Vulnerability/Adaptation for Transport in France

The impacts of climate change, while widespread, are inherently confined to specific locations and thus demand that adaptation to changes in climatic conditions occur locally and/or regionally. This paper identifies the risks posed by climate change to transport infrastructures in France, the concerned actors and potential adaptive measures. Ground (round and rail), aviation and internal navigation are taken into consideration. Vulnerabilities to changes in both seasonal and extreme climatic events are assessed using the outputs of two IPCC global climate models (A2 and B2) downscaled to the French territory by MeteoFrance/IPSL to assess potential changes in temperature and precipitation in France. The graphical analysis of the potential impacts of over the French territory serves to elucidate the possible location and extent of impacts. Paired with an analysis and description of physical and operational impacts for each mode, the paper indicates that a number of infrastructures are potentially at risk and further, more detailed analysis is necessary concerning vintage, construction norms and geographical context. Changes in climatic averages may also lead to changes in transport infrastructure demand stemming from modified tourism flows and from agricultural production. Adaptive measures focus primarily on changes in planning procedures and technical criteria to better adjust new infrastructure to a changing climate as well as the retrofitting and, in certain cases, the protection of existing infrastructures. Equally, it may be necessary to rethink concession-granting and the contracting of transport services and infrastructure maintenance to incentivize adaptive measures. Success in these efforts will depend on the ability of the large number of actors involved in the planning, construction, maintenance and operation of transport infrastructures to develop and implement coherent approaches