geographical regions within the country; different key hazards
AssessmentThere is currently no up to date assessment of this.
Rating for the risk of potential future impactsnot applicable
Different rating of the risk of potential future impactsdifferent climate change scenarios; different geographical regions within the country; different key hazards
AssessmentA changed climate is expected to lead to significantly increased risks for buildings, structures and their surroundings. This involves greater risk from different types of flooding (both in numbers and extent), increased risks of impact from landslides, coastal and beach erosion, deteriorating ground stability due to varying groundwater levels, high temperatures affecting both indoor climate and building structures, increased risk of forest and grass fires in connection to buildings, increased risk of contaminated soil spreading, increased number of zero crossings in winter in the northern part of Sweden affecting building structures, as well as increased risk of moisture and mould-related damage due to rising annual temperatures and increasing annual precipitation. In the context of climate change, landslides, shore erosion and flooding can lead to major disruptions and significant costs for society. The direct costs of such events can be expected to rise to 20-50 billion Swedish crowns by the year 2100 if action is not taken. A higher sea level places greater demands on measures and planning for new buildings, in particular along Sweden’s southern coasts. Higher sea levels also affect existing buildings as well as leading to larger risks connected to beach erosion Larger and more intense volumes of precipitation and changed groundwater levels may also increase the risk of landslides and erosion in different parts of Sweden. Higher temperatures lead to less need for heating, but an increased need for cooling. Historic buildings are often particularly vulnerable. Since people have long used water as a source of energy and a means of communication, these buildings are often located in sensitive areas such as along the coast. The knock-on effects that risk arising from a warmer, damper climate such as mould, more vegetation and pest infestations can also make it harder to preserve valuable cultural environments
Key affected sector(s)business; industry
Rating of the observed impacts of key hazards, including changes in frequency and magnitudenot applicable
Different rating of the observed impacts of key hazardsdifferent geographical regions within the country; different key hazards
AssessmentClimate-related physical risks such as storms, heat waves and floods are already causing large damages that affect the economy, as well as human safety and health. Different business sectors and different types of industry are affected differently by climate change. During the years 2016 to 2018, but also in 2022, large parts of Sweden experienced long periods with much less precipitation than normal. This led to low water levels in lakes, streams and aquifers, affecting drinking water supply and conditions for agriculture, forestry, industry and tourism. Other sectors, for example the housing sector, has been affected by for example flooding, causing great costs in the affected areas.
Rating of the key hazards' likelihood of occurrence and exposure to them under future climatenot applicable
Different rating of the likelihood of the occurrence of key hazards and exposure to them under future climatedifferent climate change scenarios; different geographical regions within the country; different key hazards
Rating of the vulnerability, including adaptive capacitynot applicable
Different rating of the vulnerability and/or adaptive capacitydifferent geographical regions within the country; different key hazards
AssessmentDifferent business sectors and different types of industry are vulnerable to climate change in different ways. Agriculture and the municipal sectors are vulnerable to physical climate risks, and so are the forestry, infrastructure, housing, energy and financial sectors. The transport, retail and industry sectors are vulnerable to transitional climate risks, that result from policy action taken to transition the economy off of fossil fuels, but are also vulnerable to physical risks (such as broken supply chain). Awareness about the effects of climate change on their businesses, and on what can be done to deal with those effects, is generally low among small and medium sized businesses, according to an assessment by the National Expert Council. In addition, large international companies have low awareness about physical climate risks in their international value chains. Low awareness affects the vulnerability and ability of businesses to adapt in a negative way.
Rating for the risk of potential future impactsnot applicable
Different rating of the risk of potential future impactsdifferent climate change scenarios; different geographical regions within the country; different key hazards
AssessmentDifferent business sectors and different types of industry are affected differently by climate change. Important risks for the property sector include increasing costs for damage caused by flooding, increasing insurance costs, disruptions in energy and IT-systems, as well as impact on work environment. For the manufacturing industry risks include interruption in deliveries with large economic consequences and disturbance in access to water. For the tourism sector risks include for example shorter winter season affecting snow-tourism. For the food industry important risks include lack of water, increase in pests and weeds, changed conditions for farming and animal keeping. Other general risks for business and industry include changes to access to and cost of water, energy and raw materials. Increased incidents of flooding, landslides, erosion, fires and intensive heatwaves that will affect business infrastructure. A warmer climate will also affect direct investments, insurance costs and the international transportation of goods. International transportation of goods may become more difficult as a result of rising sea levels and the increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, leading to protracted delivery times and increased costs. The likelihood of even more serious and irreversible climate effects increases with increased climate change. Because Swedish companies are largely dependent on international value chains are the exposure to climate-related physical risks tangible even though the effects often occur geographically far from Sweden. The effects of climate change will impact financial assets. Swedish direct investments in other countries may be affected, as will the direct investments of other countries in Sweden. Decreased productivity elsewhere may increase opportunities for Swedish exports such as food and wood. However, international deliveries may become more difficult, impacting imports and exports of goods and raw materials.
Key affected sector(s)coastal areas
Rating of the observed impacts of key hazards, including changes in frequency and magnitudenot applicable
Different rating of the observed impacts of key hazardsdifferent geographical regions within the country; different key hazards
AssessmentThe coastline of southern Sweden is locally affected by chronic (multiyear, decadal) erosion, which reaches a maximum of 200 m inland migration of the coastline over the past 65 years. Erosion is driven mostly by longshore sediment transport and does not display a clear relationship to recent sea level rise, but rather may reflect changes since the Little Ice Age in dominant wind direction and therefore the dominant direction of longshore sediment transport. Otherwise, the coastline is presently stable or has undergone local accumulation, also related to persistent longshore sediment transport. Some low-lying areas are also presently vulnerable to flooding during storm events. The total rise in mean global sea level for 1902–2010 was 16 cm. The rate of rise during the period 2006–2015 was about 3.6 mm, which was about 2.5 times faster than during 1901–1990. During the period 2006–2015, the sum of contributions from land ice and glaciers was greater than the effect of thermal expansion of seawater. As for the effects on Sweden's coast, these are counteracted in most of the country by land uplift, with a maximum of 9 mm/year in Västerbotten and - 0.5 mm/year in southern Scania (i.e., a lowering). However, sea level rise can now be observed in the south of Sweden.
Rating of the key hazards' likelihood of occurrence and exposure to them under future climatenot applicable
Different rating of the likelihood of the occurrence of key hazards and exposure to them under future climatedifferent climate change scenarios; different geographical regions within the country; different key hazards
Rating of the vulnerability, including adaptive capacitynot applicable
Different rating of the vulnerability and/or adaptive capacitydifferent geographical regions within the country; different key hazards
AssessmentHow much and how fast the sea level will continue to rise depends on how much the climate changes. How high the average water level will be in the future at a certain location along Sweden's coast depends on many different factors. How the global sea level affects Sweden's seas is depending on regional variations. The local sea level rise is strongly influenced by how quickly the land uplift proceeds at the location in question. Half of Sweden’s population lives within ten kilometres from the coast. Infrastructure, industries and people living near coasts what are or will be affected to sea-level rise and erosion are vulnerable unless adaptive measures are taken. Much responsibility lies with property owners and municipalities to implement measures, but in many cases these lack the capacity and legal prerequisites to implement them. Coastal ecosystems are threatened as sea levels rise. Coastal wetlands and other coastal ecosystems, will retreat landward, but when their retreat path is blocked by coastal areas hardened by different shoreline structures, such as seawalls or rock revetments, the coastal ecosystems are lost in what is known as “the coastal squeeze”. The loss of coastal wetlands from rising sea levels, reduce wetland-dependent fish and invertebrates, and reduce the valuable natural protections to coastal communities. An increase in shore erosion can also result in a coastal squeeze and loss of ecosystems especially along the Swedish sandy coasts.
Rating for the risk of potential future impactsnot applicable
Different rating of the risk of potential future impactsdifferent climate change scenarios; different geographical regions within the country; different key hazards
AssessmentThere is a high risk of erosion associated with sea level rise along parts of the southern Swedish coast. The risk varies along the coast according to: (i) the presence, or not, of erodible substrate, (ii) how flat and low-lying the landscape is, (iii) degree of exposure to winds and waves, including during storms, and (iv) the presence of urban, transport, farming, or recreational infrastructure. Key unknowns include how coastlines developed on glacial sediments comprising mixed grain-sizes will erode (and at what rate) and what the impacts of future regional climate might be, in terms of control on dominant wind directions and storm frequency and magnitude. As the climate changes, the oceans will become warmer. The increasing levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere will also result in the acidification of the oceans. This will have consequences for the ecosystems, fish stocks and the fishing industries. Increased erosion and sea levels rise along coastlines may also increase the spread of contaminants, and sea level rise coupled with overextraction of groundwater (exacerbated by increased probability of seasonal drought) will likely increase saltwater intrusion into groundwater reservoirs.
Key affected sector(s)energy
Rating of the observed impacts of key hazards, including changes in frequency and magnitudenot applicable
Different rating of the observed impacts of key hazardsdifferent geographical regions within the country; different key hazards
AssessmentThe Swedish energy supply is affected by weather and natural disasters, and that 85 percent of power outages are caused by weather-related events. Important factors in climate change that affect the power grids in Sweden are ice and snow conditions, temperature, heavy rainfalls, thunderstorms, strong winds, landslides and erosion. In the risk preparedness plan adopted by the Swedish Energy Agency in their role as competent authority in accordance with regulation (EU) 2019/941, the following weather-related crisis scenarios are included: dry period, forest fire, heat wave, heavy rainfall, flooding and dam breaches, storm, and extremely cold weather. In a comparison of the 30-year periods 1861–1890 and 1991–2020 Sweden's average temperature has increased by approximately 1.9 degrees. The increase in average temperature brings climate effects such as longer and more intense heat waves. Precipitation has generally increased in Sweden, which in combination with warmer winters can increase the risks of landslides and erosion in some places. An increase in extreme weather events increases threats to power distribution, such as the conditions for production of hydropower and increased strain on essential infrastructure and its robustness.
Rating of the key hazards' likelihood of occurrence and exposure to them under future climatenot applicable
Different rating of the likelihood of the occurrence of key hazards and exposure to them under future climatedifferent climate change scenarios; different geographical regions within the country; different key hazards
Rating of the vulnerability, including adaptive capacitynot applicable
Different rating of the vulnerability and/or adaptive capacitydifferent geographical regions within the country; different key hazards
AssessmentExtreme runoff is a key hazard for dam safety. A dam's sensitivity to changes in extreme flows is linked to the size of the change, but also to existing margins at the respective facility. The vulnerability of dams for changed or increased extreme flows thus vary, and there is a need to map this better, especially in southern Sweden.
Rating for the risk of potential future impactsnot applicable
Different rating of the risk of potential future impactsdifferent climate change scenarios; different geographical regions within the country; different key hazards
AssessmentAn increase in extreme weather events increases threats to power distribution. Increased precipitation and heavier rainfall will lead to an increased risk of landslides and floods. Other weather-related threats such as extreme heatwaves, storms, thunderstorms, sleet and icing may also increase. Events like these already pose threats to the Swedish energy system, mainly at the regional and local level. Other potential future impacts include corrosion and ground settlements/displacements on district heating systems as an effect of heavy rain. Extreme runoff can affect the safety of hydropower dams. The Swedish Electricity transmission system operator (TSO), Svenska kraftnät, has been assigned together with SMHI to map and analyse the impact of climate change on dam safety. The results will be presented to the Government in December 2023. For nuclear power, extreme heatwaves may impact the operation and economy of nuclear power plants. Prolonged periods of high temperatures can cause cooling water to heat up, which can lead to temporary reductions in effect. Warmer winters with more days with zero crossings in the northern parts of Sweden increase the risk of icing on the rotor blades of the wind turbines, something that could affect electricity production. This is considered to be the single largest threat for wind hydro power. In the south, the risk of ice formation is expected to decrease. Energy security can also be affected by changes in the annual pattern of energy use, runoff patterns for water power, higher cooling water temperatures and changes in biofuel management. None of these changes manifest any greater vulnerability of the energy security, but in combination they may weaken the Swedish energy supply chain. Many different types of weather threats, and also in combination with other external factors, can cause adverse events in the energy system. The consequences include limited access to energy, high energy prices and interruptions in delivery.
Key affected sector(s)finance and insurance
Rating of the observed impacts of key hazards, including changes in frequency and magnitudenot applicable
Different rating of the observed impacts of key hazardsdifferent geographical regions within the country; different key hazards
AssessmentPhysical financial risks are linked to physical effects of climate change. Extreme weather such as storms, floods and heat waves may pose acute physical risks to for example production facilities and value chains. Chronic physical risks (risks that arise through long-term changes of the climate) also pose financial risks, such as increased average temperatures and rising sea levels. In addition to physical and chronical risks, there are transitional risks, linked to the transition to a low-carbon economy. The importance of climate-related risks for finance are becomes increasingly clear and are gaining greater attention from central banks, investors, lenders and companies. Many physical risks such as extreme weather events have already materialized and affects the economy and the financial system today. In particular, general insurers are directly affected by climate change because part of their business model is insurance against weather-related hazards. In 2021 insured damage due to weather-related events in Sweden amounted to almost three billion SEK. Most of that was due to flooding in Gävleborg and Dalarna in August, the worst flood in Sweden, from an insurance perspective, that there is data on. Weather related damages still comprise a relatively small portion of the total damages for general insurers but can be difficult to handle because they are unpredictable and lead to highly concentrated damages. Small and medium sized local insurers are likely to be the most affected.
Rating of the key hazards' likelihood of occurrence and exposure to them under future climatenot applicable
Different rating of the likelihood of the occurrence of key hazards and exposure to them under future climatedifferent climate change scenarios; different geographical regions within the country; different key hazards
Rating of the vulnerability, including adaptive capacitynot applicable
Different rating of the vulnerability and/or adaptive capacitydifferent geographical regions within the country; different key hazards
AssessmentIncreased and better access to information about climate risks has the potential to direct investments to more resilient businesses. If physical risks are included at an earlier stage and are allowed to form a basis for investment decisions, it would lower the risk for misinvestments and avoid allocation of capital to risky activities, such as new coastal exploitations. Assessing financial climate risks is still a new field, but it is moving forward rapidly. Several accounting firms offers services to support actors in their work with different climate reporting systems such as TCFD, the EU's disclosure regulation SFDR and the taxonomy, that may be used as a basis for reducing financial risks. The insurance sectors ability to reduce risks for their customers depends on their ability to mitigate their own exposure to climate-related risks. Due to changing frequency and intensity of climate-related events the insurance companies must apply a fair pricing as well as adjust their risk assessments and management strategies. An EU-wide survey conducted by Eiopa in 2022 indicated that European insurers are generally speaking not very actively working with preventive measures. Recent development in insurance distribution contribute to this: fast paced online distribution of insurance with standardized contracts does not allow sufficiently granular risk assessment to effectively incentivize preventive measures.
Rating for the risk of potential future impactsnot applicable
Different rating of the risk of potential future impactsdifferent climate change scenarios; different geographical regions within the country; different key hazards
AssessmentA changed climate brings new conditions for both the financial and insurance industries, as it means greater costs for claims and affects investment decisions. The role of financial markets is to calculate risks, achieve profit and avoid loss. Climate change has long been absent in different types of risk analyses, even though extreme weather events can have an impact. Risks for society associated with the insurance sector include continued construction in risk areas, lack of incentives for risk reduction, unclear areas of responsibility, and municipalities accepting high risk, which increases societies exposure and vulnerability to climate related risks. Climate related risks affects the ability for insurance companies to offer insurance, increasing societies vulnerability. Insurance covers citizens and businesses against unpredictable events. If an event is no longer unpredictable, it no longer qualifies for insurance cover. This may apply to repeat flooding of a basement, for example. No insurance mechanisms currently support preventive action. Swedish home insurance typically includes cover for flooding and other weather-related hazards, but this practice may become difficult to maintain with repeated incidents and increasing costs. Cloudbursts in major cities can knock out important societal functions and the cost of damages can escalate. Beyond damage to property, business interruptions have often contributed significantly to insured damages.
Key affected sector(s)forestry
Rating of the observed impacts of key hazards, including changes in frequency and magnitudenot applicable
Different rating of the observed impacts of key hazardsdifferent geographical regions within the country; different key hazards
AssessmentAlthough climate change may include opportunities for forestry, such as possible increased growth due to a projected longer growing season, strong indications of increases in risks of forest damage exist which in turn add costs for the sector. Impacts are directly or indirectly linked to extreme events or a shift in the mean of climatic factors. Severe impact on both the sector and on society can be noted for forest fires, landslides, erosion and mudflows. • The estimated value of timber loss due to forest fires amounts to 16 million Euro per year. Recently, severe forest fires extended over near 14000 ha (2014) and near 21000 ha (2018) causing serious threat to society. • The proportion of forestry measures such as thinning and felling affecting risk areas for erosion, landslides, debris flows, and local floods are increasing. In 2018, over 4 000 felling notifications was handled in such areas. Over 40 % were judged to have a direct impact on societal functions. Other observed impacts, with noted increases over time and of high importance to the forestry sector development, are storm damage, damage by European Spruce Bark Beetle Ips typographus (2018-2022 more than 32 million m3 spruce forest was damaged, near three times the damage for 1961-2017 in total), damage by fungi causing root rot and resin-top disease, and damage due to increased grazing by moose and deer.
Rating of the key hazards' likelihood of occurrence and exposure to them under future climatenot applicable
Different rating of the likelihood of the occurrence of key hazards and exposure to them under future climatedifferent climate change scenarios; different geographical regions within the country; different key hazards
Rating of the vulnerability, including adaptive capacitynot applicable
Different rating of the vulnerability and/or adaptive capacitydifferent geographical regions within the country; different key hazards
AssessmentA longer growing season may support biomass growth, in trees and forests. However, milder winters lead to periods with lack of frozen ground which in turn may lead to more severe storm damage (e.g. in spruce forests), which in turn may lead to increased forest stand vulnerability. Hence the risk of infestations of pests increases, i.e. European Spruce Bark Beetles. They may further be supported by a warmer, drier, and longer summer season. These conditions may also aid other pests, which may harm trees. The increase in precipitation, with lack of cold days in winter, may benefit fungi, e.g. Heterobasidion parviporum on spruce. In the north recent increases in resin-top disease in pine by Cronartium pini. C. pini are assumed to have been triggered by warmer, more humid conditions, and hence such damage is estimated to increase in the future. Several of the risk factors for wildfire are expected to change, and the size and number of forest fires can be expected to increase. The length of the fire risk season is increasing, especially in the south. The biggest change is an earlier start to the season. The frequency and length of high-risk periods are also increasing. With an increase in cloud burst events, forest management in areas vulnerable to erosion and landslides is increasingly important, in order to reduce severe damage to near-by society or damage to societal infrastructure, such as roads and railroads.
Rating for the risk of potential future impactsnot applicable
Different rating of the risk of potential future impactsdifferent climate change scenarios; different geographical regions within the country; different key hazards
AssessmentAs the growing season is extended, forest growth will increase. Tree species will expand northward. Growth will however not increase everywhere. Different models show partly different effects of climate change on forest growth in Sweden. At the same time, however, there is also a risk of growth reduction in certain years and in certain regions due to water deficits. Risk of damage due to drought or reduced water availability is greatest for south-eastern Sweden and least for Norrland's interior. With milder winters, deer species have an increased survival rate, leading to increased foraging of pine and leaf vegetation. Many vermin and some pathogenic fungi will gain better conditions and be able to spread, e.g. Diplodia sapinea and Dothistroma septosporum on pine, Ips amitinus on all conifers and Ips cembrae on larch. One way to address these problems would be to increase the diversity of tree species that are planted. Also, changed future climate conditions are being addressed in Swedish plant breeding programs. The spread of root rot is more likely when harvesting occurs during the growth season. There might be increases in storm damages in the future as water levels are higher during winter and ground frost is absent. The risk of forest fires and spring frosts increases and more forest, roads that function during mild winters, are needed. Damage by vehicles in connection with logging is expected to increase and can cause several long-term effects e.g. erosion and sludging of watercourses, threatening drinking water production. Climate change affects forest biodiversity. These effects can be extensive and will take many expressions in time and space. Future decisions on forest management regimes will be an important factor in supporting a sustainable biodiversity in the landscape.
Key affected sector(s)health
Rating of the observed impacts of key hazards, including changes in frequency and magnitudenot applicable
Different rating of the observed impacts of key hazardsdifferent geographical regions within the country; different key hazards
AssessmentA changed climate in Sweden affects people's health in several different ways. Direct effects may rise in connection to extreme weather events, as well as to more long-term effects through the changing climate's impact on ecosystems, buildings, and infrastructure. The Public Health Agency of Sweden has identified heatwaves and tick-borne diseases as the largest climate related hazards for public health in Sweden, both in terms of severity and probability. Heatwaves with the magnitude seen in southern Europe are quite rare in Sweden. However, the optimal temperature varies between countries and the Swedish population and infrastructure is adapted to a cooler climate, especially in the northern parts of the country. Research has shown that heatwaves lead to both increased mortality and morbidity in Sweden. As an example, during the 2018 heatwave the excess mortality reached over 700 cases. Extreme heat in combination with high humidity can also affect the performance of health care, for example there are several cases of canceled surgeries due to affected sterile material. The number of reported cases of tick-borne encephalitis is increasing, and in 2021 the number was record high, reaching 534 cases. Climate change is one of the drivers behind this surge, due to milder winters, longer vegetation period, and more suitable environment for both ticks and their hosts.
Rating of the key hazards' likelihood of occurrence and exposure to them under future climatenot applicable
Different rating of the likelihood of the occurrence of key hazards and exposure to them under future climatedifferent climate change scenarios; different geographical regions within the country; different key hazards
Rating of the vulnerability, including adaptive capacitynot applicable
Different rating of the vulnerability and/or adaptive capacitydifferent geographical regions within the country; different key hazards
AssessmentThe health consequences vary in different parts of Sweden and the vulnerability depend on a number of factors such as coping capacity and resilience, within the health sector as well as in several health determining sectors. Of importance is the general health status of the population, demographics, the socio-economic situation, as well as prevalence of specific underlying medical conditions. Vulnerable groups are the elderly, especially people over 65 years, and people with cardiovascular and pulmonary diseases, diabetes, and people taking certain medications, as well as people with mental or physical disability. Also, pregnant women and children younger than 5 years may need extra care during heatwaves. People living in urban areas are generally more exposed during heatwaves, as the urban infrastructure and buildings create higher ambient temperatures than less densely populated areas. Buildings and infrastructure in Sweden are mainly constructed for a colder climate increasing the demand for adaptation to heatwaves.
Rating for the risk of potential future impactsnot applicable
Different rating of the risk of potential future impactsdifferent climate change scenarios; different geographical regions within the country; different key hazards
AssessmentA reduction in the number of extreme cold winter days can have a positive effect in terms of reduced cold related mortality and morbidity. On the other hand, more frequent heatwaves will increase the excess mortality and morbidity in summer time. Air pollution, particularly during wild fires, further exacerbates the health risks posed by high temperatures. The high-risk season for tick-borne diseases, for example Lyme disease and Tick Borne Encephalitis, TBE, may increase by up to four months by the end of the century. A changed climate may also contribute to the survival of new disease-carrying insects and pathogens. There may also be an increase in the spread of other zoonotic diseases. Further climate related hazards affecting human health include increased prevalence of pollen allergies, increased risk of food- and waterborne infections, and affected water quality. Other health hazards are extreme events such as wild fires and floods. Extreme weather events can challenge access to vital infrastructure and social services, such as ambulance transport, energy and food supply, and safe water. The risk of waterborne infections increases during warm summers, when more people swim outdoors more frequently. Infections caused by vibrio bacteria is expected to become more common. This naturally occurring bacteria increase in number in higher water temperatures. Higher water temperatures also increase the risk of toxic algal blooms (cyanobacteria) and the growth of gastro-intestinal bacteria. Furthermore, research in recent years has shown that people’s mental health is affected by climate change, both in connection to extreme weather events and to solastalgia, the distress caused by environmental change.
Key affected sector(s)ICT (information and communications technology)
Rating of the observed impacts of key hazards, including changes in frequency and magnitudelow
Different rating of the observed impacts of key hazardsdifferent geographical regions within the country; different key hazards
AssessmentThere is currently no up to date assessment of this.
Rating of the key hazards' likelihood of occurrence and exposure to them under future climatelow
Different rating of the likelihood of the occurrence of key hazards and exposure to them under future climate
Rating of the vulnerability, including adaptive capacitylow
Different rating of the vulnerability and/or adaptive capacity
AssessmentThe Post and Telecommunications Board states that consequences of a changed climate such as drought, global warming and floods as well as fires, heat waves, storms and dam failures are not able to cause national interruptions, and does not have the potential to cause any extensive societal consequences for Sweden's electronic communication. However, the risk assessment has not been carried out for events that could lead to local and regional outages, but only on a national level or where a large number of subscribers are affected.
Rating for the risk of potential future impactslow
Different rating of the risk of potential future impacts
AssessmentThe Post and Telecommunications Board states that consequences of a changed climate such as drought, global warming and floods as well as fires, heat waves, storms and dam failures are not able to cause national interruptions, and does not have the potential to cause any extensive societal consequences for Sweden's electronic communication. However, the risk assessment has not been carried out for events that could lead to local and regional outages, but only on a national level or where a large number of subscribers are affected.
Key affected sector(s)marine and fisheries
Rating of the observed impacts of key hazards, including changes in frequency and magnitudenot applicable
Different rating of the observed impacts of key hazardsdifferent geographical regions within the country; different key hazards
AssessmentThe changes in climate we are now observing produces consequences for the marine environment through ocean acidification, increasing temperatures and stratification, changed water flow and nutrient load from land to sea, changing salinity, as well as reduced ice extent. Altered inflow can change ocean salinity. Rising sea levels can also lead to changes in salinity. Temperature and salinity changes affect the water layering. These are examples of processes that affect eutrophication, decomposition of organic matter materials and lack of oxygen, as well as emissions of carbon dioxide and methane from eutrophic seabeds. These changes in turn produce effects on ecosystems, ecosystem services and may also lead to increased emissions of greenhouse gases. Furthermore, changes in salinity may affect the vertical transport of oxygen, the decomposition of organic material and resulting oxygen consumption and can thus increase susceptibility to eutrophication. Eutrophic systems are often sources rather than sinks of carbon dioxide and methane. As a result, the interaction between climate change and eutrophication affects the whole ecosystem, the services it provides as well as increasing emissions of greenhouse gases. As part of a cumulative load, climate change contributes to marine ecosystems becoming less resilient, e.g. reduced ability to mitigate stress caused by eutrophication, hazardous substances, marine litter, trawling, dredging and dumping. Climate change is thus a threat to the marine environment which is already under pressure. 470 species that are strongly linked to the marine environment are red listed.
Rating of the key hazards' likelihood of occurrence and exposure to them under future climatenot applicable
Different rating of the likelihood of the occurrence of key hazards and exposure to them under future climatedifferent climate change scenarios; different geographical regions within the country; different key hazards
Rating of the vulnerability, including adaptive capacitynot applicable
Different rating of the vulnerability and/or adaptive capacitydifferent geographical regions within the country; different key hazards
AssessmentA changed climate means significant changes in the ocean ecosystem as sea level, ice formation patterns, water temperature, salinity, stratification, currents, oxygenation, pH and wind and wave patterns are affected. It should be emphasized that these changes are taking place in systems which in several cases are already under great pressure from other factors, including physical impact (such as for example hydropower plants, dams, infrastructure etc.) and thus already have a reduced resilience and an increased vulnerability to climate-related change. Large-scale fishing is one of the most important factors which needs to be addressed and limited in the work of creating resilient marine ecosystems. Lack of predators as well as altered size structure of the fish community can have effects throughout the food web and makes ecosystems very vulnerable. Ecosystem-based marine management should be applied to decrease vulnerability. This aims to consider and manage different impacts on the fish in an integrated way by ensuring a sustainable use of fish stocks, both in professional and recreational fishing, while considering effects of fishing on other ecological and social sustainability goals. Still, climate change will create new and never before observed conditions in the Baltic Sea that will inevitably affect habitats and the species living there. Establishing and managing marine protected areas can increase resilience to climate change.
Rating for the risk of potential future impactsnot applicable
Different rating of the risk of potential future impactsdifferent climate change scenarios; different geographical regions within the country; different key hazards
AssessmentHabitats in both the North Sea and the Baltic Sea changes as water temperature, salinity and water currents change, and thus also the stratification of water masses as well as nutrient conditions and the oceans ability to store carbon. In addition, the carbonate system is affected, for example pH. Changes in the physical and chemical environment mean that the distribution of species and populations will be transformed to a significant extent, and in most cases negatively affect the biological diversity of existing species. The effects of a changed climate will be different in different ocean basins. As the climate changes, the oceans will become warmer. Higher water temperatures increase the pressures on marine ecosystems. The increasing levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere will also result in the acidification of the oceans. This will have consequences for the ecosystems, fish stocks and the fishing industries. Certain species of fish may benefit from warmer water, although it will have a detrimental effect on other species. Species that depend on colder surroundings are particularly sensitive to rising temperatures. Increased water temperature leads to changed conditions for phytoplankton, the ocean's most important primary producers. This means a risk for longer, earlier and new types of algal blooms. In the Baltic Sea, increased incidence of cyanobacterial blooms is expected. Increasing acidification will mean that certain sea creatures (such as oysters and mussels) will find it more difficult to grow their protective shells and skeletons. The continued acidification of the seas could lead to mass extinction of shell-forming organisms. Changes in salinity will change the species diversity in affected areas, where predictions indicate that the Northern Baltic Sea will switch from brackish water species and towards fresh water species. Climate change may also lead to an increased establishment of invasive species, changed conditions for commercial fishing.
Key affected sector(s)tourism
Rating of the observed impacts of key hazards, including changes in frequency and magnitudenot applicable
Different rating of the observed impacts of key hazardsdifferent geographical regions within the country; different key hazards
AssessmentWinters with less snow cover are already affecting the ski resorts, which are becoming more dependent on making artificial snow to aid the winter tourist season.
Rating of the key hazards' likelihood of occurrence and exposure to them under future climatenot applicable
Different rating of the likelihood of the occurrence of key hazards and exposure to them under future climatedifferent climate change scenarios; different geographical regions within the country; different key hazards
Rating of the vulnerability, including adaptive capacitynot applicable
Different rating of the vulnerability and/or adaptive capacitydifferent geographical regions within the country; different key hazards
AssessmentSome winter resorts are already adapting to a changing climate with shorter snow season, offering for example mountain bike downhill tracks and other adventure activities.
Rating for the risk of potential future impactsnot applicable
Different rating of the risk of potential future impactsdifferent climate change scenarios; different geographical regions within the country; different key hazards
AssessmentIn the north of the country, winter tourism is very important, as are opportunities for hunting and fishing. Winters with less snow cover are already affecting the ski resorts, which are becoming more dependent on making artificial snow to aid the winter tourist season. Some parts of the tourism industry could benefit from a changing climate with warmer summers, but access to water is a critical factor. Beach erosion and algal blooms pose threats to summer tourism. It is expected that both national and international tourism will increase in Sweden. The coastal areas are important both for tourists and for the recreation of the local population. The most important resources are the beaches and the water. Tourism around the Mediterranean may decrease due to warmer summers. The strong warming expected in the Alps may also lead to decreased tourism in that area. This could bring more tourism to Scandinavia. Increased tourism requires resilient infrastructure. It also means more pressure on the environment in popular areas, and access to good-quality water resources will become a key issue. Cultural tourism may be affected as cultural sites are affected by for example flooding and deterioration of building material.
Key affected sector(s)transport
Rating of the observed impacts of key hazards, including changes in frequency and magnitudenot applicable
Different rating of the observed impacts of key hazardsdifferent geographical regions within the country; different key hazards
AssessmentDifferent aspects of climate change, both observed and future, strike differently and in different ways against different types of infrastructure and traffic. The most common hazard along roads and railways are flooding due to downpours and elevated water levels of lakes and rivers. These events subsequently cause inundation and erosion during all seasons, including winter. Long-lasting traffic disturbances follow major events. Another type of flooding, although less common, is coastal flooding which develops during stormy condition, especially in western and southern Sweden. Landslides occur in regions with topographic and geological pre-conditions. They both cover and damage the infrastructure. Heat waves during summer soften the road pavement. Vegetation fires occur occasionally causing traffic disturbances, mainly in connection with dry periods. An increased rate of zero-crossings in some regions have increased road slipperiness and the need for maintenance during winter. Freeze-thaw cycles make road constructions sensitive to the load of heavy traffic during spring, which may cause subsidence and holes. Specific heat-related events along railways are lightning interference with the signal system and buckling of rail. A very common hazard with limited consequences is falling trees. Snow storms, although relatively rare at individual airports, disrupt aviation at airports. Strong winds perpendicular across runways disturb landing and take-off.
Rating of the key hazards' likelihood of occurrence and exposure to them under future climatenot applicable
Different rating of the likelihood of the occurrence of key hazards and exposure to them under future climatedifferent climate change scenarios; different geographical regions within the country; different key hazards
Rating of the vulnerability, including adaptive capacitynot applicable
Different rating of the vulnerability and/or adaptive capacitydifferent geographical regions within the country; different key hazards
AssessmentThe transport systems' ability to quickly adapt to the climate is for some hazards limited by the long life-span of infrastructure, long physical planning process as well as large socio-economic costs of large changes in the physical infrastructure. For the construction, operation and maintenance of roads, climate adaptation in many cases means relatively large changes. The relationship between climate and road construction is complex and makes it difficult to predict the effects on different constructions with climate change. In addition, the construction's prerequisites, such as for example drainage conditions, are of great importance. Since climate change generally varies between Sweden's climate zones, it is difficult to on a national level predict the impact of climate change on roads and railways. Particularly vulnerable parts of roads and railways are bridges and culverts under high road and railway banks. Ongoing and planned regional climate and vulnerability assessments identify risk prone locations and estimate risk levels along road and railways. Focused hazards are floods, erosion and landslides. Identified risk areas are examined in detail prior to decisions on climate change adaptations measures. Roads are often located close to the sea and waterways which makes them vulnerable. Risks for the aviation and shipping sectors are probably not as pronounced as within the railway and road systems.
Rating for the risk of potential future impactsnot applicable
Different rating of the risk of potential future impactsdifferent climate change scenarios; different geographical regions within the country; different key hazards
AssessmentMany of the existing climate related hazards are expected to increase in both frequency and extent as a result of climate change. Transport on roads and railways is likely to increase in the future, which places demands on a robust infrastructure. More impact is expected from extreme weather (rainfall, heat waves, storms/ thunder), high water flows and increased groundwater variations as a result of both more evaporation and drought. Changes in groundwater levels may affect drainage and buoyancy. Roads and railways, and traffic itself, will also be affected by a changed frequency of zero crossings, changed frost conditions and rising sea levels. Furthermore, the risk for erosion and landslides increases with climate change. Falling trees can also cause traffic obstructions. All of these climate related effects may lead to an increase in accidents. Higher average temperatures and heat waves may give rise to road deformations. Railways are also sensitive to high temperatures, as well as telecommunication and technical systems needed for rail transport. Aviation is not affected by climate change to a great degree. Changes in ground frost and groundwater could affect the buoyancy of the airfield, and increased precipitation could put an increased strain on airports’ stormwater systems. Heat may affect the surfacing of the runways. The need for de-icing may decrease in the south of Sweden but increase in the north, as winter days become less cold and increasingly damp. Shipping in Swedish waters is not affected by climate change to a great degree. Quays in the south of Sweden may need to be adjusted to higher water levels. Increased water flows could bring difficulties through an increased risk for erosion and landslides in narrow passages, such as canals. The risk of landslides is high along the Göta älv, which is an important shipping route in the west of Sweden, and shipping may be affected. Less ice cover and a shorter ice season are positive for shipping.
Key affected sector(s)land use planning
Rating of the observed impacts of key hazards, including changes in frequency and magnitudenot applicable
Different rating of the observed impacts of key hazardsdifferent geographical regions within the country; different key hazards
AssessmentOne of the major challenges for a sustainable community is adapting to climate change. The built environment is already affected by climate change in many ways, by for example rising sea levels, erosion, flooding and heatwaves, as well as changing annual average temperatures and precipitation, that affects for example building materials. The effects are different depending if you are referring to outdoor environment, indoor environment or constructions of different kinds. Climate change affects all of Sweden, but there are big differences in how municipalities in different parts of the country are affected. In some places, rising sea levels is the biggest problem, while others struggle with, for example, landslide risks, water shortages or a shorter tourist season. A majority of the municipalities believe that they have already been affected by climate change or extreme weather events. The municipalities mainly state that they have already been affected by increased temperatures, changed flows in watercourses and increased precipitation, as well as more extreme weather events such as flooding and drought.
Rating of the key hazards' likelihood of occurrence and exposure to them under future climatenot applicable
Different rating of the likelihood of the occurrence of key hazards and exposure to them under future climatedifferent climate change scenarios; different geographical regions within the country; different key hazards
Rating of the vulnerability, including adaptive capacitynot applicable
Different rating of the vulnerability and/or adaptive capacitydifferent geographical regions within the country; different key hazards
AssessmentThe built environment that exists today was built for a certain climate. A changing climate demands that society is planned more sustainably and flexible in order to be able to continuously adapt to changes in climatic conditions. A sustainable society needs preventive planning to reduce vulnerability, and also take advantage of opportunities that a changing climate might entail. Waterfront buildings and areas that are already often exposed to floods are especially vulnerable to the effects of climate change. This applies both along lakes and rivers and in coastal areas. Flood prevention constitutes the larges climate adaptation challenge according to the National Property Board. Historical sites represent irreplaceable values. Many environments and old cities of great cultural value are located in coastal areas, where they are vulnerable to rising sea levels and extreme weather.
Rating for the risk of potential future impactsnot applicable
Different rating of the risk of potential future impactsdifferent climate change scenarios; different geographical regions within the country; different key hazards
AssessmentExisting effects such as increased temperatures both indoors and outdoors, changed flows in watercourses and increased precipitation are expected to cause more consequences as the climate changes further. Extreme events such as different types of flooding (pluvial, fluvial, coastal), landslides and fire may also pose larger threats to the built environment. Also, slower changes such as for example a higher moisture load, is expected to lead to more problems with degradation of building materials and mould. Changes in groundwater levels may affect drainage and buoyancy. Studies on the impact of climate change on groundwater indicates that groundwater levels will drop significantly in the future, affecting existing buildings and where to build new buildings. Flooding resulting from extreme water flows are expected to become more common in large parts of Götaland, southern Svealand and northwesternmost Norrland, while the risk is estimated to be lower in northern Svealand and the rest of Norrland in a future climate. The risk of landslides is largest in the southwestern parts of the country, parts of central Sweden and areas along the river valleys in Norrland, where there are landslide-prone soils. Erosion and landslides may pose a risk in small water courses in other parts of the country as well. Furthermore, the coasts in the south of Sweden will be exposed to more erosion due to sea level rise and more intense rain that comes with climate change. Other future key hazards include increased risk of forest and grass fire in connection to buildings, increased risk of contaminated soil and water spreading, changes in number of zero crossings (increase in central and northern Sweden during winter, affecting building materials), and increased risk of moisture and mould-related damage. The demand for heating will decrease, while the need for cooling will increase.
Key affected sector(s)water management
Rating of the observed impacts of key hazards, including changes in frequency and magnitudenot applicable
Different rating of the observed impacts of key hazardsdifferent geographical regions within the country; different key hazards
AssessmentEffects of climate change on freshwater ecosystems include physical, chemical and biological effects. Physical effects include as changing temperature, precipitation, extreme weather, drought, longer growing season, flooding, brownification as well as a decreased spring flood. Chemical effects include for example changes in dissolved organic carbon. Biological effects include changed growth rate, change in warm water species, cyanobacteria, invasive species, parasites, diversity, “mismatch” of food resources, cold water species, primary production and food web stability. Climate change is already having an impact on the conditions for a secure supply of drinking water, with increased average temperatures, greater volumes of precipitation, altered drainage patterns, evaporation and groundwater formation all creating new challenges. Extreme weather events such as heatwaves, droughts, torrential rain, storms, high rivers and floods, as well as sea level rise, leads to quantitative and qualitative changes to raw water resources. Even with the current climate, parts of the country sometimes experience low water flow rates and water shortages, as well as heavy rain, causing temporary problems for food production, drinking water production and treatment of wastewater. Climate change affects hydropower in different ways. Faster melting of snow, changing precipitation patterns and higher temperatures all affect hydropower production.
Rating of the key hazards' likelihood of occurrence and exposure to them under future climatenot applicable
Different rating of the likelihood of the occurrence of key hazards and exposure to them under future climatedifferent climate change scenarios; different geographical regions within the country; different key hazards
Rating of the vulnerability, including adaptive capacitynot applicable
Different rating of the vulnerability and/or adaptive capacitydifferent geographical regions within the country; different key hazards
AssessmentMany ecosystems are already under stress from example acidification, environmental toxins, physical impact and eutrophication, making them more vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Ecosystems in lakes and streams, as well as groundwater-dependent ecosystems, are dynamic and adapts to processes in the catchment area. They are sensitive to change but also have the ability to quickly adapt to new conditions. Climate change has a direct impact on the function of freshwater ecosystems through increased water temperatures and changes in water flows and water levels. Wetlands and springs are examples of ecosystems which is completely dependent on groundwater. With reduced rainfall in summer, there may be a shortage on groundwater, which can affect groundwater dependent ecosystems.
Rating for the risk of potential future impactsnot applicable
Different rating of the risk of potential future impactsdifferent climate change scenarios; different geographical regions within the country; different key hazards
AssessmentExisting risks to water supply that are expected to become higher with climate change include increased average temperatures, greater volumes of precipitation, altered drainage patterns, evaporation and changed groundwater formation. Extreme weather events such as heatwaves, droughts, torrential rain, storms, high flows in rivers and floods can and rising sea level, lead to quantitative and qualitative changes to raw water resources. In the future, low flows are expected to occur more often in southern Sweden, primarily in the east. This may lead to drinking water shortages. The availability and quality of both surface water and groundwater might be affected. Surface water resources are more exposed than groundwater resources to a range of risk factors and are therefore more vulnerable to increases in temperature, intensity of precipitation and pollution. Periods with declining groundwater levels are expected to be longer due to an extended growing season. This will affect both groundwater quality and quantity. Groundwater-dependent ecosystems will also be affected, both terrestrial and aquatic. Another effect that may arise in some places is salt water intrusion into freshwater, affecting drinking water production. Increased frequency and duration of heavy rain will increase the risk of spreading of pollutants in catchment areas. A changing hydrological cycle impacts ecosystems, biological diversity and transport of nutrients, through for example increased occurrence of flooding and erosion in lakes and waterways. Furthermore, it may lead to a loss of ecosystem services, such as good quality drinking water and fish production, as the dynamic is changed in the great lakes (such as Vänern, Vättern and Mälaren)

Overview of institutional arrangements and governance at the national level

State agencies, including the County Administrative Boards, complete and continuously update vulnerability assessments within their areas of responsibility and within their missions, in accordance with the Adaptation Ordinance that entered into force in January 2019. A review of progress and results of adaptation since 2018 is found in the first assessment report of the National Expert Council for Adaptation. The Expert Council was established as a result of the national strategy. The first vulnerability assessment of climate change impacts in Sweden resulted in a report to the Government in 2007. The report covered the Swedish society's vulnerability to global climate change, and regional and local impacts of these changes and an assessment of the damage costs climate change may give rise to. The report ‘Climate Change Adaptation in Sweden – an overview' compiles the agency assignments proposed for climate adaptation in 2010.A revised assessment was reported to the Government in 2015
The national strategy for climate change adaptation includes Sweden’s climate change adaptation goals, guiding principles, organisation and distribution of responsibilities, monitoring, financing principles and knowledge-boosting initiatives.

There is a five-year evaluation-cycle for the National Adaptation Strategy. The first step will be a vulnerability analysis, monitoring and evaluation of the implementation of the strategy, and proposals for revisions of the strategy, followed by an updated strategy in 2023. The Government has established an Expert Council on Climate Adaptation as proposed in the Strategy. The Council is tasked to deliver a report including proposals for the national adaptation work, prioritise adaptation action, analyse the effects of climate change on society and monitor and evaluation the national adaptation work.

The Adaptation Ordinance entered into force in 2019 and regulates the work of 32 agencies and all county administrative boards in connection with climate change adaptation. Within their own areas of responsibility and within the framework of their assignments, the agencies shall initiate, support and evaluate the work involved in climate change adaptation. For instance, they shall draw up action plans for their climate change adaptation work. Each year, the agencies shall also report on their work to SMHI, which according to the ordinance shall analyse these reports, submit a summary analysis to the Government and support the agencies in their work with the ordinance.

The Government has also specifically tasked the National Board of Housing, Building and Planning with coordinating the national climate change adaptation work for the built environment. The Swedish Food Agency is responsible for national coordination of drinking water, especially concerning adaptation to climate change.

The Swedish National Knowledge Centre for Climate Change Adaptation is also run on behalf of the government and placed at SMHI. The role of the centre is to act as a hub for knowledge about climate change and to be a meeting place for actors involved in climate change adaptation. The centre operates the online portal Klimatanpassning.se and arranges different types of training opportunities.
The work to reach the Swedish Environmental targets is evaluated regularly, and in 2023 the evaluation includes a description of how climate change will affect the possibility of reaching the targets.

A proposal for a system for evaluation and monitoring of the work on adaptation in Sweden has been developed. Existing systems for monitoring of related areas were considered, mainly the Swedish environmental quality targets, The Global Sustainability Goals and the Sendai Framework for disaster risk reduction. Relevant indicators from these have been included in the proposal.
The Adaptation ordinance ensures that adaptation is integrated into the work of sectoral national authorities. When developing climate and vulnerability analyses and adaptation action plans, the effect of climate change on the entire area of responsibility should be considered, including the management of disaster risk. Climate risks should also be included in risk and vulnerability analysis that all national authorities, municipalities and regions are legally required to carry out for their area of responsibility, action plans for preventing accidents and for rescue services which municipalities are required to adopt and risk management plans for flooding developed for areas that are considered to have a significant risk of flooding.
Scenarios and indices on climate change in Sweden are readily available. SMHI presents climate information in the form of maps, diagrams and downloadable data, free of charge. Information is also available explaining the results, including uncertainties. The site also contains guidance that provides support for interpreting and using climate scenarios. The information is based on the latest generation of global climate models, scaled down to the regional level. Many national and regional authorities hold and provide data and information that is useful for adaptation, available free of charge.
The 2018 National adaptation strategy states that adaptation measures should be taken within several sectors and geographic areas. Seven priority areas are identified based on the predicted consequences for society:
• Landslides and erosion that threaten communities, infrastructure and businesses
• Flooding that threatens communities, infrastructure and businesses
• High temperatures that involve risks for the health and wellbeing of people and animals
• Water supply shortages for individuals, agriculture and industry
• Biological and ecological effects that affect sustainable development
• The impact on domestic and international food production and commerce
• Increased incidence of pests, diseases and invasive non-native species that affect people, animals and plants.
In its 2022 report, the Swedish Expert Council for Climate Adaptation identifies challenges and gaps to adaptation work in Sweden. Prioritized needs according to the Council include for example providing national goals, principles and plans to improve steering, mainstreaming and connection of climate adaptation with other policy areas (financial frameworks, civil security and transformation), ensuring knowledge needed for adaptation, ensuring cross-sectoral adaptation over administrative boundaries and creating stronger incitements (responsibilities, financial and legal) to promote implementation of necessary adaptation measures.
In the National adaptation strategy from 2018, the Government sets out that the objectives for adaptation to a changed climate are to develop a society that is sustainable and robust in the long term, and that actively deals with climate change by reducing vulnerabilities and taking advantage of opportunities. The climate change adaptation goals in the Paris Agreement and Agenda 2030 and the Sustainable Development Goals should also be achieved. These goals should be taken into consideration in policies, strategies and planning at national level, and should be integrated into ordinary operations and responsibilities. The strategy also states that climate change adaptation work should be carried out on the basis of guiding principles on sustainable development, mutuality, a scientific basis, the precautionary principle, integration of adaptation measures, flexibility, dealing with uncertainty and risk factors, a time perspective and transparency. As an important part of the national strategy, the Government established a five-year policy cycle.

The strategy also states that the main principle is that costs for protecting one’s own property is the responsibility of the owner of the property. The responsibility for preventing and repairing damage due to extreme weather events does not differ from the responsibility for other risk management in society. Incentives are thereby created to avoid developing in areas exposed to climate risks and to take suitable protective measures.

According to the strategy, climate change adaptation measures should be taken within several sectors of society and geographic areas. Based on the predicted consequences for society, the following areas are particularly important for ongoing climate change adaptation work:
• Landslides and erosion that threaten communities, infrastructure and businesses.
• Flooding that threatens communities, infrastructure and businesses.
• High temperatures that involve risks for the health and wellbeing of people and animals.
• Water supply shortages for individuals, agriculture and industry.
• Biological and ecological effects that affect sustainable development.
• The impact on domestic and international food production and commerce.
• Increased incidence of pests, diseases and invasive non-native species that affect people, animals and plants.

Climate change adaptation involves planning for today’s situation and for a time horizon which stretches decades ahead into the next century. When making long-term investments within sectors that are seen as vulnerable and socially important, climate change adaptation is of great importance. This applies to investments in infrastructure, technical support systems, buildings and structures, for example, as well as within agriculture. An increase in the frequency of landslides and flooding is expected to have significant consequences for these sectors. It is therefore important that the effects of a changed climate are taken into consideration in planning, maintaining and equipping existing buildings, facilities and systems, and when making new investments. It is of central importance in terms of socioeconomic effectiveness to do the right thing from the start, and to adapt new investments in line with a changed climate or to be prepared to adapt them in the future in a cost-effective manner.

A National Expert Council on Climate Adaptation has been formed by the government, to provide an overall picture of society’s vulnerability to climate change and how climate change adaptation work is progressing in Sweden. The Council is linked to SMHI, but operates independently.

The Government has also specifically tasked the National Board of Housing, Building and Planning with coordinating the national climate change adaptation work for the built environment.
The Adaptation Ordinance regulates the work of 32 agencies and all 21 county administrative boards in connection with climate change adaptation. Within their own areas of responsibility and within the framework of their assignments, the agencies shall initiate, support and evaluate the work involved in climate change adaptation. For instance, they shall draw up action plans for their climate change adaptation work. Each year, the agencies shall also report on their work to the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), which according to the ordinance shall analyse these reports, submit a summary analysis to the Government and support the agencies in their work according to the ordinance.

The ordinance, and the sectoral action plans that it decrees, ensures that adaptation is integrated into the work of sectoral national authorities.

All national authorities, municipalities and regions are legally required to carry out a risk and vulnerability analysis for their area of responsibility. This includes climate related risks. In addition, municipalities are required to adopt action plans for preventing accidents and for rescue services. The risk analysis behind this work includes climate related risks. Risk management plans for flooding are developed for areas that are considered to have a significant risk of flooding. These plans consider climate change.

When developing climate and vulnerability analyses and adaptation action plans, the effect of climate change on the entire area of responsibility is considered, including the management of disaster risk.
The priority areas for adaptation in the National strategy have been identified based on their impact on society, including the effects on vulnerable groups.

Heatwaves have been identified as one of the climate change effects that affect vulnerable groups particularly hard. As heatwaves increase in both frequency and severity, people in risk groups will be exposed to an even greater danger. These risk groups include older people, disabled people, young children and pregnant women, and people with heart problems. Several adaptation initiatives have been put into place to engage with these stakeholders, for example the development of action plans to be implemented in the case of a heatwave, preparation of specific care measures such as changing the diet, spending less time in the sun, the increased intake of liquids and reduced physical activity. The municipality of Kristianstad in the south of Sweden has implemented several of these actions. The work is described in detail on the Case Study part of https://klimatanpassning.se/

Justice in adaptation is an evolving field. In 2022 SMHI updated the guidelines on how to work with adaptation developed for municipalities with aspects concerning justice. The work with providing methodological support continues during 2023 to ensure that capacity improves.

SMHI's annual follow-up of the authorities' work on climate adaptation, according to the Swedish regulation on climate change, shows that most authorities involve external stakeholders in the work on climate adaptation. Several authorities mention that different networks are important for collaboration. Collaboration takes place with research, industry and interest groups and companies. In Sweden, the Sámi are considered to be particularly vulnerable to a changing climate. The importance of existing collaboration with the Sámi is particularly highlighted by one county board and the Sámi Parliament.
Industry is involved in major projects, investigations and reports on adaptation. One such example is the development of a proposal for a system for the evaluation and monitoring of the adaptation.

Within the different sectors, there are some examples of networks which bring together different actors, including industry organisations. In addition, a number of climate change adaptation initiatives are being carried out within Swedish industry. These often include collaboration between authorities, academia, industry and organisations. For example:

The Swedish Property Federation

The Swedish Property Federation is an industry organisation that works for a sustainable and effective property market. The federation represents just over 17,000 members who own commercial and residential buildings, industrial properties and housing cooperatives. It has produced a number of publications containing guidance on how property owners can adapt their properties in view of climate change.

Swedish Water

Swedish Water is the industry organisation for water service companies in Sweden. Climate change adaptation is a central theme within the organisation’s operations, and it has employees who work specifically with issues relating to pipe networks and the climate. Swedish Water also arranges an annual conference on pipe networks and the climate. It has produced a large number of publications on the theme of surface water management and climate change adaptation. Furthermore, the organization has developed sustainability indices for the municipalities water and sewage operations, as a tool to analyse and follow up the work with climate adaptation.

Insurance Sweden

The industry organization Insurance Sweden is actively involved in the debate on society’s climate change adaptation, and has produced several publications such as for example “Vem tar ansvar för klimatanpassningen? – klimatanpassning ur ett försäkringsperspektiv” (“Who takes responsibility for climate change adaptation? - adaptation from an insurance perspective”) Every two years, the organization map and rank the municipalities work with climate adaptation, together with IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute, and summarize the results in a report.

Selection of actions and (programmes of) measures

Description
The government has assigned a public enquiry reviewing existing regulations and responsibilities and, if needed, propose changes to ensure a robust and continuous delivery of water services. The purpose of the assignment is to strengthen the ability to deliver water services in the event of a crisis, heightened preparedness and based on the new conditions resulting from a changing climate. The assignment shall be reported in January 2024.
Status
studies ongoing
Key type measure (KTM)
A: Governance and Institutional
Sub-KTM
A1: Policy instruments
Description
The government has assigned a public enquiry, that will be reported in March 2024. The main purpose of the enquiry is to provide basis for constitutional regulation and a system that provides better opportunities to strengthen and develop the activities of municipalities and regions before and during peacetime crises and heightened preparedness. The current regulations will be reviewed.
Status
studies ongoing
Key type measure (KTM)
A: Governance and Institutional
Sub-KTM
A1: Policy instruments
Description
The enquiry, assigned by the government, will propose an orientation for safe food supply, including measures for involvement of the private sector. Previously suggested or ongoing measures will be evaluated and new measures proposed. The assignment shall be reported in December 2023. In addition, the government has made an investment of SEK 23 millions in order to enable measures to increase capacity in terms of preparedness in food and water supply.
Status
being implemented
Key type measure (KTM)
A: Governance and Institutional
Sub-KTM
A2: Management and Planning
Description
The government has assigned Svenska kraftnät, the authority responsible for ensuring that Sweden's transmission system for electricity is safe, environmentally sound and cost-effective, to analyze the effects of climate change on dam safety. The assignment shall be made in cooperation with other Swedish authorities and be reported in December 2023.
Status
studies ongoing
Key type measure (KTM)
A: Governance and Institutional
Sub-KTM
A2: Management and Planning
Description
The government has appointed an enquiry commissioned to carry out a pilot study on national spatial planning. Spatial planning is used to control development of land and water use through trade-offs between various public and private interests. The assignment aims to secure long-term sustainable use of land and water and an efficient spatial planning.
Status
studies ongoing
Key type measure (KTM)
A: Governance and Institutional
Sub-KTM
A2: Management and Planning
Description
The government has assigned a public enquiry that shall analyze and propose a function with responisibility for national coordination of supply readiness. Principles and financing of prepardness will be evaluated. The purpose of the enquiry is to strengthen the ability to maintain necessary supplies. The assignment shall be reported in May 2023.
Status
studies ongoing
Key type measure (KTM)
A: Governance and Institutional
Sub-KTM
A2: Management and Planning
The National Expert Council on Climate Adaptation is tasked to submit a report to the Government every five years, as support for the revision of the National Adaptation Strategy. This report shall include suggestions for the direction of the national work on adaptation; a prioritisation of adaptation action, based on an assessment of risk, cost and benefits; a concluding analysis of the effects of climate change on society, and; monitoring and evaluation of the national work on adaptation. The first report of the Expert Council was submitted in February 2022.

The Government’s Ordinance on Agencies’ Climate Change Adaptation (Adaptation Ordinance) regulates the work of 32 agencies and all 21 county administrative boards in connection with climate change adaptation. Within their own areas of responsibility and within the framework of their assignments, the agencies shall initiate, support and evaluate the work involved in climate change adaptation.

The County administrative boards are tasked to evaluate the work of municipalities. Each year, the agencies report on their work to SMHI, who analyses the reports and submits a summary analysis to the Government. The reporting is done in an online system (KLIRA). The analysis address how the authorities covered by the Ordinance have carried out the tasks in the Ordinance, the risks, opportunities and actions identified and prioritised by the authorities and obstacles and needs identified in their work on adaptation. These annual summary analyses were used by the Expert council in their report. An important added value of the reporting is that it results in a searchable database for the agencies concerned (not open access), which facilitates collaboration and learning among the authorities subjected to the ordinance.

A proposal for a system for evaluation and monitoring of the adaptation work in Sweden is presently being considered by Government. It is suggested that the system should include data on whether the vulnerability to climate change is decreasing and whether the national adaptation strategy has been implemented. The system is already partially in place for monitoring and evaluation of the work of state agencies which form an important part of such a system.
The implementation of adaptation action and adherence to the national strategy is monitored annually, and progress is evaluated every five years.

The Adaptation Ordinance regulates the work of 32 agencies and all county administrative boards in connection with climate change adaptation. Within their own areas of responsibility and within the framework of their assignments, the agencies shall initiate, support and evaluate the work involved in climate change adaptation. The County administrative boards are tasked to evaluate the work of municipalities.

Each year, the agencies report on their work to SMHI, who analyses the reports and submits a summary analysis to the Government. The reporting is done in a webbased system (KLIRA). The analysis address how the authorities covered by the Ordinance have carried out the tasks in the Ordinance, the risks, opportunities and actions identified and prioritised by the authorities and obstacles and needs identified in their work on adaptation. These annual summary analyses were used by the Expert council in their report. An important added value of the reporting is that it results in a searchable database, which facilitates collaboration and learning.

The National expert council are tasked to submit a report to Government every five years, as support for the revision of the National Adaptation Strategy. This report shall include suggestions for the direction of the national work on adaptation; a prioritisation of adaptation action, based on an assessment of risk, cost and benefits; a concluding analysis of the effects of climate change on society; monitoring and evaluation of the national work on adaptation. The first report of the Expert council was submitted in February 2022.

A proposal for a system for evaluation and monitoring of the adaptation work in Sweden is presently being considered by Government. The aim of the system is to answer the following questions: 1) Is vulnerability to climate change decreasing? and 2) Has the National Adaptation Strategy been implemented? The systems already in place for monitoring and evaluation, as described above, form an important part of such a system.
In the National Adaptation Strategy from 2018 the Swedish Government proposed a number of measures to progress the work on climate adaptation, including adjustments in the Planning and building Act; establishing of a national expert council on climate adaptation; giving the National Board of Housing, Building and Planning responsibility to coordinate the work on climate adaptation of the built environment and the adoption of an Ordinance on national authorities’ climate change adaptation work. All of these proposed measures have since then been implemented. In 2023 the Swedish Government is expected to present a new National Adaptation Strategy.

Since the adoption of the Adaptation Ordinance, which regulates the work of 32 national authorities and 21 County administrative boards, the number of authorities that have conducted climate and vulnerability analyses have increased from 32 in 2019 to 44 in 2021. Most of the authorities have adopted an action plan for their climate adaptation work and together they have adopted 176 goals for their adaptation work.

The municipalities are not required to work strategically with climate adaptation in the same way as the national authorities. However, the number of municipalities that have developed action plans for their adaptation work has increased from 30% in 2017 to 41% in 2021. Over the same period the number of municipalities that have conducted climate adaptation measures increased from 59% to 67%, and the number of municipalities that planned to conduct climate adaptation measures increased from 62% to 73% from 2017 to 2021.

Municipalities can apply for governmental funding for preventive measures against landslides, flooding and other natural events. The fund amounted to 25 MSEK in 2021 but was significantly increased to about 500 MSEK in 2022. In 2022 the municipalities applied for funding of projects amounting to 950 MSEK, which indicates that the need to implement climate adaptation measures and funding thereof is great.

In their first report, the Swedish National Expert Council for Climate Change Adaptation concludes that concerted efforts are needed in order to seriously ensure that our society is transformed in a climate-proof direction. The focus needs to be shifted from problems to solutions, and from planning to implementation. The initiatives that have been carried out to date have been unable to create the necessary societal changes. Further, the Council finds that the current distribution of responsibilities, organization and policy instruments create insufficient incentives for ensuring that the necessary adaptation measures are carried out. Broad agreements are required to allow for long-term planning and decisions.

The Expert Council proposes a number of prioritised measures at both overall and risk area-specific levels. All in all, the prioritised measures allow for stronger incentives for both the continued preparatory adaptation work and the implementation of concrete adaptation measures.
The main principle for adaptation finance is that responsibility for preventing and repairing damage due to extreme weather events lies, as for other risks, with the property owner.

Due to the high risks to human lives and the important infrastructure along the Göta älv, state funding is available through local authorities to support adaptation measures by property owners at risk. Municipalities can also use earmarked funding for preventive measures against landslides, flooding and erosion in risk areas. This funding has been substantially increased lately. Municipalities can include adaptation measures in government grant such as the greener cities grant or the Local Nature Conservation Initiative (LONA). LONA is aimed at nature-based solutions and is also open for applications from other local and regional actors. It funds measures for water retention and drought resistance such as river and wetland restoration. The Swedish EPA guides applications to the LIFE-programme.

Since 2009, the Government allocates funding for preventive and knowledge building adaptation initiatives and to enhance cooperation among stakeholders. For example, landslide, flooding and erosion mapping by the Swedish Geotechnical Institute and the Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency has improved knowledge on national risk areas, and knowledge-enhancing initiatives by SMHI have supported local adaptation actions.

Adaptation is integrated into relevant activities and sectors, and spending is not specified.
As adaptation should be integrated into all relevant activities and sectors, there is no information on the share of spending used to support adaptation within specific projects or sectors. The major part of the agencies regulated by the Adaptation ordinance state that they have integrated climate adaptation in relevant processes. Some sectoral adaptation plans include financing of measures, others do not. For example, there is support for a project offering free advice to farmers and economic support is available for establishing wetlands.

The Swedish National Knowledge Centre for Climate Adaptation, based at SMHI, is a knowledge hub for knowledge about climate change. At their online portal Klimatanpassning.se there is guidance on different ways to find funding for climate adaptation for different sectors.
Sweden has made substantial progress in implementation of adaptation actions and plans, especially since the adoption of the national strategy for climate adaptation in 2018. Many authorities and municipalities have conducted, or are planning to conduct, climate and vulnerability analysis and the number of developed action plans on climate adaptation are increasing every year. One positive example is the 2021 report from the Swedish Geotechnical Institute and the Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency pointing out ten geographical areas in Sweden most at risk from landslides, mudslides, erosion and flooding. Together with the significant increase in the Governmental funding of preventive measures against landslides, flooding and other natural accidents, this provides a good base for actions to reduce the risks and vulnerabilities in relation to these climate impacts.

Many other agencies have also presented national guidelines for adaptation concerning their business areas. Examples are the national guidelines on nature-based solutions serving as a climate adaptation tool published by the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency and the advice to be applied during heatwaves for staff in childcare published by the Public Health Agency of Sweden.

Climate adaptation initiatives in Sweden have advanced significantly in recent years to address future threats. There is a positive trend regarding municipal climate adaptation work. However, the progress of the municipalities varies widely. Large municipalities have generally made more progress compared to small and medium-sized municipalities, and coastal municipalities have come further in establishing their climate adaptation work compared with inland municipalities. There are numerous examples of successful adaptation activities in Sweden – some of them are described in the example database on www.klimatanpassning.se .

The National Knowledge Centre for Climate Adaptation has developed a guiding process for municipalities to set up and progress their climate adaptation work. Together with the County Administrative Boards the Knowledge Centre held several successful workshops in 2022 with municipalities to help them progress in their climate adaptation activities.
The report from the Swedish Expert Council on Climate Adaptation includes a general update and evaluation of the adaptation work on a national and sectoral level, as a basis for the continuing work to strengthen the adaptive capacity in Sweden.

Several actions and measures have been taken also on the sub-national level to progress the climate adaptation work and to increase the overall adaptive capacity in Sweden. Since the adoption of the Ordinance on national authorities´ climate change adaptation work, which regulates the work of 32 national authorities and 21 County administrative boards, the number of authorities that have conducted climate and vulnerability analyses have increased from 32 in 2019 to 44 in 2021. Most of the authorities have adopted an action plan for their climate adaptation work and together they have adopted 176 goals for their adaptation work.

The municipalities are not required to work strategically with climate adaptation in the same way as the national authorities. However, the number of municipalities that have developed action plans for their adaptation work has increased from 30% in 2017 to 41% in 2021. Over the same period the number of municipalities that have conducted climate adaptation measures increased from 59% to 67%, and the number of municipalities that planned to conduct climate adaptation measures increased from 62% to 73% from 2017 to 2021.

The significant increase in the Governmental funding of preventive measures against landslides, flooding and other natural accidents provides a good base for actions to reduce the risks and vulnerabilities in relation to these climate impacts and thus increase the adaptive capacity.
Sweden has made substantial progress in implementation of adaptation actions and plans, especially since 2018 when the national strategy for adaptation was introduced. Sweden has also completed a range of climate risk assessments of sectors and regions. Introducing an ordinance on adaptation has clarified responsibilities for national and regional agencies, motivating increasing adaptation actions and knowledge-enhancing initiatives.

In the National Adaptation Strategy from 2018, seven priority areas for adaptation were identified
• Landslides and erosion that threaten communities, infrastructure and businesses.
• Flooding that threatens communities, infrastructure and businesses.
• High temperatures that involve risks for the health and wellbeing of people and animals.
• Water supply shortages for individuals, agriculture and industry.
• Biological and ecological effects that affect sustainable development.
• The impact on domestic and international food production and commerce.
• Increased incidence of pests, diseases and invasive non-native species that affect people, animals and plants).

In particular, the strategy highlights the need for identifying specific risk areas in Sweden regarding landslides, flooding and erosion. Work carried out by authorities to address these is monitored annually, and an analysis is prepared by SMHI and submitted to the Government.

According to SMHI's follow-up of the authorities work on climate adaptation, the authorities are working on all the prioritized challenges. Most measures relate to flooding, landslides and erosion, and many are of analytical character.

The municipalities are also working to address adaptation priorities, primarily with measures against the risks connected to flooding and landslide/erosion.

Since 2009, the Government allocates funding for prioritised preventive and knowledge building initiatives for adaptation focusing especially on landslides, flooding and erosion. Over the years an increasing part of the funding has been directed on common knowledge-enhancing initiatives on climate change impacts across all the prioritised areas and to enhance crosscutting cooperation through development projects among stakeholders. Extensive adaptation of critical infrastructure, especially in the power sector, have generally already been implemented. The hydro power dams have been strengthened in preparation for increased precipitation and the nuclear reactors have been back-fitted to withstand very severe weather events. Continued adaptation measures are however needed within several sectors of society and geographic areas.
Identification of barriers to adaptation work has been carried out several times in Sweden. In 2015, the Kontrollstation 2015 concluded that there was a need for clearer roles and responsibilities; revision of laws and regulations; greater access to knowledge and decision support; and clarity about distribution of costs. The Climate Change Adaptation Inquiry, completed in 2017 (SOU 2017:42) , identifies that the primary barrier to climate change adaptation of buildings is the lack of funding. For the municipalities, a lack of time, knowledge and funding for concrete measures is identified as a barrier to carrying out preventive measures.

The NAS from 2018 follows up on earlier proposals for addressing identified barriers, and presents actions in order to strengthen climate change adaptation work and the national coordination of this work in the long term. Some of these actions have already been carried out, for example two changes to the Planning and Building Act (2010:900) with the aim of improving municipalities’ preparedness for climate change, which entered into force in August 2018. Other actions are underway.

As part of the annual reporting, national and regional authorities are asked to describe the barriers that they see to adaptation. The answers are analysed in SMHI's annual report to Government. The first such report, published in 2020, finds that the identified barriers are connected to lack of resources, insufficient knowledge and decision support and insufficient or unclear legislation. The division of responsibility is seen as unclear, and there are issues around lack of power to make decisions and carry out actions. The results were the same in the annual reports of 2021 and 2022.

For municipalities lack of resources is one of the largest barriers to taking action.
The first vulnerability assessment of climate change impacts in Sweden was initiated in 2005 and resulted in a report to the Government in 2007 (Sweden facing climate change – threats and opportunities; SOU 2007:60). The report covered the Swedish society's vulnerability to global climate change, and regional and local impacts of these changes and an assessment of the damage costs climate change may give rise to. A new assessment was carried out in the form of Kontrollstation 2015 and in the 2022 analysis from the National Expert Council.

As part of the implementation of the Ordinance on adaptation that entered into force in January 2019, 32 national authorities and all 21 regional County Administrative Boards shall carry out systematic climate and vulnerability assessments, which shall be updated in the event of substantial changes in operations, and at least every five years. National guidelines has been developed for the work.

Evaluation of the authorities' climate adaptation work in 2021 shows that most authorities have carried out climate and vulnerability analyses. According to the follow-up of the authorities work on climate adaptation in 2021 by SMHI, 44 of 53 authorities have updated climate and vulnerability analyses.
In the NAS from 2018, the Government states that the national strategy for climate change adaptation needs to be reviewed and updated at regular intervals, at least initially, to ensure that the system develops as intended. A policy cycle should include repeated monitoring and evaluation of climate change adaptation work, which then leads to a review of the national strategy for climate change adaptation. As an important part of the national strategy, the Government has therefore established a five-year policy cycle, which includes updating the national strategy. The Expert Council on Climate Adaptation is tasked to deliver a report including proposals for the national adaptation work, prioritization of adaptation measures, a cross-sectorial assessment of the societal impacts of climate change and a follow-up and evaluation of the national work related to adaptation.

In the beginning of 2022, the Swedish National Expert Council for Climate Change Adaptation released their first report. An updated National strategy on climate adaptation will be presented in 2023.

Good practices and lessons learnt

Not reported

Cooperation and experience

Sweden supports international goals for adaptation. The Sustainable development goals (SDG:s) and the Paris Agreement, together with the final document from the conference on financing sustainable development (the Addis Ababa Action Agenda) and the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030, form a global framework for long-term sustainable development. The Government’s adaptation work is carried out in line with the goals of Agenda 2030. The National adaptation strategy integrates the goals of Agenda 2030 and the Sendai Framework through the definition of guiding principles of adaptation.

Within the framework of the Convention on Biological Diversity, guidance has been drawn up for the parties’ work with adaptation. It is also important to highlight the opportunities in nature-based solutions. Sweden has made active contributions to the work with the voluntary guidelines, and will continue to work to find ways for achieving increased cooperation between the work for biodiversity and the climate.

As part of the EU’s Baltic Sea Strategy a proposed climate change adaptations strategy for the Baltic Sea Region has been drawn up within the BaltAdapt flagship project. Sweden was responsible for compiling the strategy via SMHI.

In recent years, the Arctic Council’s Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP) working group has worked with adaptation and resilience. The aim has been to integrate a resilience perspective into the Arctic Council’s work.

According to a report on Swedish authorities' work with climate adaptation, the authorities have identified several adaptation actions that significantly affects other national and international goals. The goals most often mentioned are Sweden's environmental goals and SDG:s, but also the Convention on Biological Diversity, Indigenous Rights, the Sendai Framework and the Paris Agreement.
Sweden collaborates within the framework of the Nordic Council of Ministers. The common Nordic research body, Nordforsk, supports research and cooperation in many areas relevant to adaptation.

The Swedish Expert Council on Climate Adaptation participates in the International Climate Councils Network.

Swedish researchers participate in many global research activities and organisations, i.e. the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, World Climate Research Program, International Council for Science, International Arctic Science Committee, Science Committee on Antarctic Research, International Ocean Discovery/Drilling Program, Global Biodiversity Information Facility, and Future Earth.

Sweden participates in the European Strategy Forum on Research Infrastructure, European Polar Board, European Incoherent Scatter Scientific Association and several EU-projects via various funders and providers. Furthermore, through its participation in the European Research Area networks Sweden contributes to strengthening funding and cooperation in research and long-term development.

Within the context of climate research, Sweden also participates in the Joint Programming Initiative JPI Climate, where Swedish funding agencies and researchers actively contribute to a common strategic research agenda. The Swedish research council Formas and the Swedish Research Council have funded Arctic climate research as well as social sciences and humanities research on climate change within the framework of JPI Climate.

Sweden participates in several collaborative projects and programs which improve the science behind adaptation, such as the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project and the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (SMHI hosts the international project office, on behalf of WCRP). Within the Arctic Council, Sweden is active in the assessments by the Arctic Monitoring Assessment Program, and has placed special focus on resilience and social-ecological issues.

The Rossby Centre at SMHI is one of the leading centres for producing and publishing high regional climate change projections, having made projections for many different regions (Europe, Africa, the Arctic, the Middle East and North Africa, South Asia as well as South, Central and North America). Swedish researchers and institutes have also contributed with climate information to international initiatives such as the Copernicus Climate Change Service. Examples for international climate services are climateinformation.org; developed by SMHI under the auspices of the Green Climate Fund.

Sweden is also contributing with research in the EU Horizon program, and several Swedish cities and regions are signatories to the charter of the EU Mission for Adaptation to Climate Change. SMHI and Swedish universities are partners in a broad range of climate-related Horizon projects; partly as coordinators.
The major part of Swedish support to adaptation in developing countries goes through the Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency Sida. Environment and climate change permeate all of Sida’s work. This is done through integration of environment and climate change in all sectors and in dialogue with partner countries, multilateral institutions and other stakeholders. Sida’s support to environment and climate change is focused on the following main areas: Increased resilience to environmental and climate change; improved institutional capacity for environmental management; sustainable management and use of biodiversity and ecosystem services: sustainable cities; food security and sustainable agriculture; integrated water resource management and sanitation; and improved access to sustainable energy. In total, Sida provided 1859 MSEK in 2021 to contribute to work on climate adaptation.

There is ongoing cooperation between the various Nordic climate change adaptation portals and European adaptation knowledge hubs, as well as through the EEA climate change adaptation portal, Climate-ADAPT. Sweden is an active participant in the Working Group on Adaptation of the European Commission, in the EEAs EIONET group and in the network of the European EPAs. Projects funded by the EU contribute to development of knowledge and enhanced cooperation. These include the EU’s Copernicus environmental data programme, which is a world leader in terms of collecting data about the Earth’s climate and other global systems. Copernicus has a long-term focus that provides reliable environmental information over time, making it possible to follow long-term trends such as changes to vegetation or water environments.

The Nordic Council of Ministers is an official body for inter-governmental co-operation in the Nordic Region. It seeks Nordic solutions wherever and whenever the countries can achieve more together than by working on their own including adaptation actions. Sweden actively supports and participates in the cooperation.

Many of Sweden’s authorities have collaborations in different ways with other Nordic countries, the EU and other international collaborations regarding climate adaptation work at a regional, national or international level.

Overview of institutional arrangements and governance at the sub-national level (where “sub-national” refers to local and regional)

There are a number of networks in Sweden that work with various issues involving climate change adaptation. Drinking water, dam safety, landslides and coastal erosion are just a few examples of operational areas.

The National Network for Adaptation consists of 32 agencies with sectoral responsibility for the adaptation of society to the current and future climate, together with county administrative boards with responsibility for coordinating climate change adaptation work at regional level. The Swedish Association of Local Authorities and Regions (SKR) is also a member of the network. The agencies of the network work together to strengthen society’s ability to deal with the positive and negative effects of climate change.
The county administrative boards (CABs) work closely together, and are part of the National Network for Adaptation. The CABs in Skåne and Halland, the Swedish Geotechnical Institute and the Geological Survey of Sweden have formed Regional Coastal Cooperation in Skåne/Halland to work together with coastal municipalities, other agencies and regional players to counter the problems of coastal erosion and rising sea levels.

The Swedish Association of Local Authorities and Regions (SKR) supports the municipalities’ climate change adaptation work, by for example participating in various networks.

Several Swedish cities and regions are signatories to the Mission on Adaptation to Climate Change Charter.
At the regional administrative level in Sweden, it is mainly the 21 county administrative boards (CABs) but also the regions who work with climate change adaptation. The CABs are tasked with coordinating climate change adaptation work regionally and implementing national objectives. The CABs climate change adaptation work is mainly governed by the Adaptation Ordinance (2018:1428).

Within their own areas of responsibility and within the framework of their assignments, the CABs shall initiate, support and evaluate the work involved in climate change adaptation. The Ordinance also includes a requirement to carry out a climate and vulnerability analysis, set targets for adaptation, draw up action plans and report on progress. In addition, the CABs must, within the remit of its mandate to coordinate regional climate adaptation work, also
• initiate, support and follow up the climate adaptation work of the municipalities,
• analyse how the county and, where necessary, neighbouring counties are affected by climate change,
• support and follow up the climate adaptation work of regional sectoral agencies,
• contribute to and produce documentation to improve knowledge and planning, and
• support the work of river coordination groups.

The climate and vulnerability analyses identify the priority areas for action within each county, and the action plans set out the actions that should be taken and when. The content and level of detail varies between the CABs.

The CABs play an important role in coordinating adaptation within the counties, and also across county borders. Since the effects of a changed climate often extend beyond county borders, this is a crucial aspect of climate change adaptation work. One area where this might be important is dealing with surface water, which often extends across large areas – sometimes several counties.

Another aspect of the CABs work involves providing the municipalities with data for their planning and project management work. The CABs have a right to review and scrutinise, and shall monitor municipal and state interests, public interests and the need for protection against accidents and human health in the municipality’s physical plans.

The CABs also have a responsibility for coordinating regional emergency preparedness, and are the highest civilian defence authority within each county. This task includes providing information, building and maintaining networks, working to ensure effective use of resources, and compiling regional risk and vulnerability analyses. They should also ensure the uniform direction of crisis management preparations and monitor preparedness preparations.

The regions are responsible for sectors such as health and medical care, public transport and regional development, but they do not have any specific assignments linked to climate change adaptation. However, the regions’ assignments within regional growth work and Swedish emergency preparedness can be understood to include also responsibility for climate change adaptation.
The priority areas for adaptation in the National strategy have been identified based on their impact on society, including the effects on vulnerable groups.

Heatwaves have been identified as one of the climate change effects that affect vulnerable groups particularly hard. As heatwaves increase in both frequency and severity, people in risk groups will be exposed to an even greater danger. These risk groups include older people, disabled people, young children and pregnant women, and people with heart problems. Several adaptation initiatives have been put into place to engage with these stakeholders, for example the development of action plans to be implemented in the case of a heatwave, preparation of specific care measures such as changing the diet, spending less time in the sun, the increased intake of liquids and reduced physical activity. The municipality of Kristianstad in the south of Sweden has implemented several of these actions. The work is described in detail on the Case Study part of https://klimatanpassning.se/

Justice in adaptation is an evolving field. In 2022 SMHI updated the guidelines on how to work with adaptation developed for municipalities with aspects concerning justice. The work with providing methodological support continues during 2023 to ensure that capacity improves.

SMHI's annual follow-up of the authorities' work on climate adaptation, according to the Swedish regulation on climate change, shows that most authorities involve external stakeholders in the work on climate adaptation. Several authorities mention that different networks are important for collaboration. Collaboration takes place with research, industry and interest groups and companies. In Sweden, the Sámi are considered to be particularly vulnerable to a changing climate. The importance of existing collaboration with the Sámi is particularly highlighted by one county board and the Sámi Parliament.
The county administrative boards (CABs) work closely together, and are part of the National Network for Adaptation. The CABs in Skåne and Halland, the Swedish Geotechnical Institute (SGI) and the Geological Survey of Sweden (SGU) have formed Regional Coastal Cooperation in Skåne/Halland to work together with coastal municipalities in Skåne and Halland, other agencies and regional players to counter the problems of coastal erosion and rising sea levels.

The Swedish Association of Local Authorities and Regions (SKR) supports the municipalities’ climate change adaptation work, by for example participating in various networks with the municipalities where climate adaptation issues are included.

Several Swedish cities and regions are signatories to the Mission on Adaptation to Climate Change Charter, aiming to better understand climate risks, prepare for coping with climate change and test innovative resilience solutions.
The Adaptation Ordinance regulates the work the county administrative boards in connection with climate change adaptation. Within their own areas of responsibility and within the framework of their assignments, the county administrative boards shall initiate, support and evaluate the work involved in climate change adaptation. They are also tasked to evaluate the work of municipalities.

Most of the county administrative boards have conducted climate and vulnerability analyses and adopted action plans for their climate adaptation work.

The municipalities are not required to work strategically with climate adaptation in the same way as the national authorities. However, the number of municipalities that have developed action plans for their adaptation work has increased from 30% in 2017 to 41% in 2021. Over the same period the number of municipalities that have conducted climate adaptation measures increased from 59% to 67%, and the number of municipalities that planned to conduct climate adaptation measures increased from 62% to 73% from 2017 to 2021.
The Government’s Ordinance on Agencies’ Climate Change Adaptation regulates the work of 32 agencies and all 21 county administrative boards in connection with climate change adaptation. Within their own areas of responsibility and within the framework of their assignments, the agencies shall initiate, support and evaluate the work involved in climate change adaptation. According to the Ordinance, the authorities shall complete risk and vulnerability assessments for their field of work, to be updated in the case of significant changes, or at least every five years. The authorities shall also complete adaptation action plans, to be updated in the case of significant changes, or at least every five years.

Many authorities had already started their work on adaptation before the entry into force of the Ordinance, and have had action plans in place for many years. In most cases, the authorities have also updated their plans at least once.
Several Swedish cities and regions are signatories to the Mission on Adaptation to Climate Change Charter, aiming to better understand climate risks, prepare for coping with climate change and test innovative resilience solutions.

SMHI

National Knowledge Centre for Climate Change Adaptation
Providing knowledge and support for adaptation. Reporting and monitoring of adaptation.
Karin Hjerpe
Manager of the National Knowledge Centre for Climate Change Adaptation
[Disclaimer]
The source of information presented in these pages is the reporting of EU Member States under 'Regulation (EU) 2018/1999 on the Governance of the Energy Union and Climate Action' and the voluntary reporting of EEA Member Countries.'