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This indicator tracks the effects of climate change on food insecurity among European populations. It combines data from the FAO Food Insecurity Experience Scale (FIES), which investigates access to food over an eight-step scale with the frequency of heatwave days and drought months (12-month Standardised Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index) during the growing seasons of maize, rice, and wheat.

Climate change affects food security through multiple pathways. Extreme heat and droughts reduce crop yields, lower agricultural labour productivity, increase food prices, and disrupt food supply chains. These combined effects affect both food availability and affordability. Food insecurity has led to negative impacts on health in Europe, with some groups generally at a higher risk, including elderly people, those with pre-existing health conditions, and low-income households.

The indicator is calculated using a two-step approach. The first step uses a time-varying panel data regression analysis to quantify the relationship between climate extremes and food insecurity from 2014 to 2021. Heatwave days are defined as periods of at least two days where temperatures exceed the 95th percentile of historical norms, and drought frequency is defined using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI-12). The second step accounts for counterfactual scenarios that compare current climate impacts against a 1981-2010 baseline to isolate the effects of climate change on food insecurity in Europe.

Main findings

In 2023, the increasing number of heatwaves was associated with 1.05 percentage point higher moderate or severe food insecurity in Europe, compared to the baseline 1981-2010. At the same time, the increasing number of droughts increased moderate or severe food insecurity with 0.6 percentage point in Europe.

Caveats

The main caveat of the food insecurity indicator is the possible recall bias in the survey data, and the bias that may have been induced to interviews during the pandemic, being conducted by phone instead of in-person visits.

Date of publication:

2026

Keywords:
Drought, Heat, Heat stress
Climate impacts:

Non specific

Adaptation Approaches:

Observations and Scenarios

Sectors:

Health

Geographic characterisation:

Europe

Health impact:

Air pollution and aero-allergens

Reference information

Websites:
https://www.lancetcountdown.org/europe/
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanpub/article/PIIS2468-2667(26)00025-3/fulltext
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanpub/article/PIIS2468-2667(24)00055-0/fulltext
Source:

Publication:

European level data:

  • Kriit H, Chen-Xu J, Semenza J et al., 2026, 'The 2026 Europe report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: narrowing window for decisive health action'. The Lancet Public Health. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2468-2667(26)00025-3

    • Country level data:

  • van Daalen, K. R., et al., 2024, ‘The 2024 Europe report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: unprecedented warming demands unprecedented action’. The Lancet Public Health. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2468-2667(24)00055-0

    • Data sources:

    Climatic data:

    • Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), ERA5 Land Reanalysis data

    Muñoz-Sabater J, Dutra E, Agustí-Panareda A, et al. ERA5-Land: a state-of-the-art global reanalysis dataset for land applications. Earth Syst Sci Data 2021; 13(9): 4349-83

    Food insecurity data - FAO Food Insecurity Experience Scale (FIES):

    1. Cafiero C, Viviani S, Nord M. Food security measurement in a global context: The food insecurity experience scale. Measurement. 2018;116:146-152. doi:10.1016/J.MEASUREMENT.2017.10.065
    2. Ballard TJ, Kepple AW, Cafiero C, Schmidhuber J, Italy R/. Better measurement of food insecurity in the context of enhancing nutrition 1. The “Voices of the Hungry” project. doi:10.4455/eu.2014.007

    Detailed methodology:

    LSE Climate Food (In)Security Lab: Tracking the impact of climate change on food insecurity

    Contributor:
    Lancet Countdown in Europe

    Published in Climate-ADAPT: Dec 19, 2025

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    This translation is generated by eTranslation, a machine translation tool provided by the European Commission.

    Exclusion of liability
    This translation is generated by eTranslation, a machine translation tool provided by the European Commission.