Uncertainty and Climate Change Adaptation - a Scoping Study

This report reviews state-of-the-art of methods and tools available in the literature in helping inform adaptation decisions. It focuses on the assessment of climate change uncertainties. Further, the report reviews existing frameworks for decision making under uncertainty for adaptation to climate change. The report explores how different ways of including uncertainty in decision making match with uncertainty information provided by the various uncertainty assessment methods. It reviews a broad range of areas of climate change impacts and impacted sectors of society and economy that may require a response of planned adaptation. Three interrelated questions are addressed in this study: (1) To what climate changes do we need to adapt where, and what parties are involved in adaptation decision making? (2) What decision making frameworks for adaptation and strategies for accounting for uncertainty in adaptation are proposed in the literature and or used in other countries?, and (3) What methods are available to assess climate change impact uncertainties to inform adaptation decisions? Reference: Dessai, S. and van der Sluijs, J. P. (2007) Uncertainty and Climate Change Adaptation - a Scoping Study. Copernicus Institute for Sustainable Development and Innovation, Utrecht, NL.