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National circumstances relevant to adaptation actions

Geographic profile Lithuania is a Central European country on the eastern coast of the Baltic Sea. The size of the territory is 65 302 km². The length of Lithuanian coast is 90.6 km. Lithuania is the region of plains. The highest hill is 293.8 m above the sea level. The country’s territory consists of clayey plains (55.2% of the country territory), sandy plains (17.8%), hilly moraine uplands (21.2%), coastal plains (2.2%) and river valleys (3.6% of territory).

More than half of the Lithuanian land is suitable for agriculture, i.e. the land area used for agricultural production. Forested areas accounted for 33.5% of the total area Rivers in Lithuania occupies an area of 332 km2 , namely 0.5% area of the country. Lithuania has 22.2 thousand rivers and streams (waterways), with the total length of 76.8 thousand km. The longest river is Nemunas (its length in the country is 475 km). Lithuania has 2 585 lakes and 1 039 reservoirs (ponds) with the area exceeding 0.5 ha. The total area of lakes amounts to 886.9 km2 .

The Lithuanian climate is formed and affected by the global factors and local geographical circumstances. Key features of the climate depend on the geographical location of the territory. Lithuania is located in the northern part of the temperate climate zone. The second global factor is the prevailing westerly airflow. Lithuanian territory, as the whole European region, lies in the area of influence of the Atlantic Ocean and westerly air flow, with air temperature, precipitation and runoff patterns, sea level and other parameters.

The average annual temperature in Lithuania is 7.4°C (1991-2020 climatic normal). The hottest month in Lithuania is July; the coldest is January. At the end of the twentieth century the number of extremely hot days increased with the daily maximum air temperature equal to or above 30°C. . Meanwhile, frosty days when the daily minimum air temperature drops to -20°C and below have decreased significantly. The 1991-2020 climatic normal precipitated rainfall is 695 mm. More precipitation drops in west side of the country. Due to the climate change, precipitation patterns in Lithuanian territory are changing differently – in some places it is increasing, elsewhere decreasing (however, these changes are not very large). But there is the tendency that precipitation is increasing in Lithuania during the cold season. The share of liquid precipitation in the cold period is increasing.
The most populated areas are the counties of the biggest cities, Vilnius, Kaunas and Klaipeda. The population density of these three cities at the start of 2019 was 83.3 inhabitants per square kilometre (inhabitants/km2), 69.4 inhabitants/km2 and 60.8 inhabitants/km2, respectively. According to Statistics Lithuania, Lithuania’s population at the start of 2019 was 2 794 184 inhabitants. The population has been declining in recent years for various reasons, such as negative natural population change, mortality and emigration. After a slight rise in 2005-2009, the birth rate has been steady in recent years. The natural population change (increase/decrease) is still negative. Generally, changes in population are considered to be one of the factors that influence energy consumption and dynamics of GHG emissions accordingly. The population of Lithuania takes a declining trend. In 2005-2016, due to negative net international migration, the population declined by 365.1 thousand (72% of the total decline), due to the natural decrease – by 142.2 thousand (28% of the total decline).
Lithuania has experienced substantial political and economic changes since regaining its political independence in 1990. Vast economic reforms include price liberalisation and privatisation of small and medium enterprises during the period from 1991 to 2000. During the first decade of market reforms the institutional aspects of the transition was of the biggest national and international concern and culminated with a granting of a functional market economy status upon EU accession in 2004. On 1st January, 2015, Lithuania became the 19th country to adopt the euro.

The country’s economy and macro-economic were the main indicators which described the development of the country over the last decade. During the period from 2000 the most rapid economy development was witnessed in 2003 (GDP growth, compared with the previous year, amounted to 10.5%), after recovery from the Russian crisis (in 1999 GDP decreased by 1.1%). In the later years, GDP growth was slightly slower.

As a member of the EU since 2004, Lithuania has experienced significant growth coupled with the rapid modernisation of its economy, becoming a member of OECD in 2018. The country experienced the fastest recovery in Europe from the 2009 financial crisis, partly fuelled by a well-performing banking system and a diversified industrial sector.

Main sectors of industry: Agriculture contributes 3.2% to the GDP and employs 7% of the workforce (World Bank, 2020). Lithuania's main agricultural products are wheat, wood, barley, potatoes, sugar beets, wine and meat (beef, mutton and pork). Arable land and permanent crops cover 2 million hectares, more than one-third of the country’s territory.  The industrial sector accounts for 25.3% of GDP, employing around 26% of the active population. The main industrial sectors are electronics, chemical products, machine tools, metal processing, construction material, household appliances, food processing, light industry (including textile), clothing and furniture. The country is also developing oil refineries and shipyards. The World Bank estimates that the manufacturing sector alone contributes to 16% of the country’s GDP.  Lastly, the services sector contributes 61.4% to the GDP and employs more than two-thirds of the active population (67%). The information technology and communications sectors are the most important contributors to the GDP. In recent years, tourism has been one of the fastest-growing sectors of the country's economy (https://www.nordeatrade.com).

Reporting updated until: 2021-03-16

Item Status Links
National adaptation strategy (NAS)
  • actual NAS - adopted
  • being developed
National adaptation plan (NAP)
  • actual NAP - adopted
  • previous NAP - superseded
Sectoral adaptation plan (SAP)
Climate change impact and vulnerability assessment
  • completed
Meteorological observations
  • Established
Climate projections and services
Adaptation portals and platforms
  • Being developed
Monitoring, reporting and evaluation (MRE) indicators and methodologies
Key reports and publications
National communication to the UNFCCC
Governance regulation adaptation reporting
The Lithuanian Hydrometeorological Service under the Ministry of Environment (LHMS) is responsible for meteorological (including agrometeorological, aeronautical and marine) and hydrological observations and forecasts.

The website of LHMS contains information on climate change. In addition, it provides records on extreme events, related to temperature, rain fall, wind speed, and snow fall. Moreover, LHMS provides warnings on dangerous and catastrophic hydro-meteorological phenomena, sudden weather changes, ozone layer depletion, etc.

Meteorological data is collected only from meteorological stations. Sometimes there is information about damage from extreme meteorological phenomena near meteorological stations, but it is only a visual recording of damage. There is no systematic information about it.

Climate projections for the 21st century are based on outputs from numerical climate models in Lithuania. The study in 2015 on „Study identifying the vulnerability to climate change of the individual sectors, risk assessment and opportunities to adapt to climate change“ includes an analysis of Lithuanian climate change trends, projections, etc. based on the latest Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emission scenarios RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways), based on IPCC reports, various EU and Lithuanian strategic documents.

Four main RCP scenarios have been selected for climate projection: RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5. The future projection forecast values of climate indicators for the territory of Lithuania have been calculated according to all four scenarios, and the proposed climate adaptation measures are focused on the scenarios of medium (RCP6.0) and maximum energy impact (RCP8.5). The latter two scenarios are also called "pessimistic" because they model the highest rates of climate change.
Air temperature observations in Lithuania started in 1770 in Vilnius University. More than 240 years of observations gives a good insight into natural and anthropogenic causes of climate variability. Now LHMS provides hydrometeorological information necessary to ensure sustainable development of national economy and mitigate eventual negative impact of adverse hydrometeorological conditions on natural environment and human population, and to discharge national responsibilities for international exchange of information. LHMS manages meteorological services for civil air transport as well.

LHMS is responsible for meteorological, climatological, hydrometeorological and phenological observations and monitoring in Lithuania. For this purpose the National meteorological observation stations network is established. Meteorological observations in Lithuania in 2021 are carried out at 56 meteorological observation stations, which are stationary and located over the territory of country: 44 automatic meteorological stations, 9 semi-automatic stations with weather observers and 3 aeronautical meteorological stations. The density of national observation network is regulated by WMO standards.

All stations are equipped by automatic measure sensors, devices and software corresponding to WMO standards for data measurement and observation processing and transmission to the database. In these stations observational program is being developed in accordance with the observation station tasks and technical possibilities.

LHMS is also going to relaunch radiosondings from 2021 I quart. LHMS has 4 lightning detectors which are in the network with ECLID. Meteorological radar network consists from 2 weather radars (since 2013 and 2015).

Climate projections for the 21st century are based on outputs from global and regional climate models. The future projection forecast values of climate indicators for the territory of Lithuania have been calculated according RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 climate projections.
In 2015 a study identifying the vulnerability to climate change of the individual sectors, risk assessment and opportunities to adapt to climate change, the most efficient adaptation measures and evaluation indicators was accomplished. The study focuses on the following sectors: spatial planning, transport, energy, waste management, industry, agriculture, underground water resources, ecosystems and biodiversity, fisheries, forestry, tourism and others. There is a detailed analysis on the sensitivity, vulnerability and potential risk for the sector, the impacts, experience in other countries, adaptation to climate change, options and criteria for measuring the effectiveness of adaptation in the sector.

In 2014 risk assessment and vulnerability to climate change was evaluated in the sector of public health, cost-efficient measures and indicators were proposed. The study identifying the climate change threats to human health including the recommendations.
Observed climate hazards Acute Chronic
Temperature
  • Wildfire
  • Temperature variability
Wind
  • Tornado
  • Changing wind patterns
Water
  • Snow and ice load
  • Sea level rise
Solid mass
  • Subsidence
  • Soil erosion
Key future climate hazards Acute Chronic
Temperature
  • Wildfire
  • Temperature variability
Wind
  • Tornado
  • Changing wind patterns
Water
  • Snow and ice load
  • Sea level rise
Solid mass
  • Subsidence
  • Soil erosion
Among climate changed are increases in the frequency and intensity of weather and climate extremes that can have negative impact: to agriculture and forestry (threats to poor harvest due droughts, heavy rain, long-lasting rain), energy system disturbance, human health (due heat waves, cold waves), urban territory and infrastructure (due heavy rain or snow), ecosystems (loss of biodiversity), effects on land degradation through actions such as increased rainfall intensity, flooding, heat stress.
Spread of pest and diseases, can have detrimental effects (on agriculture, forestry). Spread of invasive species (negative impact to ecosystems), risk of forest fires.

Seasonal changes gave impacts for plants and agriculture, changing plan species have impacts for human health via allergies.

Also having reduction in water runoff during the summer season and hydrological droughts.

Key affected sectors

Impact/key hazard
high
No hazard and exposure assessment has been performed for changes in frequency and magnitude. In summary, the following changes can lead to both positive and negative changes in yields and agricultural production:
• Heat waves.
• Drought.
• Unstable snow cover.
• Extreme cold.
• Snow-free cold winter.
• Late spring and early autumn frosts.
• Heavy rains, hail, floods.
• Strong wind, thunderstorm.
• Extension of the warming period of plant vegetation.
Key hazard likelihood
high
A risk and impact assessment has not been performed. Potential exposure to hazards may include the following:
• Harvest losses and loss of income for farmers due to extreme weather conditions.
• Deterioration of housing conditions for animals and birds (overheating of the premises, risk of sun and heat shocks).
• Increased flammability.
• Species changes of pests and diseases, their spread.
• Soil degradation (acidification, water erosion).
• Higher vegetation period temperature and longer duration will favor the cultivation of late and warm-leaved plant varieties.
• Changes in the structure of exports and imports of products due to changing agro-climatic conditions in other countries.
Vulnerability
high
There is currently no assessment of vulnerabilities, including adaptability. The effects of hazards can be reduced or managed through the following adaptation measures:
• Adaptation capacity building, education and counseling of farmers and municipal specialists, provision of comprehensive agro-climatic information.
• Sustainable territorial development, preserving natural ecosystems, rational land use.
• Restoration of agricultural potential and implementation of preventive measures.
• Development of a system for the prevention, monitoring and control of plant and animal pests and diseases.
• Development of a system for warning of fires and natural hydrometeorological phenomena.
• Agri-environmental measures: installation of vegetation strips and protection zones around intensively cultivated arable land, storage of stubble during the winter.
• Development of research for strengthening the climatic potential of agrocenoses and for agrometeorological modeling and forecasting.
• Development of agrometeorological monitoring and implementation of agrometeorological forecasting services.
• Promoting the development and maintenance of innovative drainage and irrigation systems for agricultural land.
• Insurance benefits, mutual funds, income stabilization measures.
• Investing in the improvement of animal and bird housing conditions, waste utilization.
Risk Future Impact
not applicable
A risk assessment of the potential future impact has not been carried out at present and is planned for the future
Impact/key hazard
medium
No hazard and exposure assessment has been performed for changes in frequency and magnitude. In summary, changes in biodiversity may be due to the following changes:
• Rising summer and winter temperatures. Storms and hurricane winds.
• Rising Baltic Sea level.
• Warming of the sea and the Curonian Lagoon and changes in salinity and circulation.
• Winter thaws, spring cold waves.
• Heat waves.
• Increased drought.
• River sedimentation, water level fluctuations in rivers and lakes.
• Increased rainfall, floods and flash floods.
• Intensity of ultraviolet (UV) radiation.
Key hazard likelihood
medium
A risk and impact assessment has not been performed. Potential exposure to hazards can have the following consequences:
• Ecosystem degradation.
• Withdrawal or extinction of species from the territory of Lithuania.
• Spread of invasive species.
• Changes in the distribution of species, changes in the time and direction of migration, declining populations, deterioration of reproduction rates.
• Declining resilience of coastal ecosystems.
• Higher rate of ecological succession.
• Accelerated eutrophication in water bodies.
• More frequent inflow of salt water into the Curonian Lagoon and gradual change of its northern ecosystem.
• Forest fires, wind gusts.
• Changes in the biotic forest environment, the spread of new diseases and pests. • Decreased effectiveness of current conservation measures.
Vulnerability
medium
An assessment of vulnerabilities, including adaptability, has not yet been performed. The effects of hazards can be reduced or managed through the following adaptation measures:
• Strengthen the regulatory framework to protect ecosystems and biodiversity in the face of climate change.
• Support long-term wildlife research and monitoring.
• To create a scientific-information database, which would store research related to climate change.
• Management at the species level.
• Prevent the destruction of existing ecosystems and halt the spread of dangerous invasive species.
• Strengthening the capacity of different ecosystems to adapt to climate change at three levels (reserve, landscape, national / European).
Risk Future Impact
not applicable
A risk assessment of possible future effects has not been carried out at present and is planned for the future.
Impact/key hazard
mixed impacts for different hazards
No hazard and exposure assessment has been performed for changes in frequency and magnitude. In summary, the changes in buildings may be due to the following changes:
• Heat waves.
• Strengthening of heat islands in cities.
• Extreme air temperatures at different times of the year.
• Rising water levels in the Baltic Sea.
• Coastal erosion.
• High fire risk of droughts and their years.
• Heavy rainfall.
• Floods and flash floods.
• Storm.
Key hazard likelihood
different likelihood of their occurrence and exposure for different key hazards and/or climate scenarios
A risk and impact assessment has not been performed. Potential exposure to hazards can have the following consequences:
• Degradation of buildings and infrastructure structures.
• Effects on human health (poor microclimate, air pollution).
• Congestion of the urban rainwater system (flooding of streets, etc.).
• Pollution of groundwater and surface water bodies.
• Flooding of residential areas.
Vulnerability
mixed situation for different key hazards
An assessment of vulnerabilities, including adaptability, has not yet been performed. The effects of hazards can be reduced or managed through the following adaptation measures:
• Adapting the legal framework to climate change trends to address strategic planning challenges.
• Multifunctional land use.
• Restricting the development of areas vulnerable to climate factors.
• Regulation of construction technologies and requirements.
• Development and implementation of settlement models that reduce the formation of heat islands.
• Quarterly planning.
• Solving monofunctional building and communication problems.
• Complex development of business and social infrastructure.
• Reconstruction of the street network, improvement of traffic organization, development of public and ecological transport infrastructure.
• Renovation of buildings.
• Development of brownfields.
• Monitoring and mapping of natural hazards.
• Strategic and differentiated land use management.
• Development of green infrastructure in urban areas.
• Regulation of urban development.
• Zoning of floodplains and regulation of construction in them.
• Non-structural flood protection measures (afforestation, wetland restoration, implementation of agri-environmental measures).
• Economic diversification and development of insurance services.
• Involving the public in the planning process and raising awareness.
Risk Future Impact
not applicable
A risk assessment of possible future effects has not been carried out at present and is planned for the future.
Impact/key hazard
mixed impacts for different hazards
No hazard and exposure assessment has been performed for changes in frequency and magnitude. In summary, changes in business and industry may be due to the following changes:
• Higher average air temperature and heat waves.
• Temperature rise in the cold season.
• Extreme cold and sudden colds.
• Extension of the period with a positive temperature.
• Prolonged air temperature anomalies.
• Decrease in snow cover thickness and number of days with snow cover.
• Rainfall redistribution and inequality over the year.
• Drought, reduction of river runoff.
• Low water level in water bodies.
• Increase in precipitation intensity.
• Humidity changes.
• More frequent recurrence of storms and other dangerous meteorological phenomena.
• Floods and floods in rivers.
• Sea level rise.
• Climate change in other regions of the Earth.
Key hazard likelihood
different likelihood of their occurrence and exposure for different key hazards and/or climate scenarios
A risk and impact assessment has not been performed. Potential exposure to hazards can have the following consequences:
• Raw material extraction, price changes, transportation disruptions.
• Damage to industrial infrastructure and logistics.
• Risk of flooding.
• Disruptions in the production process and damage to stored or transported products.
• Limitation of groundwater and surface water consumption.
• Higher cold period temperatures will be favorable for the construction, road construction and mining sectors.
• Changes in demand and consumption of goods and services within the country.
• Changes in the structure of exports and imports of industrial products.
Vulnerability
mixed situation for different key hazards
An assessment of vulnerabilities, including adaptability, has not yet been performed. The effects of hazards can be reduced or managed through the following adaptation measures:
• Improvement of the legal regulatory environment, development of information and consultation infrastructure.
• Sensitivity, risk and possible adaptation studies.
• Establishment of a financing infrastructure for adaptation measures.
• Incorporating climate change issues into industry action plans.
• Climate change risk insurance services.
• Implementation of industrial symbiosis.
• Increasing the efficiency of raw materials and reducing imports.
• Long-term contracts with suppliers.
• Forecasts of the effects of global climate change on raw material prices and availability.
• Increasing the amount of raw material stocks.
• Adaptation of existing industrial infrastructure to changing climate conditions.
• Adapting construction standards to changing climate conditions.
• Investment protection measures against flooding.
• Increasing energy efficiency.
• Increasing water efficiency.
• Analysis of consumer demand for products.
Risk Future Impact
not applicable
A risk assessment of possible future effects has not been carried out at present and is planned for the future.
Impact/key hazard
medium
No hazard and exposure assessment has been performed for changes in frequency and magnitude. In summary, the changes in energy can be due to the following changes:
• Rise in air temperature during the cold and warm periods of the year.
• High temperature of water bodies in summer.
• Extreme cold and heat.
• Rainfall redistribution and inequality over the year.
• Droughts, declining river runoff and extreme water level fluctuations.
• Wind gusts and storms.
• Heavy rains, hail.
• Lightning.
• Freezing rain and other icing phenomena.
• Snow surface instability.
• Sea level rise.
• Increasing climate extremism.
Key hazard likelihood
different likelihood of their occurrence and exposure for different key hazards and/or climate scenarios
A risk and impact assessment has not been performed. Potential exposure to hazards can have the following consequences:
• Decreasing demand for thermal energy in winter (heating season), increasing electricity consumption and load on electricity networks in summer.
• Adverse effects on infrastructure due to more frequent freeze-thaw cycles.
• Increase in hydropower production in the cold period of the year and decrease in the warm period.
• Lack of water for cooling thermal power plants and reduced cooling efficiency.
• Higher number of accidents on power transmission lines.
• Underground infrastructure damage and heat loss on thermal routes during extreme frosts.
• Wind turbine malfunctions and equipment damage.
• Reduction of biomass used in energy.
• Disruptions in the transportation of energy resources by sea.
Vulnerability
medium
An assessment of vulnerabilities, including adaptability, has not yet been performed. The effects of hazards can be reduced or managed through the following adaptation measures:
• Assessment of climate forecasts in the preparation of new energy production, transmission infrastructure design projects or existing renovation projects.
• Thermal insulation of underground infrastructure.
• Replacement of overhead power lines with underground cables.
• In summer - increasing the volumes of electricity production and / or imports, capacity of electricity lines, promotion of economical energy consumption. • Ensuring energy reserves.
• Adjusting energy production and import flows to take account of inequalities in hydropower production.
• Ensuring alternative energy supply options.
• Providing emergency access to overhead power lines.
• Insurance and indemnification for energy companies (especially RES power plants).
Risk Future Impact
not applicable
A risk assessment of possible future effects has not been carried out at present and is planned for the future (transmission and distribution).
Impact/key hazard
medium
No hazard and exposure assessment has been performed for changes in frequency and magnitude. In summary, changes in forestry can be due to the following changes:
Key hazard likelihood
different likelihood of their occurrence and exposure for different key hazards and/or climate scenarios
A risk and impact assessment has not been performed. Potential exposure to hazards can have the following consequences:
• Forest drying, crown defoliation.
• Decrease in forest resistance to diseases and forest pests.
• High risk of fire.
• Damage to the root system of trees.
• Interference with logging operations.
• Flooding and deforestation of forest massifs in negative relief forms, floodplains and valleys.
• Wind gusts.
• Tree wrecks and dredges due to icing, sudden and heavy flooding, glaciers.
Vulnerability
mixed situation for different key hazards
An assessment of vulnerabilities, including adaptability, has not yet been performed. The effects of hazards can be reduced or managed through the following adaptation measures:
• Development of research.
• Thinning of stands and planting of drought-resistant tree species.
• Gradual transition from homogeneous and perennial forests to mixed forests of different ages
• Adapting water resources (RBD) management plans to forest needs.
• Gradual transition from homogeneous and one-century forests to mixed forests of different ages.
• Improvement and development of forest fire protection and monitoring.
• Application of selection methods in reforestation.
• Optimization of logging works.
• Special forest management projects adapted to river valleys and floodplains.
• Adaptation plans to frequently flooded forest areas (installation and maintenance of drainage systems).
• Improvement of road infrastructure in forest massifs.
• Forest management works by abandoning clear-cutting, forming stands and thinning stands at forest edges.
Risk Future Impact
not applicable
A risk assessment of possible future effects has not been carried out at present and is planned for the future.
Impact/key hazard
high
In summary, changes in health be due to the following changes:
• Changes in UV radiation.
• Heat waves.
• Cold waves.
• Floods.
• Drought.
• Air pollution.
• Prevalence of blood vessels and ticks.
• Prevalence of pollen and other allergens in the environment.
Key hazard likelihood
high
Potential exposure to hazards can have the following consequences:
• Skin cancer.
• Eye cataracts.
• Skin burns.
• Heat, heat stroke.
• Deaths due to direct exposure to hot weather (eg heat stroke, drowning, cardiovascular leagues, etc.).
• Skin frostbite.
• Deaths due to direct exposure to cold weather.
• Directly affected people (killed, injured, frozen) from extremes.
hydreteorological phenomena (rainstorms, blizzards, thunderstorms, extreme rainfall, fog, storms, sleet) and floods.
• Indirectly affected people (stress, mental disorders) from extreme hydreteorological phenomena (hot air, cold air, rainstorms, blizzards, thunderstorms, extreme rainfall, fog, storms, gusts) and floods.
• Exacerbation of respiratory diseases.
• Mental and behavioral disorders.
• Skin diseases.
• Increase in diseases of patients allergic to pollen.
• Blood - borne and tick - borne diseases.
Vulnerability
high
Adaptation of the public health sector to climate change is recommended:
• To improve the microclimate and air quality in cities to expand green zones.
• Adaptation of medical institutions (human and material resources, redistribution) to receive / service additional patient flows
• To ensure a sufficient (estimated) amount of necessary medicines and nursing products in pharmacies.
• A national register of people at risk or already affected by heat, cold and other natural disasters.
• National Registry of Allergic Diseases.
• Development of a preventive program (monitoring) for early diagnosis and monitoring of oncological skin diseases (risk groups).
• Expand and improve education, information and warning actions.
• Increase the number of influenza vaccinations for at-risk groups.
• Vaccination against tick-borne encephalitis in at-risk group.
Risk Future Impact
not applicable
A risk assessment of possible future effects has not been carried out at present and is planned for the future.
Impact/key hazard
medium
No hazard and exposure assessment has been performed for changes in frequency and magnitude. In summary, the changes in marine and fisheries may be due to the following changes:
• Rising temperatures in air and water bodies.
• Rising surface temperature and declining salinity in the Baltic Sea.
• Increase in annual rainfall.
• Snow surface instability, thickness and duration reduction.
• Increase in river runoff and floods in winter, increase in precipitation in summer and autumn.
• Increase in the recurrence of extreme hydrometeorological phenomena (droughts, floods).
• Risk of reduced runoff from small rivers.
• Rising water levels in the Baltic Sea and more frequent storms.
Key hazard likelihood
medium
A risk and impact assessment has not been performed. Potential exposure to hazards can have the following consequences:
• Changes in ichthyofauna and loss of fish biodiversity due to the loss of spawning grounds.
• Deterioration of fishing conditions and hydrobiological indicators.
• Catches, processing and sales will change.
• Changes in fish productivity and changes in species composition.
• Lack of water resources on fisheries farms.
• Deterioration of migration conditions of diadromous fish.
• Decreased amount of dissolved oxygen in the water
• Deterioration of water quality.
Vulnerability
mixed situation for different key hazards
An assessment of vulnerabilities, including adaptability, has not yet been performed. The effects of hazards can be reduced or managed through the following adaptation measures:
• Develop research.
• Reduce eutrophication of water bodies.
• Do not allow by-catches to be disposed of as waste overboard.
• Public education and consumer information.
• Develop long-term plans for the management and recovery of fish stocks and integrate fisheries and aquaculture issues into strategies for other sectors.
• Ensure migration of diadromous fish.
Risk Future Impact
not applicable
A risk assessment of possible future effects has not been carried out at present and is planned for the future.
Impact/key hazard
mixed impacts for different hazards
No hazard and exposure assessment has been performed for changes in frequency and magnitude. In summary, the changes in tourism may be due to the following changes:
• Climate seasonality.
• Shorter winter season, fewer days with snow.
• Longer and warmer summers.
• Extreme meteorological phenomena (heat waves, storms, splashes, etc.).
• Increase in air and water pollution.
• River runoff, floods and flash floods.
Key hazard likelihood
different likelihood of their occurrence and exposure for different key hazards and/or climate scenarios
A risk and impact assessment has not been performed. Potential exposure to hazards may include the following:
• Lossful winter resort activities.
• Unattractive or dangerous recreation in nature.
• Affected people and their inventory, destroyed tourist objects.
• The health of holidaymakers is impaired.
• Deteriorated air quality in the area.
• Increasing demand for water-related recreational activities.
• Deterioration of water bodies (non-compliance with applicable hygiene standards).
• Degradation of beaches.
• Spread of new diseases, viruses, invasive plant and animal species.
• Damage to cultural heritage objects, tourist routes.
• Increasing the costs of maintaining natural resources important for tourism.
Vulnerability
mixed situation for different key hazards
An assessment of vulnerabilities, including adaptability, has not yet been performed. The effects of hazards can be reduced or managed through the following adaptation measures:
• Development of year-round tourist facilities and services.
• Development of indoor tourist facilities in the regions.
• Installation of controlled microclimate premises.
• Development of an effective information and alert system.
• Accounting and restricting tourist flows.
• Monitoring and control of air and water pollution.
• Development of ecological, cognitive and therapeutic (health) tourism.
• Analysis of the needs of tourism service users.
• Improving the regulatory environment and developing an information infrastructure on climate change.
• Research on sensitivity, risk and possible adaptation measures.
Risk Future Impact
not applicable
A risk assessment of possible future effects has not been carried out at present and is planned for the future.
Impact/key hazard
mixed impacts for different hazards
No hazard and exposure assessment has been performed for changes in frequency and magnitude. In summary, changes in the transport sector, depending on the mode of transport, may be due to the following changes:

Roads and railways
• Heat waves.
• Extreme cold.
• More frequent temperature fluctuations around 0 °C.
• Heavy rainfall.
• Floods and flash floods.
• Storm.
• Strong wind.
• Icing.
• Blizzards.
• Thunderstorms.

Aviation
• Strong wind.
• Decreased visibility.
• Intensification of storms and convection processes.
• Heavy rainfall.
• Heat waves.
• Extreme cold.
• More frequent temperature fluctuations around 0 °C.

Water transport
• Water level fluctuations.
• Drought and river sediment.
• Floods and flash floods.
• Ice phenomena.
• Storm.
Key hazard likelihood
different likelihood of their occurrence and exposure for different key hazards and/or climate scenarios
A risk and impact assessment has not been performed. Potential exposure to hazards may include the following:

Roads and railways
• Deformation of asphalt (concrete) pavements and railway tracks due to heat and cold.
• Damage to road infrastructure.
• Traffic disorders.
• Decreased traffic safety.
• Increased accident rate.
• Increase in road maintenance costs.
• Power failure.
• Economic losses due to impaired passenger and freight mobility.
Vulnerability
mixed situation for different key hazards
An assessment of vulnerabilities, including adaptability, has not yet been performed. The effects of hazards can be reduced or managed through the following adaptation measures:

Roads and railways
• Development of information systems (IS) and research.
• Increasing the resistance of transport infrastructure elements and road surfaces to the effects of extreme weather.
• Improving operational meteorological service.
• Staff training.
• Vehicle speed, operating mode regulation.
• Development of transport infrastructure.
• Planning alternative routes.
• Application of protective greenery and equipment.

Aviation
• IS and research development.
• Increasing the resilience of airport infrastructure elements and aircraft to extreme weather events.
• Staff training.
• Strengthening international cooperation in the field of aviation meteorology.

Water transport
• Protective piers, berths at sea
• Reconstruction of ports.
• Dredging of waterways and port canals.
• Staff training.
• Regulation of traffic flows.
• Development of river and seaport infrastructure.
• Limitation of vehicle draft and load.
• Strengthening international cooperation in the field of marine meteorology.
Risk Future Impact
not applicable
A risk assessment of possible future effects has not been carried out at present and is planned for the future.

Overview of institutional arrangements and governance at the national level

In 2014 risk assessment and vulnerability to climate change was evaluated in the sector of public health, cost-efficient measures and indicators were proposed. The study identifying the threats to human health including the recommendations. In 2015 a study identifying the vulnerability to climate change of the individual sectors, risk assessment and opportunities to adapt, the most efficient adaptation measures and evaluation indicators was accomplished. The study focuses on the following sectors: spatial planning, transport, energy, waste management, industry, agriculture, underground water resources, ecosystems and biodiversity, fisheries, forestry, tourism and others. The reports are available via the websites of the Ministry of Environment. Per sector there is a detailed analysis on the sensitivity, vulnerability and potential risk for the sector due to climate change impacts, experience in other countries, adaptation options and criteria for measuring the effectiveness.
The Ministry of Environment of the Republic of Lithuania is the main coordinating institution responsible for development of climate change mitigation and adaptation policy and its implementation, transposing the EU climate policy legislation and advising for other institutions on integrating climate policy objectives and concerns into sectors which are not under the responsibilities of the Ministry of Environment.

Ministries, municipal and other institutions within their remit are responsible for the mainstreaming of climate goals and objectives into sectoral strategies and programmes and implementing related activities in Lithuania. The National Strategy for Climate Change Management Policy which lays down the targets and objectives for climate change mitigation and adaptation by 2050 is developed by the Ministry of Environment. The implementation of the Strategy is carried out by the Ministry of Environment, Ministry of Energy, Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Transport and Communications, Ministry of Health, Ministry of Education and Science, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Ministry of Economy, Ministry of the Interior, Ministry of Agriculture and municipal and other institutions within their remit. The implementation of the Strategy is coordinated by the Ministry of Environment. In addition, the goals and objectives of the Strategy are implemented by cross-sectorial policies, such as the National Progress Plan for 2021-2030, the National Sustainable Development Program and specific economic sectors development programmes or short-term planning documents. The Action Plans are prepared by the Ministry of Environment and endorsed by the Government of the Republic of Lithuania. State and municipal institutions engaged in the implementation of the Strategy provide the Ministry of Environment with information about the progress in implementing the Strategy and its Action Plan - NECP.
Adaptation to climate change is integrated in Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) procedures. Lithuanian EIA legislation consists of the Law on Environmental Impact Assessment of the Proposed Economic Activity, setting out the general principles and requirements for EIA and a number of Governmental Decisions and Orders of the Minister of Environment, containing further more detailed and comprehensive provisions. The main legislative document for adaptations is Regulations on Environmental Impact Assessment of the Proposed Economic Activity (https://www.e-tar.lt/[…]/asr).
The Fire and Rescue Department under the Ministry of Interior has coordinated the performance of the Lithuanian national risk assessment. This assessment comprises the evaluation of all threats in Lithuania, including also the threats caused by climate change. A national risk assessment was conducted in 2013. An updated in 2015 and 2018. Is currently being updated in 2021 and will have climate change scenarios and risks.

The Lithuanian National Risk Assessment updated in 2018 provides an assessment of risk factors with the greatest impact and likelihood. The following phenomena have been identified as posing a very high risk to Lithuania: natural, catastrophic and meteorological phenomena; epizootics; flooding; epidemics and/or pandemics.
National datasets relevant for climate change adaptation are distributed by different institutions according to areas of responsibility. Lithuania hydrometeorological service under the Ministry of Environment responsible for climate and weather data including weather warnings. Environmental protection agency for flood management plans. Fire and Rescue Department for loss and damage data. Different institutions collect and distribute data on their own platforms.

Overview of institutional arrangements and governance at the sub-national level (where “sub-national” refers to local and regional)

Horizontal and vertical coordination of the implementation of adaptation policy is ensured through the work of the National Climate Change Committee. The Committee consists of experts from government, municipal, science and non-governmental organizations and has an advisory role. Therefore, a representative of the Association of Lithuanian Municipalities, representing 60 Lithuanian municipalities and districts, was included in the interinstitutional working group for the preparation of the NECP, also in National Climate Change Committee and in other activities. In order to develop sectorial programs, related documents and select measures as well as indicators working groups are being created, for example, a Heat prevention working group.
Planning regions and municipalities implement different projects, including projects regarding adaptation to climate change. Flood risk has received the most attention at the sub-national level, so the EU-funded adaptation projects focus on coastal management and flood risks and are implemented across local and regional authorities.
The goal of Lithuania's climate change adaptation policy is to reduce the existing and predict future vulnerability of natural ecosystems and economic sectors and strengthen the capacity to adapt, to reduce risks and damage in a cost-effective way, to maintain and increase resilience to climate change, living and sustainable economic conditions. This goal will aim by 2030 to:
1. flood protection measures for all residents living in flood risk areas;
2. the share of climate-related economic losses in the country's GDP would not exceed 0.08% per year;
3. the share of planned dangerous, extreme and catastrophic meteorological phenomena from the actual phenomena would be at least 90%.
Lithuania prepared an update of the strategy and an analysis of the current situation and a SWOT had been provided to identify knowledge gaps.

Weaknesses:
1. Insufficient measures to increase resilience and adapt to climate change in various economy sectors and among the population, the need for such measures in the future is not assessed based of climate change impacts, assets are often not insured and extreme losses are inevitable;
2. the agricultural sector suffers most from climate change, while farm productivity is affected by extreme events. However, farms themselves use few adaptation measures, non-reoriented activities to grow more climate-resistant varieties, the insurance system is still underdeveloped, the share of insured area from the declared insurable area in 2018 accounted for only 9.2%;
3. highly dependent on climatic conditions is transport. In extreme weather conditions, traffic is constantly disrupted during the winter, and temperature fluctuations cause damage to the road surface. Failure to impose traffic restrictions will damage the road surface during the heat;
4. there are not enough observations and data on loss and damage. There are no methodologies for assessing damage, and there is a lack of research and analysis on the effects, sensitivity and vulnerability of climate change in individual sectors of the economy and the effectiveness of ongoing adaptation measures. At the institutional level, especially at the municipal and societal level, there is a lack of knowledge and understanding of the effects of climate change and the need to adapt to it;
5. lack of initiatives and competencies at the municipal level, lack of involvement in the planning and implementation of region-specific climate change adaptation plans and measures;
6. insufficient risk assessment and investment in risk prevention, with a focus on tackling the effects of climate change and redress.
Lithuania adopted a "Strategy for National Climate Management Policy 2013-2050" (hereinafter referred to as the Strategy) in November 2012 . This is an integrated strategy which covers both adaptation and mitigation issues and includes implementation considerations. The purpose of the Strategy is to develop and implement the Lithuanian climate change management policy and set short-term (by 2020), indicative medium-term (by 2030 and 2040) and long-term (by 2050) climate change mitigation and adaptation goals and objectives. The Strategy consists of sections accordingly dedicated to climate change mitigation and adaptation.

Now Lithuania updating Strategy and it will be "National Climate Change Management Agenda" with goals and objectives for till 2030 and long term directions untill 2050.

To implement the Strategy, on 23 April 2013 the Government approved the Interinstitutional Action Plan on the implementation of the goals and objectives for 2013-2020 of the National Strategy for Climate Change Management Policy. Action Plan indicates what financial resources are dedicated for the implementation of the measures and defines the implementing institutions. Assessment criteria and values are also established in the Action Plan. Following the Strategic planning methodology approved by the Government, the plan was prepared for the three years period and updated annually by adding one more year. In 30 December 2019 Lithuania adopted National energy and climate action plan of the Republic of Lithuania for 2021-2030 (NECP) and from 2020 the Interinstitutional Action Plan is incorporated in the NECP for the period of 2021–2030.

In NECP are 55 planned policy measures to adapt to climate change by 2030 for 9 sector-related fields of action. These fields are: Water resources, Forestry, ecosystems,
biodiversity and landscape, Transport, Infrastructure, Agriculture/aquaculture, Public health, Emergency management, Urbanized areas and Intersectoral objective.

Each measure described follows the same structure: Sector - Measure - Scope and results/effect envisaged - Implementation period - Entities responsible for implementing the policy.

Funding of planned climate change adaptation measures in NECP are a total of EUR 3,303.3 million is needed, of which EUR 260.4 million for the water sector, EUR 247 million for forestry, ecosystems, biodiversity and landscape, EUR 850 million for transport, EUR 666 million for infrastructure, EUR 1,073.1 million for agriculture, EUR 125 million for public health, EUR 68.1 million for emergency management and EUR 13.6 million for intersectoral objectives. The main sources of public funds in 2021-2030 will consist of the 2021-2027 EU fund (European Regional Development and Cohesion Funds) investments, electricity and heat tariffs, Climate Change Programme, Waste Management Programme, State and municipal budgets).

Selection of actions and (programmes of) measures

Not reported


Municipalities, together with relevant national-level ministries, are responsible for the implementation of the Strategy for National Climate Change Management Policy, as well as certain measures of the Action Plan - NECP. No adaptation strategies or plans have been prepared under the Covenant of Mayors initiative by the Lithuanian municipalities. Only the municipalities of Panevezys district and Klaipeda city developed adaptation action plans to improve local adaptive capacity and infrastructure resilience. The municipalities have developed emergency management plans and some of them included climate change risk in it.
From 2021 targets of climate change are implemented through the National Progress Plan 2021–2030 (NPP), which was adopted by the Government of Lithuania on 9 September 2020. The NPP has been drawn up with a view to identifying the main changes pursued by the State for the next decade and ensuring progress in the social, economic, environmental and security fields. The NPP will be implemented via sectorials programs. The measures listed in the NECP shall be mainstreamed to sectorial programs and then implemented, these programs are currently being updated. In such case all adaptation measures will be mainstreamed to sectorial programs and ministries responsible for measures will be responsible for implementation of it.
The NECP is implemented in collaboration with a ministries, municipalities and sector stakeholders from the public and private sector. Municipalities, together with relevant national-level ministries, are responsible for the implementation of the Strategy, as well as certain measures of the NECP. Flood risk has received the most attention at the sub-national level, so the EU-funded adaptation projects focus on coastal management and flood risks.

For developing sectoral programmes and other strategic documents, targeted working groups involving relevant stakeholders were created. These working groups usually play an important role in selecting specific measures or setting monitoring indicators, also identifying and addressing knowledge gaps in different sectors. For example, a Heat prevention working group is established, where specialists from different institutions (national and local authorities, universities, institutes) are working together to identify adaptation options and promote preparedness to heat events. A working group for National risk assessment is also being established.
Adaptation measures in NECP are not directly addressed to private sector, just the ministries or other institutions are responsible for implementation of adaptation measures. There are no legal requirements for private sector to implement measures to adapt to climate change. But some companies implementing some measures, like Closed joint-stock company "GRINDA" had project “Design for the construction of a surface runoff collector on T. Narbuto and Saltoniskiu streets and the construction of a wastewater treatment plant on Upes street in the city of Vilnius". The project is funded by the European Union Cohesion Fund, Vilnius City Municipality and “Grinda”.

The main task of the project was to resolve the issue of accumulation of precipitation water in an artificially created hollow in T. Narbuto street, resulting in the flooding of the street and traffic interruptions.

The design provides for the reconstruction, by the microtunnelling method, and/or installation of a new surface runoff collector pipe DN/OD1600mm, with the re-connection of existing networks, and the construction of a modern wastewater treatment plant. The actual wastewater flowrate will be measured downstream the plant and pollutant level sensors of the monitoring system will record critical concentrations of oil pollutants and solid particles.

This is the first municipal surface runoff management system in Lithuania designed in 3D environment according to the BIM digital information modelling technology and standards. 3D models and visualisations developed for both existing and new engineering networks, surface runoff treatment facilities and part of the land plot layout have helped to optimise the work and to adopt best solution.

The project also involved a development of a separate hydraulic model for the calculation of surface runoff quantities.
The Ministry of Environment reported on the implementation of the Action Plan annually. Action Plan indicated what financial resources are dedicated for the implementation of the measures and defines the implementing institutions. Assessment criteria and values are also established in the Action Plan. Following the Strategic planning methodology approved by the Government, the plan was prepared for the three years period and is updated annually by adding one more year. For period 2021-2030 all adaptation measures are in NECP. As all measures are in NECP reporting will be based on Regulation (EU) 2018/1999 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 11 December 2018 on the Governance of the Energy Union and Climate Action and other documents. The measures listed in the NECP shall be mainstreamed to sectorial programs and then implemented, these programs are currently being updated. In such case all adaptation measures will be mainstreamed to sectorial programs and ministries responsible for measures will be responsible for implementation of it. State and municipal institutions engaged in the implementation of the NECP will provide the Ministry of Environment information about the progress in implementing of the measures.
Implementation of climate change adaptation goals and objectives evaluation of effectiveness and efficiency, measures evaluation of implementation and effect achieved analysis had been prepared before updating Strategy (https://am.lrv.lt/uploads/a[…]ato%20kaitos%20GALUTINE.pdf). The results show that implementation and mainstreaming of adaptation we had in the various areas of action. Based on these results, sector goals were introduced in the revised Strategy and prepared adaptation measures in NECP.
In 2019 we prepared evaluation of the implementation of the intended goals, objectives and measures. We found that the goals and targets of climate change do not include some sectors sensitive to the effects of climate change, included only one economy sector is agriculture, at that time no measures are planned for some economy sectors. Base on it in the updated Strategy we included goals and targets for more economy sectors and measures in NECP to address the effects of climate change risk reduction.
In 2013-2017 to implement the strategic goal of adaptation to climate change a total of 316.1 mln. EUR was planned and 343 mln. EUR provided, so about 8.5 % more.
In 2013-2017 the largest share of funding went to agriculture and soil (54% of the total) and water resources (40% of total funding) and only 6% to other sectors.

Spending used to support climate adaptation in each sector in 2013-2017:

Cross-cutting goals and objectives - 10,1 mln. EUR

Agriculture and soil - 184,5 mln. EUR

Forestry, ecosystems, biodiversity, landscape - 11,1 mln. EUR

Water resources - 137,4 mln. EUR

Public health - 143 TEUR
A national overview of the progress towards reducing climate impacts, vulnerabilities and risks is currently not available.
A national overview of the progress towards increasing adaptive capacity is currently not available.
A national overview of the progress towards meeting adaptation priorities is currently not available.
A national overview of the progress towards addressing barriers to adaptation is currently not available.
A study identifying the vulnerability to climate change of the individual sectors, risk assessment and opportunities to adapt to climate change, the most efficient adaptation measures and evaluation indicators was accomplished in 2015.
In 2019 we prepared evaluation of the implementation of the intended goals, objectives and measures. Review of NECP is planned in 2023.
Review of NECP is planned in 2023 and will be implemented by new adaptation measures based of updated Strategy goals and tasks.

Good practices and lessons learnt

Not reported
Paris Agreement on Climate Change, the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 (SFDRR) have synergies with adaptation actions and are very important for progress of it.
Lithuania has been active within the Baltic Sea Region Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan. Lithuanian non-governmental and academic institutions are also quite active in various regional projects being implemented in the area of adaptation to climate change. In these projects the adaptation options to be applied at local level are analysed and elaborated.
The Strategy sets goals and targets in the most vulnerable sectors which are relevant to transboundary cooperation. The transboundary cooperation is invoked responding to the needs to address common challenges with relevant countries. The transboundary cooperation in flood risk management is organized within the framework of already existing intergovernmental agreements between Lithuania, Latvia and Poland to cooperate and exchange information and data in environmental fields. The transboundary cooperation is also ensured through implementation of the four River basin management plans.

Ministry of Environment

Climate policy group
Coordinating adaptation policies
Judita Liukaityte-Kukiene
National focal point for adaptation
[Disclaimer]
The information presented in these pages is based on the reporting according to 'Regulation (EU) 2018/1999 on the Governance of the Energy Union and Climate Action' and updates by the EEA member countries. However, for those pages where the information is last updated before 01/01/2021, the information presented is based on the reporting according to 'Regulation (EU) No 525/2013 on a mechanism for monitoring and reporting greenhouse gas emissions and for reporting other information relevant to climate change' and updates by the EEA member countries.'