PESETA II - Health impacts and related costs of climate change in Europe

PESETA II quantifies climate change impacts in Europe for the next 90 years, for a number of sectors including health. The health-specific component of PESETA II received much input from the three earlier EU-wide studies PESETA I, ClimateCost and PHEWE. As a result, PESETA II extends the scope of ist predecessor studies to also include vector-borne diseases, air pollution, additional food/water-borne diseases, and corollary effects of undernutrition and natural disasters (while now omitting effects of cold spells and, notably, UV-radiation). Moreover, the impact model now features an all-in-one assessment tool to assess simultaneous impacts of different factors. In addition to adaptation, also the mitigating effect of acclimatisation (“getting used to heat”) is accounted for. The study predicts a more than threefold increase (total) in climate-attributable deaths, Europe-wide, from the period 2010–40 until 2071–2100, and the inclusion of extreme weather events (natural disaster) might significantly increase this toll. However, the authors underline the major sources of uncertainty encountered; predominantly those connected with forecasting i) climate, ii) demography, iii) exact relationship climate-mortality, and iv) future development of economic key parameters for the monetisation of health effects.