Food security

This indicator tracks the effects of climate change on food insecurity among European populations. It uses data from the FAO Food Insecurity Experience Scale (FIES), which investigates access to food over an eight-step scale with the frequency of heatwave days and drought months (12-month Standardised Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index) during the growing seasons of maize, rice, sorghum, and wheat.

Nearly 60 million Europeans experienced food insecurity in Europe in 2021. In 2021, in Europe, 16.3% of those responding to the (FIES) survey reported eating only a few kinds of food; 14.4% reported being unable to eat healthy and nutritious food; and 10.6% reported eating less than they thought they should.

Climate change affects food security through multiple pathways. Extreme heat and droughts reduce crop yields, lower agricultural labour productivity, increase food prices, and disrupt food supply chains. These combined effects affect both food availability and affordability. Food insecurity has led to negative impacts on health in Europe, with some groups generally at a higher risk, including elderly people, those with pre-existing health conditions, and low-income households.

The indicator is calculated using a two-step approach. The first step uses a time-varying panel data regression analysis to quantify the relationship between climate extremes and food insecurity from 2014 to 2021. Heatwave days are defined as periods of at least two days where temperatures exceed the 95th percentile of historical norms, and drought frequency is defined using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI-12). The second step accounts for counterfactual scenarios that compare current climate impacts against a 1981-2010 baseline to isolate the effects of climate change on food insecurity in Europe.

Results show that compared to the 1981-2010 baseline, increasing frequency of heatwaves was associated with 1.12 percentage-points higher moderate or severe food insecurity in 2021; while increasing frequency of droughts resulted in food insecurity being 0.47 percentage-points higher.

Caveats

The main caveat of the food insecurity indicator is the possible recall bias in the survey data, and the bias that may have been induced to interviews during the pandemic, being conducted by phone instead of in-person visits.