Home Database Indicators Fire Weather Index - Days With High Fire Danger, 2011-2099

Fire Weather Index - Days With High Fire Danger, 2011-2099

Context The Canadian Fire Weather Index System (FWI) is used to assess fire danger in a harmonized way across Europe. The FWI uses information about fuel moisture and weather conditions to determine fire behaviour.

Definition The incidence of high fire danger is expressed as the number of days per year with a FWI greater than 30. The calculation of the FWI is based on 24-hour accumulated precipitation and daily noon values of air temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed. The projected change in the number of days with high fire danger is calculated relative to the 1986-2005 period.

Data Sources The FWI is generated using the Global ECMWF Fire Forecasting model (GEFF). Projections from multiple global climate models downscaled to a regional climate model were used to generate the meteorological input for the GEFF model. The GEFF model was run for four different climate scenarios: the present climate (labelled 'historical'), and three Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios consistent with an optimistic emission scenario where emissions start declining beyond 2020 (RCP2.6), a scenario where emissions start declining beyond 2040 (RCP4.5) and a pessimistic scenario where emissions continue to rise throughout the century (RCP8.5). The projected changes to fire danger under future climate conditions are calculated relative to the 1986-2005 period.

Understand The FWI can be understood in terms of six danger classes based on the European Forest fire Information System (EFFIS) classification. Very low danger: FWI is less than 5.2. Low danger: FWI is between 5.2 and 11.2. Moderate danger: FWI is between 11.2 and 21.3. High danger: FWI is between 21.3 and 38.0. Very high danger: FWI is between 38.0 and 50. Extreme danger: FWI is greater than 50.

Supporting Information The data was collated on behalf of the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S). Further information about this index can be found in the C3S documentation resources in the Climate Data Store.


Visualisation and Navigation The projected change in the number of days per year with high fire danger (FWI greater than 30) is presented for three CMIP5 scenarios: RCP2.6 with low greenhouse gas emissions, RCP4.5 with medium greenhouse gas emissions and RCP8.5 with high greenhouse gas emissions.

Statistics for the number of days with high fire danger are also available via the "Explore in Detail" button as national, sub-national and trans-national area-means for which time series data can be plotted.

Projected change in the number of days with high fire danger


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Context The Canadian Fire Weather Index System (FWI) is used to assess fire danger in a harmonized way across Europe. The FWI uses information about fuel moisture and weather conditions to determine fire behaviour.

Definition The incidence of high fire danger is expressed as the number of days per year with a FWI greater than 30. The calculation of the FWI is based on 24-hour accumulated precipitation and daily noon values of air temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed. The projected change in the number of days with high fire danger is calculated relative to the 1986-2005 period.

Data Sources The FWI is generated using the Global ECMWF Fire Forecasting model (GEFF). Projections from multiple global climate models downscaled to a regional climate model were used to generate the meteorological input for the GEFF model. The GEFF model was run for four different climate scenarios: the present climate (labelled 'historical'), and three Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios consistent with an optimistic emission scenario where emissions start declining beyond 2020 (RCP2.6), a scenario where emissions start declining beyond 2040 (RCP4.5) and a pessimistic scenario where emissions continue to rise throughout the century (RCP8.5). The projected changes to fire danger under future climate conditions are calculated relative to the 1986-2005 period.

Understand The FWI can be understood in terms of six danger classes based on the European Forest fire Information System (EFFIS) classification. Very low danger: FWI is less than 5.2. Low danger: FWI is between 5.2 and 11.2. Moderate danger: FWI is between 11.2 and 21.3. High danger: FWI is between 21.3 and 38.0. Very high danger: FWI is between 38.0 and 50. Extreme danger: FWI is greater than 50.

Supporting Information The data was collated on behalf of the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S). Further information about this index can be found in the C3S documentation resources in the Climate Data Store.


Visualisation and Navigation The map shows the 30-year average of the projected change in the number of days with high fire danger for the chosen time period and scenario plotted as area means for each region. The EUROSTAT NUTS classification (Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics) is a hierarchical system for dividing up the economic territory of Europe. The size of the regions shown on the map can be adjusted by selecting the appropriate NUTS level: national level (NUTS-0), first sub-national level (NUTS-1), second sub-national level (NUTS-2), and third sub-national level (NUTS-3).

The regions on the map facilitate dynamic access to the underlying data. Hover the mouse pointer over a region to view the value of the area mean or click on a region to request a time series plot. Likewise, the trans-national average for the EEA member and cooperating countries (EEA 38) can be accessed via the "Europe" bounding box.

The statistical uncertainty associated with the climate projections is conveyed by showing the mean, best case, and worst case of the multi-model outcomes on the time series plot.

Click and hover the mouse over the time series plot to view the data values and to reveal action buttons for features such as “zoom” and “download plot as a png”. Links below the plot enable the download of time series data in the spreadsheet compatible .csv format.

Projected change in the number of days with high fire danger - Explore index

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