European Climate Risk Assessment
In May 2022, the Directorate-General for Climate Action of the European Commission (DG CLIMA) and the European Environment Agency (EEA) initiated the preparation of the first European Climate Risk Assessment (EUCRA).
EUCRA will assess current and future climate change impacts and risks relating to the environment, economy and wider society in Europe.
The first EUCRA will be a fast-tracked and expert-driven assessment primarily based on a review and synthesis of existing data and knowledge from various sources. The assessment will focus specifically on complex climate risks such as cross-border, cascading and compound risks.
Policy context
The EU Adaptation Strategy sets out how the European Union can adapt to the unavoidable impacts of climate change and become climate resilient by 2050. The Strategy proposes to step up adaptation planning and risk assessments as one of the key steps towards achieving smarter, swifter and more systematic adaptation in Europe. It explicitly states under No. 14: “Building on its overview of natural and man-made disaster risks the European Union may face, relevant research projects, its series of PESETA reports, and taking into account existing sector regulations, the Commission will draw up an EU-wide climate risk assessment.”
The European Parliament resolution of 15 September 2022 also urged the Commission to draw up an EU-wide climate risk assessment and to pay special attention to the risks of droughts, forest fires and health threats.
The first EUCRA will support the identification of adaptation-related policy priorities in Europe and EU policy development in climate-sensitive sectors. It may also provide an EU-wide point of reference for conducting and updating national or subnational climate risk assessments.
What products will EUCRA deliver?
EUCRA will comprise the following products:
- EUCRA report (published by EEA)
- Executive summary
- Complementary products, including an interactive data viewer and technical background documents
What is the added value of EUCRA?
EUCRA seeks to complement the existing knowledge base on the assessment of climate-related hazards and risks in Europe and provide added value for policymaking in the following areas:
- Using state-of-the-art model outcomes and scientific literature;
- Systematic assessment of the magnitude of current and future key climate risks;
- Addressing compound hazards, cross-border risks, cascading risks, and systemic risks;
- Involving stakeholders from the European Commission throughout the assessment process;
- Assessing the European policy context, risk ownership, and urgency for action for each key risk; and
- Providing complementary interactive tools on climate hazards and risks.
What is the timeframe?
The publication of the first EUCRA is scheduled for spring 2024.
Who is involved?
The European Commission’s Directorate-General for Climate Action and the EEA jointly lead the preparation of EUCRA.
The implementing partners are:
- EEA
- Consortium partners of the European Topic Centre on Climate Change Adaptation and LULUCF (ETC/CA)
- Joint Research Centre (JRC) and
- Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S)
EUCRA also involves a large number of external experts, policymakers and other stakeholders during different phases of the project, including:
- An Expert Advisory Group
- A Working Group of the European Commission
- Eionet Group on Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation
What is the general approach and methodology?
EUCRA will apply the climate risk concept of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) and follow the risk assessment guidelines of ISO 31000 and ISO 14091 where feasible.
Source: UNDRR (adapted)
Which data and knowledge sources will be used?
EUCRA will build on available data and knowledge from previous assessments of climate-related hazards and risks in Europe and at the global level and coordinate with ongoing European assessments to ensure the complementarity of results.
Key sources of data and knowledge include:
- Climate data and climate scenarios (e.g. European Climate Data Explorer, Copernicus Climate Change Service, IPCC Interactive Atlas)
- Event databases and socio-economic data (e.g. DRMKC Risk Data Hub)
- Climate change impacts projections (e.g. PESETA IV and other relevant European or global research projects)
- Socio-economic scenarios (e.g. the Shared Socio-economic Pathways applied in the IPCC AR6)
- Global assessments of climate hazards and risks (e.g. IPCC AR6)
Where does the funding come from?
The project is funded by the European Commission. In addition, in-kind contributions are provided by other contributing organisations, including EEA, JRC and C3S.
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