Climatic change and the conservation of European biodiversity: towards the development of adaptation strategies

This report has been prepared for the ‘Group of Experts on Biodiversity and Climate Change’ of the Bern Convention and focuses upon the principles that ought to underpin the development of adaptation strategies that will maximise the conservation of biodiversity in the face of climatic change, and what these principles may mean in practice. In order to illustrate the basis from which these underpinning principles have been developed, the paper begins with essential background material, a thorough understanding of which is essential to the development of appropriate adaptation strategies. These background sections deal in turn with: the climatic changes predicted by the end of the present century; evidence from studies of the Quaternary geological period, as well as of the more recent past, showing how species have responded to past climatic changes; a discussion of how ecosystems are affected by climatic change; and an outline of the expected responses of species to projected 21 st century climatic changes. The report then sums up the key implications of this background material for the development of biodiversity conservation strategies and deals with the principles and potential practical approaches to adaptation.