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FICLIMA - CSIC

Mortality attributable in Summer to Heat in Spain

The MACE (Mortalidad Atribuible al Calor en España) application estimates and visualises daily heat-attributable mortality during summer (June–August) across Spain. It uses daily all-cause mortality data from the MoMo surveillance system of the Instituto Nacional de Salud (ISCIII) and daily mean temperature data provided by the Spanish Meteorological Agency (AEMET). Mortality fractions are estimated using a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM). The tool enables users to explore temporal trends in heat-related mortality at national level and supports evidence-based climate adaptation planning in the health sector.

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What you can do with it

Input

  • Select a summer period and explore heat-attributable mortality in Spain.
  • Examine national and provincial results derived from daily mortality and temperature observations.
  • Explore daily and cumulative mortality estimates and attributable fractions.
  • Compare temporal trends from available historical records and near-real-time summer updates.
  • Track trends relevant to monitoring and evaluation.

Output

  • Interactive time-series graphs.
  • Daily and cumulative heat-attributable death estimates.
  • Heat-attributable mortality fractions and summary statistics.
  • Provincial choropleth maps at NUTS3 level.
  • Historical and near-real-time summer monitoring information.

Use it to

  • Monitor heat-attributable mortality during summer in Spain.
  • Examine how the health burden of heat changes over time.
  • Identify provinces with higher estimated heat-related mortality.
  • Support heat-health risk assessment and adaptation planning.
  • Inform public-health briefings, science communication and national heat-action planning.

Why is it relevant to climate adaptation

Turns official mortality and temperature observations into a clear, near-real-time picture of the health burden of summer heat in Spain. This gives public-health authorities, policymakers, journalists and citizens an outcome that is easier to interpret than temperature alone: estimated deaths attributable to heat. Its annually updated results can support both risk assessment and trend monitoring, but the tool is limited to summer, all-cause mortality and observed conditions, with no current climate-scenario projections or downloadable data.

Used in

  • Near-real-time summer heat-mortality monitoring across Spain.
  • Provincial heat-health analysis using MoMo mortality data from ISCIII and temperature data from AEMET.
  • Reference information used in Spanish national heat-action planning and official health reporting.
  • Heat-health research and communication by BIOCLIMA/MBG-CSIC, IDAEA-CSIC, the University of Valencia and FICLIMA.

Metadata

User Group
Commission services and/or AgenciesNational authoritiesSubnational authorities
Geographic coverage
Countries:
Spain
Spatial resolution

Local; NUTS3 level

Support of Adaptation Policy Cycle
Step 2: Assessing Climate Change Risks and Vulnerabilities
Step 6: Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E)
Adaptation sectors
Disaster Risk ReductionHealth
Climate hazards
HeatCold waves / extreme cold
Type of outputs
Maps and graphsReports and decision supportDatasets and indicators
Temporality of data
Historical/pastPresentForward-looking
Language
English, Spanish
Accessibility and usability
High
Data sources
Public datasets from external providersProject-generated or processed datasets
Tool validation use
Peer-reviewed methodologyExpert validation / reputable institution

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This translation is generated by eTranslation, a machine translation tool provided by the European Commission.