Adaptation to Climate Change in Inland Waterway Transport

This is a PhD dissertation completed in 2009. It provides answers to 5 research questions, of which the following two are relevant to climate change adaptation: (1) What is the effect of climate change on inland waterway transport prices in the river Rhine area, and, consequently, what is its effect on social welfare? (2) What is the effect of climate change on modal split in the river Rhine area?

The first research question is answered in Chapter 2. The focus in this chapter is on the part of the Rhine market that is most strongly affected by low water levels, in Kaub, a German city on the Rhine river. All inland ships that pass Kaub are restricted in their load factor when the water level at this location is below 260 cm. The regression analysis shows that the transport price per tonne may increase by 74% at extreme low water levels for an average ship. For larger ships, the transport price per tonne increases even more. In an average year (for the period 1987 – 2004), the annual welfare loss due to low water levels in the Kaub-related Rhine market is equal to € 28 million. Extending the estimation to the total Rhine market, the welfare loss amounts to € 227 million.

The second research question is answered in Chapter 3. It examines to what extent the estimated higher inland waterway transport prices in Chapter 2 result in a shift of cargo to other transport modes. The model shows how annual transport flows in the Kaub-related Rhine market adapt in scenarios which represent a year under the two most extreme climate scenarios compared with the reference scenario, which assumes a year under current climate conditions. The results demonstrate that demand for inland waterway transport (measured in tonnes) drops by 5.4 and 2.3 per cent in the most extreme and second-most extreme climate scenarios, respectively. The tonnes that are lost by inland waterways are shifted to road and rail.