European Climate Risk Assessment

In May 2022, the Directorate-General for Climate Action of the European Commission (DG CLIMA) and the European Environment Agency (EEA) initiated the preparation of the first European Climate Risk Assessment (EUCRA). Published in 2024, this first EUCRA assesses current and future climate change impacts and risks relating to the environment, economy, and wider society in Europe.

Work is now underway on the second EUCRA, due to be published in Q3 2028.

Policy context

The EU Adaptation Strategy sets out how the European Union can adapt to the unavoidable impacts of climate change and become climate resilient by 2050. The strategy identifies risk assessment as a key step towards systematic adaptation in Europe. The European Parliament resolution of 15 September 2022 also urged the Commission to draw up an EU-wide climate risk assessment and to pay special attention to the risks of droughts, forest fires and health threats. The subsequent Council conclusions of 17 June 2024 call upon the Commission to continue regular EU-wide climate risk assessments, also taking into account specific national circumstances.  

The first EUCRA (2024) highlights adaptation-related policy priorities in Europe and is a key input to EU policy development to help Member States prevent and prepare for the growing impacts of climate change. It provides an EU-wide point of reference for national and subnational climate risk assessments. 

The European Commission’s Political Guidelines 2024-2029 identify climate resilience as an essential component of Europe’s overall economic security and highlight that the EUCRA will guide the new integrated framework for European climate resilience and risk management.  

The wider context of risk assessment and preparedness is informed by the Niinistö report (October 2024) which reinforces the need for a comprehensive, EU-wide, all-hazards risk assessment that integrates scenario-based approaches to anticipate shocks and strengthen resilience. Furthermore, the Draghi report on EU competitiveness (2024) highlights climate risk as a structural threat to Europe’s economic resilience, stressing that decarbonisation, energy security, and competitiveness must be addressed together to mitigate climate-related vulnerabilities. Additionally, the EU Preparedness Union Strategy (2025) calls for improved foresight and integrated assessments of risks, threats, and cascading impacts, supported by scientific evidence. The European Water Resilience Strategy sets out an approach to addressing water-related risks. 

EUCRA-2 is aligned with these and other risk and preparedness initiatives. It will serve as a cornerstone for embedding climate resilience at the core of EU decision-making, providing a comprehensive assessment and actionable insights to effectively inform policies that protect people and prosperity.  

How will EUCRA-2 be different from EUCRA-1?

Planned innovations of EUCRA-2, compared to EUCRA-1, include:  

• coverage of further policy areas affected by climate change (including social policies, domestic and international security),   
• improved quantitative underpinning of the risk assessment for selected risks,   
• more detailed analysis of adaptation options and the EU policy context,  
• stronger involvement of national and sectoral stakeholders, and  
• more systematic gathering of information from relevant EU-funded research projects.   

The geographical coverage of EUCRA-2 will be the 32 EEA member countries and the (currently) 6 EEA cooperating countries.   

What is the timeframe?

The publication of EUCRA-2 is scheduled for Q3 2028. 

Who is involved?

The European Commission's Directorate-General for Climate Action (DG CLIMA), Directorate-General for European Civil Protection and Humanitarian Aid Operations (DG ECHO), Directorate-General for Environment (DG ENV) and the EEA jointly lead the preparation of EUCRA-2.  

The development of EUCRA-2 is supported by a consortium led by Ramboll Management Consulting, in collaboration with Eurac Research, CMCC, Syke, and the Stockholm Environment Institute. The partnership will be further strengthened by sub-contracted experts who will provide specialised senior input across all relevant policy areas covered by EUCRA-2. 

EUCRA-2 will involve a wider community of practice involving European and national stakeholders, scientific experts, adaptation practitioners. Further information will be provided once these stakeholder groups have been established. 

What is the general approach and methodology?

The EUCRA applies the climate risk concept of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) and follows the risk assessment guidelines of ISO 31000 and ISO 14091 where feasible.

Source: UNDRR (adapted)

EUCRA-2 will further develop the assessment approach of EUCRA-1, considering the suggestions in the Reflection paper for EUCRA-2 by the European Topic Centre on Climate Change Adaptation and LULUCF (ETC CA). A methodology report be available in H2 2026. 

Contact

EUCRA@eea.europa.eu