Forecasting societies adaptive capacities to climate change (FUTURESOC)

The FUTURESOC  initiative aimed to use complex demographic models to predict social and demographic trends over the coming century. This information was collated into a resource to inform climate scenario models. FUTURESOC's major output was a 1 000-page volume containing knowledge about what will drive fertility, mortality, migration and education worldwide over the next 100 years. This was the result of input from more than 500 researchers gathered through online surveys and expert meetings on 5 continents. Other products of FUTURESOC include case studies and a theory called demographic metabolism. The project published 12 case studies on how education in a population reduced vulnerability to natural disasters. The theory of demographic metabolism put forward by FUTURESOC researchers uses the modelling of inter-generational change to predict future social change and ability to adapt to climate change. Overall, this research has provided scenario modellers with a powerful collection of resources with which to improve climate change adaptation models.