Climate change impacts on the energy system: a review of trends and gaps

This paper critically reviews the literature on the impacts of climate change on the energy supply system, summarising the regional coverage of studies, trends in their results and sources of disagreement, in order to assess the current state of understanding of this topic and identify research priorities. The paper examines the ways in which these impacts have been represented in integrated assessment models of the electricity or energy system, and identifies the gaps that research still needs to fill.

The paper stresses that energy demand patterns and supply systems, whose transformation is so crucial for climate change mitigation, are themselves subject to climate change impacts. These impacts may turn both in an advantage or in a hindrance to mitigation and adaptation efforts depending on the specific impacts and sectors, so it is vital they are well understood and incorporated into models used to study energy system decarbonisation pathways.

Studies tend to agree broadly on impacts for wind, solar and thermal power stations. Projections for impacts on hydropower and bioenergy resources are more varied. Key uncertainties and gaps remain due to the variation between climate projections, modelling limitations and the regional bias of research interests. Priorities for future research include the following: further regional impact studies for developing countries; studies examining impacts of the changing variability of renewable resources, extreme weather events, and combined hazards; inclusion of multiple climate feedback mechanisms in Impact Assessment Models, accounting for adaptation options and climate model uncertainty.

The paper is open access and refers to additional supporting material, organized in two annexes and also freely accessible on the journal's website, providing extra details on the models reviewed.