Heat health early warnings

The number of heat days and their frequency is increasing in Europe, driven by climate change. Early warning systems can inform public health agencies and help ensure protective measures are taken in time to ensure effective action to reduce preventable mortality.

This indicator uses a new epidemiological framework to classify temperature into early warnings of heat-related mortality, based on early warning system Forecaster.Health. Daily warnings are based on the fraction of deaths attributable to heat exposure: low (5-10%), moderate (10-15%), high (15-20%) and extreme (≥ 20%)

Interpretation of results:

During 2015-2024 Europe experienced increase of 55% low, 101% moderate, 145% and 318% of extreme annual daily heat-health early warnings, compared to the baseline period of 1991-2000.

Caveats

The analysis is based on data from 2015 to 2019, comparing temperature and death rates. This means it does not take into account how people’s ability to cope with heat may have changed over time, for example through better adaptation or increased vulnerability.