Information on national adaptation actions reported under the Governance Regulation
Reporting updated until: 2023-05-31
Item | Status | Links |
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Meteorological observations |
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Climate projections and services |
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Adaptation portals and platforms |
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Monitoring, reporting and evaluation (MRE) indicators and methodologies |
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Key reports and publications |
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National communication to the UNFCCC | ||
Governance regulation adaptation reporting |
The European Landscape Classification that uses data on climate, elevation, soil and land use, classifies Slovenia under three types Mediterranean, Continental and Alpine. Due to such diverse geology in such a small area, there are greater landslide and debris-flow susceptibilities, even more pronounced as triggering factors such as 24h rainfall and average rainfall intensity are changing and are further projected to change due to climate change by the end of the century. The Map of Biogeographical Regions, generally based on natural vegetation, puts Slovenia into Alpine and Continental region, only partially touching Pannonian and Mediterranean regions. As much as 58.3% of the surface of Slovenia is covered in forests, composing 70% of Natura 2000 sites. Natura 2000 sites cover about 37% of the country’s territory, while more than half of the territory is areas of special interest. The great amount of animal and plant species as well as diversity of ecosystems that are found in Slovenia contribute to country’s resilience to climate change impacts. On the other hand, there is also greater risk of broader forest fires and other consequences of extreme weather events. The Bioclimatic Map of Europe divides Slovenia into Temperate Oceanic bioclimate to the West, and Temperate Continental bioclimate to the East. Slovenia has a warm humid temperate climate but the climate is not typical due to the transit character and variability of its territorial types. Data show that the climate in Slovenia has already significantly changed in the period up to year 2021, mean temperature being more than 2,5 degrees higher than in pre-industrial times. With rising temperature other climate characteristics are changing as well. The decreasing precipitation trend in the west of the country has slowed over the last decade and the climate projections predict that it would turn into a rising one across the whole country in the coming decades. Snow cover, as an important natural water retention element, has halved in the last six decades. That has already a significant influence on the river flow regime, with lower late spring peak and higher late autumn peak. Although the extreme events are rare by definition and therefore it is difficult to detect their significant change it is evident that all climate indicators for extreme heat, extreme precipitation and drought show increasing trend for their intensity as well as for their frequency and durability.
The divisions confirm that it is difficult to assign a single label to a country with such a wide variety of landscapes and regions as it’s the case of Slovenia. This contributes to its resilience in the face of large scale extreme weather events, but also add to its vulnerability in terms of many species and habitats that are difficult to maintain in good status with the fast changing climate or higher risks for avalanches, floods and other events linked to increasingly more present extreme weather.
There have not been any relevant developments since 2021.
Slovenia’s Development Report 2020 (IMAD, available at: https://www.umar.gov.si/[…]/Development_report_2020.pdf) also reports about development risks in this area, that social protection systems are insufficiently adapted to demographic change. Slovenia has so far managed to keep age-related expenditure below the EU average, but long-term expenditure projections show a strong negative impact on the long-term sustainability of public finances if current policies remain unchanged and people continue to retire relatively early. The dedicated resources (social contributions) are already insufficient to cover all expenditure necessary to retain adequate pensions and easily accessible public health services. Unresolved funding issues are also among the main obstacles to establishing a new systemic regulation of long-term care.
Demographic growth in Slovenia does thus not threaten biodiversity, unlike in some other parts of the world. Nevertheless, it can be expected that the pressures on the natural environment will continue to increase and the conservation status of plant and animal species will decline in relation to the decrease in ecosystem diversity. Negative impacts of the spread of invasive non-native species and climate change are becoming more pronounced. All the key reasons are linked to human activities and their effect on the environment, which results in the loss, fragmentation and degradation of ecosystems and habitats in terms of both species and populations.
Demographic situation poses significant element in the overall vulnerability to climate change as it's increasing the size of vulnerable groups while decreasing the public finances available to cope with the raising costs of climate related disaster events.
There have not been any relevant developments since 2021.
Before the outbreak of the economic crisis in 2008, Slovenia had achieved high economic growth in the preceding decade, with many structural deficiencies indicating that the development model before the crisis was unsustainable. During the crisis, there was a sharp decline in GDP, which severely undermined economic stability and had a negative impact on the well-being of the population. In 2014, Slovenia started catching up with economically more developed countries after five years, and the stability of the banking system and public finances has also recently been observed again in the crisis.
In 2016–2018, Slovenia was narrowing its development gap with the EU average, the development in the period of economic growth was generally inclusive and the efficiency of energy and resource consumption increased slightly. Since 2016, the gap with the average gross GDP per capita in the EU, which widened in 2009–2012, has been rapidly narrowing amid strong economic growth. With the adoption of comprehensive measures to stabilise public finances and the recovery of economic activity, the public finance situation also improved significantly after 2013. With the recovery of all statistical regions, regional disparities have remained stable. Disparities between the cohesion regions have increased somewhat, but remain below the highest level from 2007. The economic upturn was reflected in an increase in employment and income and accelerated robotisation and automation of production. In 2020, with the consequences of Covid-19 outbreak, Statistical Office reports that GDP decreased by 5.5%.
GHG emissions have declined in the context of lower economic activity in the crisis, but per unit of GDP, their level remains higher than the EU average. Increasing transit road traffic and overall unsustainable mobility are particularly problematic. Lower consumption in households and industry reduces energy consumption but remains relatively high per unit of GDP due to the high proportion of energy-intensive activities. By 2030, taking into account the dimension of the Energy Union, Slovenia will actively seek to gradually decarbonise the energy-intensive industry and provide financial incentives for restructuring production processes.
The Slovenian economy is above average based on the use of raw materials, which is reflected in its lower material efficiency and its competitiveness. In some areas, such as the share of renewable energy sources (RES) and organic farming, Slovenia is more successful than the EU average. Slovenia also has favourable natural resources, coastal and marine resources and diverse biodiversity, but due to the inadequate use of natural resources (especially in the areas of urbanisation, agriculture and water management), the conservation status of species and their habitats is mostly unfavourable.
Adapting to climate change while moving to a climate-neutral and circular economy would enable Slovenia to preserve natural resources, long term competitiveness and quality of life, but that requires changing production and consumption models at the European level and beyond.
There have not been any relevant developments since 2021.
To monitor the weather, climate and water properties, the Agency employs a network of classical and automatic measurements of meteorological and hydrological variables. A substantial archive of historical measurements is especially valuable in monitoring the state of the climate, as only on the basis of long homogeneous datasets of climate variables can the changes of climate be identified.
Hydrological data has been collected in an organized manner on the territory of Slovenia for more than a hundred years, and the national database already contains around 35 million units of hydrological data. As with the assessment of climate change itself, long datasets of historical hydrological data are valuable for assessing the climate change impacts on the water cycle. Within the Operational Programme of Environmental and Transport Infrastructure Development (OP ETID) for the period 2007–2013, the Agency carried out the project Upgrading the system for monitoring and analysing the state of the water environment in Slovenia (called BOBER). The aim of the project was to increase the country’s capacity for comprehensive monitoring of the water cycle. As part of the project, both the hydrological and meteorological measurement network were significantly upgraded and renewed.
In the quality control process, meteorological and hydrological data are systematically checked. Data quality control is then upgraded by a time series homogenization process, by means of which artificial influences on measurements are excluded from time series (e.g. change of instruments, change of the surroundings of measuring point).
Homogenized time series are the basis for studies of past climate change. In 2013, the project “Climate Variability of Slovenia” was completed at the Agency, in the framework of which the time series of main climate variables were systematically homogenized and their trends were calculated. Upon completion, the time series are regularly updated with new measurements. In 2020, the homogenization process was repeated, mainly due to larger inhomogeneities in the measurement time series, which were the consequence of the above mentioned upgrade of the measuring network completed in 2015. In 2020, a new World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) reference period ended and by the end of 2021 climate normals for the new reference period (1991-2020) will be prepared.
Based on the verified measurements and homogenized time series, Slovenian Environment Agency regularly monitors the state of the climate on a monthly basis and evaluates deviations of climate variables from long-term reference values (http://meteo.arso.gov.si/met/sl/climate/current/). The state of hydrological conditions for both surface and groundwater is monitored on a regular basis (http://www.arso.gov.si/vode/podatki/amp/ and http://www.arso.gov.si/vode/podatki/ podzem_vode_amp /) and at the annual level in the form of annual reports (http://www.arso.gov.si/[…]/ and http://www.arso.gov.si/vode / underground% 20water /). In addition to regular monitoring in the event of extreme weather or hydrological events, special reports are prepared, which include a detailed analysis of the extreme event and an assessment of exceptionality in the context of climate variability and change - http://www.arso.gov.si/[…]/poro%c4%8dila%20in%20publikacije and http://meteo.arso.gov.si/met/sl/climate/natural-hazards/.
Homogenized time series of the main climate variables were the basis for the preparation of climate scenarios on a local scale. The first climate change projections were prepared at the Agency in 2014 on the basis of the IPCC SRES greenhouse gas emission scenarios (SRES A1B). In 2016, the Agency launched the project “Climate Change Assessment in Slovenia until the end of the 21st century”. Within this project, more detailed climate projections were prepared for Slovenia on a local scale, based on model simulations with new IPCC greenhouse gas emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways – RCP, from the IPCC 5th Assessment Report).
The new climate projections for Slovenia are based on the simulations of global and regional climate models from the EURO-CORDEX project and taking into account historical homogenized measurements for model bias adjustment and downscaling to 1 km resolution. The projections were prepared for three future periods (2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100), taking into account the three possible pathways of greenhouse gas concentrations (low-emission scenario RCP2.6, stabilisation scenario RCP4.5 and high-emission scenario RCP8.5). The projected changes were assessed for basic climate variables (air and soil temperatures, surface, groundwater and sea temperatures, precipitation, reference evapotranspiration, wind and solar radiation) as well as for derived, water-cycle related variables (soil water content, river discharges, groundwater recharge and phenological development of selected plant species). A detailed project report is published on the website http://meteo.arso.gov.si/met/sl/climate/change/, where short summaries of the project report can be found as well. A user friendly web application – “Climate change atlas” allows users to easily browse the climate projections in graphical form.
Based on the projections for climate variables, assessments of climate change impacts on individual sectors or aspects (heat waves, forest fires risk…) are currently being prepared. However, some sector-oriented assessments of the climate change impacts have already been prepared (water, agriculture, energy…). Climate change projections summaries and bias adjusted and downscaled simulations on a daily scale are openly available for users through data point (https://podatki.gov.si/data[…]%2C+projekcije%2C+Slovenija).
Using the measured values interpolated on the model spatial network, the Agency analysed the statistics of daily and monthly values of average air temperature and precipitation. The comparison between measured and model values was made by climate regions. The quality of monthly values was determined by the deviation of the median of the model values from the measured values for each month of the year in the comparison period 1981–2005. The Slovenian Environment Agency only selected models that matched the measurements relatively well (statistics of daily and monthly values of temperature and precipitation by climatic regions of Slovenia). Another aim was also to maximize the diversity between combinations of global and regional climate models in order to cover as much of the uncertainty that stems from the characteristics of both global and regional models as possible.
Out of 14 combinations of global and regional climate models, six were finally selected. To study the impact of global models on regional results, the Agency chose two combinations with the same global model and two combinations with the same regional model to study the impact of regional models.
To eliminate systematic errors of the climate model simulations, the Agency used a modified method of quantile mapping. Corrections of model simulations were made for the period 1981–2100, and the comparison period for estimating bias was the thirty-year period 1981–2010. To eliminate the bias, daily ground measurement data interpolated to the model grid was used.
Elimination of the model bias was done for each variable separately. The Agency first performed bias correction (BC) method for precipitation data using the quantile mapping method. More precisely, the non-parametric quantile mapping method using empirical quantiles was utilised. Bias correction was performed for each model cell independently of the others.
All other variables were corrected using the method of quantile delta mapping (hereinafter QDM). The dependence of the considered variable (e.g. daily average temperature) on precipitation was taken into account. The aim was to maintain the model trends for the variable under consideration and the relationship between precipitation and the variable that follows from meteorological measurements. For the considered variable, the deviations of this variable from the average annual course in the comparison period for the four precipitation classes were corrected using the quantile mapping method. Corrections were performed for each precipitation class and for each model cell independently of the others and for 30-year periods (2011–2040, 2041–2070 and 2071–2100). After corrections of deviations, the absolute values of the considered variable were obtained by adding the average annual course.
As the individual variables vary greatly in absolute terms throughout the year, the average seasonal course of the variable and the deviation from it was separated for each class before eliminating the bias. The average seasonal course was calculated by smoothing the data with the locally estimated scatterplot smoothing function (LOESS). The window of 61 days was taken for the smoothing window, paying attention to the smooth transition at the edges of the year (December, January).
All calculations were first performed for each model of the ensemble and by each model grid point separately. For the selected RCP scenario, the future change for each model and each model grid point was estimated. The change was analysed by comparing the results for one of the three projection periods with the comparison period or by estimating the trend over the entire period (1981–2100).
Regional model data at each model grid point were analysed in two ways:
1. Estimating the changes in the average values of climate variables or their indicators over three thirty-year periods compared to the comparison period.
2. Assessing the long-term trend of extreme values of climate variables or their indicators.
The statistical significance of the change in mean values was assessed by testing the null hypothesis that there was no change. The statistical significance of extreme value trends was assessed by estimating the confidence interval for the trend. Changes were assessed on an annual and on a seasonal basis.
The comparison period was the thirty-year period 1981-2010. Statistical significance was checked by Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney test. The characteristic level (a) for the test was set to 0.1.
The values of changes and statistical significance of the changes for individual model were combined – the Agency estimated the coherence of the model ensemble, which tells whether the models of the ensemble show similar changes. A change of the ensemble mean value was marked as reliable if more than half of the models showed a statistically significant change with the same sign. If approximately the same number of models showed a statistically significant change on either side, the change was marked as unreliable and reported as such in the report.
Long-term trends of the extreme values of climate variables have been assessed using the extreme value theory (Coles, 2001). A linear trend of extreme values was estimated for the entire period. The values of trends and their errors (trend confidence intervals) for an individual model were finally combined into an estimate for the whole model ensemble using the bootstrap method. The Agency got the mean value for the ensemble trend and its estimated error - a confidence interval that is greater than the confidence intervals of individual model trends. The statistical significance of the whole ensemble trend was assessed similarly to the assessment of changes in the thirty-year periods.
The whole process - from data quality control, homogenisation and model data downloading to data processing (bias adjustment, downscaling), data analysing and results visualisation is done by self-developed tools using R, Python and CDS.
In the period 1961–2020, the average air temperature increased by 2°C. With rising temperature other climate characteristics are changing as well. The signal for precipitation is not uniform. In the period 1961-2010 precipitation decreased by some 20 per cent in the western half of the country and by 10 per cent in the eastern half at the annual level. In the last 12 years (period 2011-2022) the decreasing precipitation trend has stagnated and even changed to increasing trend. Climate projections predict that it would turn into an increasing one across the whole country in the coming decades. Snow cover, as an important natural water retention element, has halved in the last six decades, what has already had a significant influence on the river flow regime, with lower late spring pick and higher late autumn pick. Although the extreme events are rare by definition and therefore it is difficult to detect their significant change it is evident that all climate indicators for extreme heat, extreme precipitation and drought show increasing trend for their intensity as well as for their frequency.
The assessment of further climate change in Slovenia until the end of the 21st century drafted by the Slovenian Environment Agency reveals that the climate will continue to change drastically in Slovenia.
Hazard type | Acute/Chronic | Observed climate hazards |
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Water | Acute | Drought |
Flood | ||
Heavy precipitation | ||
Snow and ice load | ||
Chronic | Changing precipitation patterns and types | |
Ocean acidification | ||
Precipitation hydrological variability | ||
Sea level rise | ||
Water scarcity | ||
Solid mass | Acute | Avalanche |
Landslide | ||
Subsidence | ||
Chronic | Coastal_erosion | |
Soil erosion | ||
Sol degradation | ||
Temperature | Acute | Cold wave frost |
Heat wave | ||
Wildfire | ||
Chronic | Changing temperature | |
Temperature variability | ||
Wind | Acute | Cyclone |
Storm | ||
Tornado | ||
Chronic | Changing wind patterns |
Hazard type | Acute/Chronic | Future climate hazards | Qualitative trend |
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Water | Acute | Drought | significantly increasing |
Flood | significantly increasing | ||
Heavy precipitation | significantly increasing | ||
Snow and ice load | significantly decreasing | ||
Chronic | Changing precipitation patterns and types | significantly increasing | |
Ocean acidification | evolution uncertain or unknown | ||
Precipitation hydrological variability | significantly increasing | ||
Sea level rise | significantly increasing | ||
Water scarcity | significantly increasing | ||
Solid mass | Acute | Avalanche Future | without significant change |
Landslide Future | significantly increasing | ||
Subsidence Future | evolution uncertain or unknown | ||
Chronic | Coastal erosion | evolution uncertain or unknown | |
Soil erosion | evolution uncertain or unknown | ||
Sol degradation | evolution uncertain or unknown | ||
Temperature | Acute | Cold wave frost | significantly decreasing |
Heat wave | significantly increasing | ||
Wildfire | significantly increasing | ||
Chronic | Changing temperature | significantly increasing | |
Temperature variability | evolution uncertain or unknown | ||
Wind | Acute | Cyclone | evolution uncertain or unknown |
Storm | significantly increasing | ||
Tornado | evolution uncertain or unknown | ||
Chronic | Changing wind patterns | evolution uncertain or unknown |
The National Disaster Risk Assessment, Version 1.0, compared the risks of 12 types of disasters (earthquake, flood, hazards of biological, chemical, environmental or unknown origin to human health, highly contagious animal diseases, nuclear or radiological accident, railway accident, aircraft accident, drought, large wildfire, terrorism, ice storm, accidents involving dangerous substances) which were identified in 2015 on the basis of risk assessments for individual disasters. In 2016, certain risk assessments for individual disasters were amended taking into consideration the impacts of future climate change (Risk Assessment for Floods, Risk Assessment for Drought, Risk Assessment for Large Wildfires, and to a lesser extent, Risk Assessment for the Outbreak of Highly Contagious Animal Diseases and Risk Assessment for the Hazards of Biological, Chemical, Environmental or Unknown Origin to Human Health). The Risk Assessment for Ice Storms was also amended, even though according to current knowledge in this area, future climate change will most likely have no significant negative or additional impact on the occurrence of ice storms. In 2018, three new risk assessments for individual disasters were prepared (Risk Assessment for Cyber Threats, Risk Assessment for Accidents at Sea, Risk Assessment for Diseases and Pests Affecting Forest Trees), whereas the Risk Assessment for Nuclear and Radiological Accidents was amended. The National Disaster Risk Assessment, Version 2.0, thus incorporated national disaster risk matrix representing a joint overview, i.e. an overview of all impacts and likelihoods of all the 15 assessed disasters, that shows that the highest risk in the Republic of Slovenia due to the combination of the impact levels and the likelihood of their occurrence, are floods, the only one at a very high risk level. In terms of their likelihood and frequency of occurrence, large wildfires and cyber risks represent a greater risk than floods. However, their impacts are much lower than those of the disasters with the highest impacts at least with regard to representative risk scenarios. Risk assessments for disasters are constantly being amended.
Non-native species are being recognised as a great threat to biodiversity in Slovenia since it is evident that they are spreading fast along rivers and traffic routes. Wetland ecosystems are the most threatened by invasive non-native species, as two thirds of the most problematic invasive species are spread exclusively by and along waters. In many areas invasive plant species have already spread to such an extent that they completely replaced the natural vegetation. Campaigns for rising awareness and the correct way of disposal of invasive species are on the rise. They are mostly organised by municipalities and non-governmental organisations and increasingly by the managers of protected areas and the Institute for Nature Conservation within its projects (e.g. Wetman, Climaparks, Ljuba, Suport).
Since 2019 a research project co-funded by the Climate Change Fund is carried out by the Faculty of Medicine of the University of Ljubljana with partners (Establishment of monitoring of vectors and vector-borne diseases in Slovenia, more information available at https://www.mf.uni-lj.si/[…]/V3-1903_ANG_LOGO.pdf).
The aim of the project is to establish standardized procedures for monitoring mosquitoes and sandflies and determine the exact species of the diseases vectors as well as the prevalence of medically important pathogens in vectors, such as Dengue virus, Zika
virus, Yellow fever virus, West Nile virus and Chikungunya virus. Data on the presence and distribution of the vectors and vector-borne pathogens together with environmental data, will be the basis for the risk assessment of emerging pathogen introduction of and the impact it will have on public health in Slovenia. The research will contribute both to the recognition of the current state, as well as to the control of the spread of emerging pathogens in Slovenia. The data will be the basis for continuous monitoring of vectors and emerging microorganisms in Slovenia. An early warning system for emerging pathogens in Slovenia will be established. The collected data will not only be useful for Slovenian public health professionals, but also for other European countries, as warmer temperatures have allowed many disease-carrying vectors to expand their distribution northwards and to higher altitudes in Europe
Research into impacts of climate change on forest fires, spread of tropical diseases, buildings using wood as a material, ski tourism, irrigation, new species in agriculture and forestry, as well as biodiversity, green, blue and other infrastructure, is currently planned to be carried out in the period 2021-23.
Key affected sectors
Key affected sector(s) | agriculture and food |
Rating of the observed impacts of key hazards, including changes in frequency and magnitude | medium |
Different rating of the observed impacts of key hazards | |
Assessment | Agriculture (crop and livestock production) and food production have been affected directly or indirectly by changes in climate conditions (impacts on quantity, quality and cost of production). Climate and hydrological variability and extreme weather events, especially droughts, floods/heavy precipitation, storm (including hail) hazards, low temperatures with frost and heat waves have significant negative effects on Slovenian agriculture. A significant advance in spring phenology has been observed in large part of the country but hazards in relation to frost appearance exist especially in fruit-growing areas and in viticulture. Warmer and drier conditions are responsible for reduced plant productivity and specific pest’s appearance. Especially after 1990, agricultural droughts occur more frequently and with greater intensity. The drought spatial distribution and typology are also changing. It appears in all seasons and it affects the whole country. In the last twenty years, we have recorded 8 droughts that caused damage of national proportions: 2000, 2001, 2003, 2006, 2007, 2012, 2013, and 2017. Droughts are accompanied by heat stress due to more frequent heatwaves. In the last five years, there was high economical damage recorded in fruit production due to spring frost in the years 2001, 2002, 2003, 2005, 2012, 2016, 2017, and 2019 with different spatial coverage. |
Rating of the key hazards' likelihood of occurrence and exposure to them under future climate | high |
Different rating of the likelihood of the occurrence of key hazards and exposure to them under future climate | |
Rating of the vulnerability, including adaptive capacity | medium |
Different rating of the vulnerability and/or adaptive capacity | |
Assessment | Vulnerability for agriculture and forestry sector has been assessed before the adoption of the sectoral strategy (Strategy for climate change adaptation of Slovenian agriculture and forestry, adopted in 2008). There were also a number of research programmes and projects carried out in the sector, that included climate change impacts and vulnerability assessment in their work, such as research on projections of water quantity for irrigation, research developing comprehensive system for managing production and income risks in Slovenian agriculture and fisheries sectors, and on improving soil fertility in changing climate, among other. |
Rating for the risk of potential future impacts | high |
Different rating of the risk of potential future impacts | |
Assessment | Drought risk assessment has been prepared in detail in the scope of civil protection mechanism. The overall risk has been - according to return periods of typical surface water balance deficits - estimated as moderate, i.e. medium. Climate change scenarios according to EURO-CORDEX project will somehow increase frequency of moderate deficits, however (also due to technological measures, such as development of irrigation systems) the risk will remain moderate. The only exception is devastating deficit (with current return period over 200 years) under RCP8.5 scenario, becoming more likely (with return period below 100 years). Therefore, under RCP8.5 scenario, risk of catastrophic drought (with impacts exceeding 1% GDP) will - due to decreased return period - become higher. Increase of frost risk has not been confirmed by climate change projections study; as reported by many other studies, early onset of vegetation was cancelled by a positive temperature trend. However, the frequency of spring frost has increased in the past decade so influence of climate trends will have to be re-evaluated. Increase of frost risk has not been confirmed by climate change projections study; as reported by many other studies, early onset of vegetation was cancelled by a positive temperature trend. However, the frequency of spring frost has increased in the past decade so influence of climate trends will have to be re-evaluated. |
Key affected sector(s) | biodiversity (including ecosystembased approaches) |
Rating of the observed impacts of key hazards, including changes in frequency and magnitude | medium |
Different rating of the observed impacts of key hazards | |
Assessment | Observed changes of organisms, species, communities and ecosystems are not linearly related to the severity of climate change impacts and are closely related to many other environmental pressures to ecosystem. Knowledge on species and habitats sensitivity towards climate change impacts is scarce.Available studies are limited to a few pilot studies at best on ecosystems.There is uncertainty due to the limited knowledge about system behaviour,likely impacts and possible tipping points are difficult to make.Most plant species are sensitive to increasing temperatures and summer droughts.For many other species, including fauna, the impact ofchanges in precipitation and humidity in warmer climates is not well known. Thecollected data show that populations are declining, particularly those of the species dependent on the traditional agricultural landscape.The status of forest habitat types is still mostly favourable, although the pressures on the forest environment, especially in the lowland, are also increasing. In the mountain ecosystems, treelines and vegetation zones in the Alps are moving up.In the inland waters ecosystems due to higher temperatures, certain fish species have moved upstream to higher altitudes.In some areas invasive alien species have completely replaced the native ones and thus changed the structure of ecosystems, particularly wetlands. In coastal and marine ecosystems, climate change, and in particular water temperature rise, have resulted in tropicalisation. |
Rating of the key hazards' likelihood of occurrence and exposure to them under future climate | medium |
Different rating of the likelihood of the occurrence of key hazards and exposure to them under future climate | |
Rating of the vulnerability, including adaptive capacity | medium |
Different rating of the vulnerability and/or adaptive capacity | |
Assessment | Natura 2000 sites cover about 37% of the country’s territory, while more than half are areas of special interest. There is a threat of widespread penetration of invasive alien species that are better adapted to a hotter climate and pressures from agriculture, urbanisation and other impacts that further contribute to the increase of stress factors (e.g. excessive reproduction of harmful insects, diseases). Drought is negatively affecting plants` metabolic processes, incl. photosynthesis. Droughts cause damage to the root system and increase susceptibility to forest fires. The lowland forests are already in danger of drying out. Mild winters and early warm springs enable faster development and reproduction of certain harmful animal species that can affect forest vitality. Despite the increasing recognition of the role of wetland habitats, growing urbanisation and intensive agriculture continue to put pressure on wetlands. If the trend persists, wetlands will continue to disappear.SI may lose a great portion of its mountain plants too, particularly in areas above the treeline, where alpine biodiversity is greater. Climate change will accelerate the loss of coastal and marine ecosystems, which will affect individual species and have a significant impact on ecosystem services. Some activities of land use and spatial planning are also causing increased vulnerability to climate change. |
Rating for the risk of potential future impacts | high |
Different rating of the risk of potential future impacts | |
Assessment | To illustrate one type of occurrences, climate projections show that the number of hot days when the maximum temperature exceeds 30 ° C will gradually increase. In the near future, there will be 5 to 10 more hot days in the lowland part of the country (central, north-eastern and south-western regions) than in the comparative period. A slightly higher estimate (up to 30 days more) applies to most of the country in the period 2041-2070 and, according to the RCP4.5 scenario, also in the period 2071-2100. At the end of the century, according to the RCP8.5 scenario, up to 60 hot days more are projected in the lowlands than in the comparative period. This means increasingly higher risk for wildfires, droughts and unsuitability of climate for some of the plants and species now present in Slovenia. Other occurrences may refer to changes in the rainfall regime, where precipitations are expected to be more infrequent and abundant during shorter periods. Which affects the soil humidity levels. Soils thus have trouble absorbing the increased amount of water flow. |
Key affected sector(s) | civil protection and emergency management |
Rating of the observed impacts of key hazards, including changes in frequency and magnitude | medium |
Different rating of the observed impacts of key hazards | |
Assessment | In some regions, there are observed hazards such as water scarcity in summer months, sea level rise and soil erosion due to winds. There are also observed hazards such as heat waves, wildfires, storms, drought, floods and landslides. Not all hazards have been assessed in line with Decision no. 1313/2013/EU on a Union Civil Protection Mechanism. The National Disaster Risk Assessment, Version 2.0 (2018), incorporated national disaster risk matrix representing a joint overview, i.e. an overview of all impacts and likelihoods of all the 15 assessed disasters. As the highest risk in the Republic of Slovenia due to the combination of the impact levels and the likelihood of their occurrence, were assessed floods, the only one at a very high risk level. |
Rating of the key hazards' likelihood of occurrence and exposure to them under future climate | high |
Different rating of the likelihood of the occurrence of key hazards and exposure to them under future climate | |
Rating of the vulnerability, including adaptive capacity | medium |
Different rating of the vulnerability and/or adaptive capacity | |
Assessment | There has been no vulnerability assessment in this sector, but in line with Decision no. 1313/2013/EU on a Union Civil Protection Mechanism, a National Disaster Risk Management Capability Assessment was made. Among all the disasters, the best rating in terms of managing disaster risks was given to nuclear or radiological accidents (value 3.37 of the highest possible level 4) followed by the epidemics or pandemics of communicative diseases in humans (3.35), drought (3.33) and ice storms and highly contagious animal diseases (3.32). Cyber threats were given the rating of 3.25. With regard to the epidemics and pandemics of communicable diseases in humans, it should be pointed out that the management capability assessment for that risk was developed before the outbreak of COVID-19. The second group comprises the disasters for which the calculated values were between 3.22 and 3.14 (railway accidents, large wildfires, aircraft accidents, terrorism, and accident at sea), followed by forest tree diseases and pests (3.07). The third group of disasters with the lowest ratings are accidents involving dangerous substances (3.00 or 2.89), floods (2.92) and earthquakes (2.91). Two disasters which, based on the assessment of disaster risks, represent the highest risk in Slovenia (floods, earthquakes), were given the lowest rating along all the considered disasters with regard to the risk management capability assessment. It followed as a conclusion that attention should be thus paid above all to disasters such as floods, earthquakes, epidemics and pandemics of communicative diseases in humans, large wildfires and nuclear accidents, and partially also to disasters such as aircraft accidents, ice storms and terrorism (prioritisation according to the disasters). |
Rating for the risk of potential future impacts | high |
Different rating of the risk of potential future impacts | |
Assessment | Only a handful of risk assessments for individual disasters were amended taking into consideration the impacts of future climate change (Risk Assessment for Floods, Risk Assessment for Drought, Risk Assessment for Large Wildfires, and to a lesser extent, Risk Assessment for the Outbreak of Highly Contagious Animal Diseases and Risk Assessment for the Hazards of Biological, Chemical, Environmental or Unknown Origin to Human Health (epidemics or pandemics of communicative diseases in humans)), so the ratings cannot apply to all. |
Key affected sector(s) | forestry |
Rating of the observed impacts of key hazards, including changes in frequency and magnitude | high |
Different rating of the observed impacts of key hazards | |
Assessment | Changing soil moisture, air temperature and precipitation patterns as well forest fires and storms are already impacting forests in Slovenia. In general, Slovenian forests are well adapted to site characteristics and local climate, affecting tree growth, tree species composition in regeneration and vitality. As an old remnant of past practice and current successful natural regeneration, increased occurrence of Norway spruce is still observed on less appropriate sites for this species. Where increasing air temperature and changing precipitation patterns are causing drought stress, bark beetle attacks are common. Another problem is reduced resistance of Norway spruce to wind throw, mostly due to its shallow root system. In forests with site adapted tree species, where tree species composition was defined by natural regeneration, assessment can be done on the basis of forestry inventory, recording signs of illness, damages and defoliations, as well as based on the sanitary cut data. For this, forest service notes reason for sanitary cut for each individual tree, as for example: wildfire, storm, landslide, insects attacks and fungi. Slovenian forests annually produce 5.5 million tons of oxygen and absorb 7.5 million tons of carbon dioxide, part of which becomes locked in wooden products. As reported in the 2020 National Inventory Report (NIR, available at https://unfccc.int/documents/226320) the total net emissions of CO2 from LULUCF sector were -4,748 Gg CO2 eq in the base year (1986) and 243 Gg CO2 eq in 2018. The maximum value of net removals was in 2007. Slovenian forests have been significantly affected by natural disturbances since 2014. The total harvest in damaged forests has increased for around 50% in recent years, mostly due to increase in sanitary cut, which for a limited period resulted in a substantial decline of net removals not only in forests, but also in the sector. After 2019, Slovenian forests and forestry again represent carbon sink. |
Rating of the key hazards' likelihood of occurrence and exposure to them under future climate | high |
Different rating of the likelihood of the occurrence of key hazards and exposure to them under future climate | |
Rating of the vulnerability, including adaptive capacity | medium |
Different rating of the vulnerability and/or adaptive capacity | |
Assessment | There has been no vulnerability assessment in this sector, but in line with Decision no. 1313/2013/EU on a Union Civil Protection Mechanism, a Risk Management Capability Assessment was made for large forest fires risk which showed that the risk management capabilities are developed at key areas, that the risk is generally being managed (level 3,21 of 4). |
Rating for the risk of potential future impacts | high |
Different rating of the risk of potential future impacts | |
Assessment | Only large wildfires have been assessed in terms of the risk in potential future climate so the rating cannot apply to all risks. |
Overview of institutional arrangements and governance at the national level
The Resolution on the National Environment Protection Programme with programmes of measures until 2030 (ReNPVO20-30, Official Gazette of RS, no. 31/20, available at http://www.pisrs.si/Pis.web/pregledPredpisa?id=ODLO1985), adopted by the Parliament in March 2020, forsees the latest set of measures in the area of planning and steering of activities for achieving goals concerning climate change adaptation.
The Report shows a different level of success in the implementation of individual steps. The most successful were the integration of climate change adaptation into strategic planning, involvement in European and international activities, the provision of climate services and actions with regard to the preparation of an analysis of the situation in the field of education. The implementation of some steps was assessed as only partially successful, e.g. enhanced use of EIA / CPVO instruments, inter-ministerial cooperation, connecting databases and communication activities. Actions that were assessed as mostly unsuccessful were in the field of cooperation with the local and regional level (national contact point was not established) and the private sector and activities to establish regular cooperation between researchers and decision-makers, as the climate portal was not established. A key achievement was a significant increase in funding for adaptation purposes, and the biggest failure was the lack of progress in preparing the indicator for vulnerability assessment. With the adoption of the ReNPVO20-30, these activities have been postponed to the following years.
In particular, it is necessary to continue and upgrade knowledge on the impacts of climate change on individual sectors (as planned in the ReNPVO20-30 through the preparation of vulnerability assessments), and to plan priority measures on this basis. More efforts are needed to provide systematic research, planning and implementation and monitoring of measures, while also strengthening organization for implementation. An online consultation to develop the long term climate strategy has also shown that knowledge of adaptation (and also measures) to climate change among the general public is much weaker than in the area of climate change mitigation.
The SFCCA, NAS, included a vision and general objectives as well as horizontal guidelines for all sectors. The vision states that by 2050 Slovenia should become a society adapted and resilient to climate change impacts and characterised by a high quality of life and a high degree of safety of life, while taking full advantage of the changed climate on the basis of sustainable development. To strengthen capacities for climate change adaptation, management of risks and for taking advantage of the opportunities presented thereby several objectives and guidelines were put forward. General objective was to reduce Slovenia’s exposure, sensitivity and vulnerability to climate change impacts and increase the climate resilience and adaptive capacity of society. Horizontal guidelines were 4: on mainstreaming, broader cooperation, Research and knowledge transfer and Education and training, awareness raising and communication.
The importance of an adequate and timely provision of funding for climate change adaptation activities and measures both in Slovenia and in developing countries was also stressed. For a comprehensive implementation of guidelines (the steps and methods for their implementation are set in the strategy), it was foreseen that the monitoring should take place on a regular basis by an inter-ministerial climate change adaptation working group, which will also report on their implementation. However, to date, only one draft Report on the implementation of the SFCCA in the 2016–2020 was prepared, but never put for adoption to the working group due to changes of government political priorities. The draft report served as an input to the long term climate strategy, adopted by the parliament in 2021 (Resolution on Slovenia’s Long-Term Climate Strategy Until 2050, available at https://unfccc.int/documents/302702). This strategy expanded on the SFCCC and gives special focus also to biodiversity protection and foresees implementation of measures for conserving biodiversity to mitigate and adapt to climate change.
For the success of monitoring and evaluation, indicators were foreseen to be developed to assess the degree of Slovenia’s vulnerability at the national and municipal levels. This assessment has been carried out throughout 2022 and finished in February 2023. The vulnerability indicator illustrated the level of exposure (for selected meteorological variables, natural hazards and non-meteorological variables), adaptive capacity (municipalities are divided into 5 groups of municipalities: rural, industrial, suburban, urban and major cities), sensitivity (selected set of variables for each municipality, for example on land use structure, age structure, work activity, health status of the population) for all 212 municipalities in Slovenia. From the prepared data, target areas and municipalities for adaptation action by the government can be determined.
Due to insufficient implementation of the NAS, Slovenia prepared a strategic integrated LIFE project proposal, that was successful at the first stage. The project entitled “SLOVE LIFE4ADAPT” is now prepared for submission in the second stage. The proposed project, aims at contributing to the full implementation of the NAS, SFCCA, adopted by the Government in 2016. The project proposes a comprehensive set of activities to target main bottlenecks in the field of climate change adaptation, adjustment of major risks that will be identified in the project across sectors and includes key stakeholders in the process, as foreseen by the SFCCA. So far, implementation of the NAS was facing major barriers in the form of institutional capacity, know-how and wider recognition of risks leading to suboptimal implementation will, capabilities and capacities across all sectors, levels of government and wider public. This has changed with climate impacts felt across Slovenia in 2022 due to events of extreme drought, heat weaves and widespread forest fires. The project thus proposes to implement activities ranging from upgrading climate services at Slovenian Environment Agency, through establishment of a new two-tier interdepartmental Working group on Adaptation, Climate Portal and Local contact point for municipalities and regions, to developing a national action plan of measures for climate change adaptation, underpinned by work packages on implementation of pilot measures, trainings, communication, devising M&E system, innovative financing mechanisms and post-project implementation plan.
Slovenia's Development Strategy 2030 (SRS2030), the country's umbrella development document adopted in 2017, explicitly addresses climate change goals. The Strategy for sustainable growth of Slovenian tourism for 2017-2021, also adopted in 2017, included a measure of having a climate change vulnerability assessment for the tourism sector, besides measures on further developing the green scheme and making tourism infrastructure more resilient through providing funds for energy retrofitting and other. In the water management sector, the Water Management Plan for the Danube and Adriatic See Basins for the 2016–2021 period was adopted, which also defines measures that contribute to climate change adaptation. Climate change impacts have been included in the second cycle of the EU Floods Directive (2007/60/EC) assessment of flood hazard in flood risk assessment and management process. Climate services have been provided by the Slovenian Environment Agency to experts so that floods hazard maps have been prepared using climate projections of impacts on precipitation. Since 2006, Slovenia has been the host of the Drought Management Centre for Southeastern Europe – DMCSEE (under the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification – UNCCD and the World Meteorological Organisation – WMO). The groundwork for the National Action Plan for Drought Management in Slovenia was prepared in the framework of DMCEEE, which examined current drought management in Slovenia and put forward specific proposals for its improvement. For biodiversity conservation, The Natura 2000 Management programme for Slovenia for the period 2014-2020 has been adopted, especially for the management of NATURA 2000 sites. It determines conservation goals for habitats and species with the aim to maintain or improve their conservation status and thus also to improve their resilience to climate change. On 29 January 2020, the National Assembly of the Republic of Slovenia adopted the Resolution on the National Program on Strategic Directions for the Development of Slovenian Agriculture and Food "Naša hrana, naravni viri in podeželje po letu 2021". The document defined the basic strategic framework for the operation of agriculture, food and rural areas and is the basis for new strategic planning for the period after 2021. Ministry for agriculture, food and forestry has identified the following specific objectives: reduction of negative impacts on water, soil and air, climate change mitigation and adaptation, biodiversity protection, preservation of the cultural landscape and ensuring higher standards of animal welfare.
Mitigation and adaptation of agriculture to climate change is one of the central challenges it has addressed with solutions such as adaptation of species and varieties of agricultural plants, consideration of modern crop rotation guidelines and implementation of modern technological solutions. This will consequently change the current practices of many farms and also affect market conditions.
The energy renovation of buildings, both public and private, had a number of multiple effects in Slovenia, such as: cost reduction, better quality of life and job creation with the revival of the construction sector and the timber industry. The Government of the Republic of Slovenia adopted an Action Plan to increase the competitiveness of the forest-wood chain until 2020, which aimed at creating a market for timber products and services, improving the sustainable management of forests, increasing the amount and processing of timber with new technologies, creating new jobs and increasing the added value per employee in the wood processing industry.
Administration for Civil Protection and Disaster Relief under Ministry of Defense, is the national coordination body for risk assessment processes (providing links with adaptation related policies through Inter-ministerial working group on Disaster Risk and Management Capabilities Assessments) and also responsible for national emergency response plans in co-operation with other ministries. Climate change impacts have been included into relevant disaster risk assessments.
Other related legislation has also been amended, for example the new Spatial Planning Law integrates climate change adaptation in spatial/urban/land use planning processes at all levels. Adaptation is not mainstreamed in insurance policies, however there are incentives for investments in risk prevention in agriculture.
All infrastructure projects and government plans have to assess climate change impacts through SEA/IEA procedures. A dedicated process to facilitate stakeholders' involvement forms an integral part in the preparation of environment reports in SEA/IEA processes. Cooperation with external experts takes place, plans on how to involve stakeholders are developed and a number of public events and regular consultations with experts are held. A continuous process for improvement, especially of the coordination between policy-makers and science, is undertaken.
Stakeholders are being engaged as a part of general policy making. There is an obligation to consult with representative organizations of municipalities in all policy making. There are many practices of municipalities engaging with stakeholders particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts, as municipalities in Slovenia have wide ranging responsibilities from civil protection in natural disasters to elderly care. On the local level, adjustments of contingency plans for emergency situations, including the ones caused by climate change (floods, forest fires, heat waves etc.) are being made. Many municipalities also promote local resilience by providing urban gardens, social housing, local spatial planning directed into development of more green and blue areas, elimination of invasive alien species in municipal grounds etc. A good practice example from the sub national level is also municipalities engaging with stakeholders in the process of participatory budgeting.
Selection of actions and (programmes of) measures
Assessment of the degree of Slovenia’s vulnerability at the national and municipal levels has been carried out throughout 2022 and finished in February 2023 to be further examined. Vulnerability indicators for all 212 municipalities in Slovenia could show the level of exposure (for selected meteorological variables, natural hazards and non-meteorological variables), adaptive capacity (municipalities are divided into 5 groups of municipalities: rural, industrial, suburban, urban and major cities), sensitivity (selected set of variables for each municipality, for example on land use structure, age structure, work activity, health status of the population). From the data prepared in this way, target areas and municipalities for adaptation action by the government can be determined.
A system for the periodic review of adaptation action at sectoral and local levels and the allocation of reporting responsibilities is planned to be developed within the framework of the National Action Plan on Adaptation (NAP), in the framework of the proposed project “SLOVE LIFE4ADAPT”. The latter also foresees development of a monitoring and evaluation system to be established alongside NAP.
There are indicators developed within the wider framework of Environment indicators of the Slovenian Environment Agency, specifically on climate change adaptation, available at http://kazalci.arso.gov.si/[…]/climate-change-adaptation.
However, funding for cross-cutting climate adaptation actions is available within Climate Change Fund, and allocations to specific climate adaptation research or implementation measures are increasing. There are a number of other funds, from European Cohesion Funds for floods defence measures and disaster risk management measures to EEA and Norway grants mechanism that are contributing to adaptation goals.
Qualitative assessment of progress towards meeting adaptation priorities as set in the NAS have been made through assessment of actions preformed under each guideline and corresponding steps in the draft report on implementation of the NAS, the Strategic Framework for Climate Change Adaptation, in the period from 2016 to 2020.
Good practices and lessons learnt
Cooperation and experience
No further developments since 2021 were recorded.
No further developments since 2021 were recorded.
No further developments since 2021 were recorded.
Overview of institutional arrangements and governance at the sub-national level (where “sub-national” refers to local and regional)
There is one local level strategy for climate change adaptation in agriculture, Climate Change Adaptation Strategy for Agriculture in the Vipava Valley for the period 2017-2021 (https://life-vivaccadapt.si/[…]/Deliverable_C1_FINAL_Strategy-1.pdf) that was developed within LIFE project ViVaCCAdapt. Strategy was based on the Regional analysis to support adaptation of agriculture to climate change in the Vipava Valley, also developed within the project. The strategy has reviewed existing documents on adaptation and selected those measures from Common Agricultural Policy, Rural development programme and other policies in water management (River Basin Management Plans for the Danube and Adriatic Sea River Basins) that were deemed priorities on the basis of the analysis and in the process of wider consultations.
In the field of reducing energy poverty, Slovenian Eco Fund implements measures aimed at socially weak citizens. Since 2010, in the context of the energy renovation of multi-apartment buildings, recipients of cash social assistance or welfare allowance are entitled to a 100% subsidy for their share of the investment within the overall investment of the block. These are investments in thermal insulation of the facade, thermal insulation of the roof or ceiling against the unheated space, optimization of the heating system and replacement of old heating devices in shared boiler rooms. In addition to the above-mentioned, the Eco Fund has been implementing the ZERO project (Reducing Citizens' Energy Poverty) since 2014, which is intended for citizens who are recipients of regular or extraordinary cash assistance and/or welfare allowance. The ZERO project is carried out under the auspices of the Eco Fund by energy consultants within the public network ENSVET, who visit citizens at their homes.
In 2019, the Eco Fund started implementing the program "Subsidizing EE measures in 500 households with low incomes to solve energy poverty - Program ZERO500", which is implemented within the Operational Program of the European Cohesion Policy for the period 2014-2020. The funds are intended for investments in efficient energy use measures in one- or two-apartment buildings (e.g. for facade replacement, installation of energy-efficient windows, roof insulation, installation of ventilation, etc.) in households with low incomes.
- INTERREG Italy- Slovenia ECO-SMART (2020-2022) project to more effectively monitor the state of climate change and to plan appropriate adaptation measures to prevent the negative effects that threaten the quality of biodiversity in selected coastal NATURA 2000 sites of the included regions in Slovenia and Italy. It developed an adaptation plan for Slovenia protected area Skocjanski zatok.
- INTERREG Italy- Slovenia project POSEIDONE (2023-2026) is addressing the North Adriatic Sea functional area stretching from Chioggia to end of Slovene coastal area with the main objective of promoting local development on common needs and challenges through interventions in three different fields: protection of nature and biodiversity, development of green and blue infrastructure (in Natura 2000 sites and in the agricultural field) and the decrease of touristic pressure on natural parks.
- Interreg SLO-AT CROSSRISK was an Interreg bilateral project between Slovenia and Austria (2014-2020) to improve human safety and improve the protection of infrastructure in the programme area, consisting of eight Slovenian and nine Austrian regions. It also supported tourism to raise awareness of opportunities and risks through improved information about the safety of touring skiers or improved predictions of the potential for artificial snowfall.
- DriDanube (Danube Region) and ADO (Alpine Area) projects where different drought indicators, adapted in the case of the Danube region to a more flat and agro-oriented area, and in the case of the Alps a rugged area with typical hydrology, were developed. The major contributions of both projects are the addition of existing drought monitoring with additional data sources (satellite observations, model calculations) and a database on the effects of drought providing a resource for a more comprehensive assessment of the impact of climate change on frequency and intensity of droughts in the future.