Earth System Tipping Points are a threat to Europe

With global warming rapidly approaching 1.5 °C, the widespread and systemic risks of crossing several Earth System Tipping Points (ESTPs) are emerging as a major security threat for Europe. While accelerating international climate mitigation remains essential to prevent dangerous climate change and avoid the crossing of critical ESTPs—such as the collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, melting of Arctic ice sheets, and thawing of boreal permafrost—adaptation must now take center stage in Europe’s response.

Europe urgently needs a proactive and forward-looking governance framework to address the cascading and compounding effects of breaching these tipping points. This includes strengthening adaptation planning and building societal resilience to prepare for the profound disruptions that could result.

To effectively manage these risks, Europe must invest in early warning systems and ESTP-specific risk assessments that can inform robust preparedness strategies. These tools are critical to underpinning the EU Civil Protection Mechanism, the EU Climate Adaptation Strategy, and the forthcoming EU Preparedness Union Strategy.

This policy brief outlines concrete recommendations to the European Union, its member states, and international institutions on the urgent actions required to close the anticipatory governance gap and embed adaptation at the core of Europe’s climate security agenda.