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EXAUSTION project

Health Impact Projections

The Health Impact Projection tool visualizes the impact of various possible future events on mortality across European cities. Specifically, future climate, emissions, and policy scenarios defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and known as Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways. It shows data for 854 cities, the historical period of 1990-2019, and the projection period of 2020-2099. It stresses the significance of policies which help countries or communities adapt to changing environments and ultimately reduce the health risks.

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What you can do with it

Input

  • Select a city, climate scenario and adaptation level.
  • Explore future heat-related and cold-related mortality projections.
  • Compare climate-only and broader socioeconomic scenarios.

Output

  • Maps and visualisations.
  • Health-impact indicators.
  • Mortality projections for European cities.
  • Scenario comparisons across time periods and adaptation levels.

Use it to

  • Assess future health impacts of climate change.
  • Compare heat-related and cold-related mortality outcomes.
  • Explore the effect of different adaptation assumptions.
  • Support health-related climate risk assessments.

Why is it relevant to climate adaptation

Helps users translate climate projections into health outcomes that are meaningful for decision-making. By showing how mortality may change under different climate, demographic and adaptation assumptions, it makes future health risks easier to understand and compare across European cities.

Used in

  • Assessment of heat-related and cold-related mortality in 854 European cities.
  • Analysis of alternative adaptation ambition levels developed through the EXHAUSTION project.
  • European health-risk assessments under climate and socio-economic scenarios.
  • Research based on the modelling framework published by Masselot et al. (2025).

Metadata

User Group
Commission services and/or AgenciesTransboundary networksNational authorities
Geographic coverage
Europe
Spatial resolution

Local; NUTS0

Support of Adaptation Policy Cycle
Step 2: Assessing Climate Change Risks and Vulnerabilities
Adaptation sectors
Health
Climate hazards
Heat
Type of outputs
Maps and graphsDatasets and indicators
Temporality of data
Historical/pastPresentForward-looking
Language
English
Accessibility and usability
Moderate
Data sources
Public datasets from external providersProject-generated or processed datasets
Tool validation use
Expert validation / reputable institution

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This translation is generated by eTranslation, a machine translation tool provided by the European Commission.

Exclusion of liability
This translation is generated by eTranslation, a machine translation tool provided by the European Commission.