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National circumstances relevant to adaptation actions

Sweden extends in a south-south-westerly/north-northeasterly direction from latitudes 55 to 69 degrees north and from longitudes 11 to 23 degrees east, with a land area of
408,150 km2. Urban land make up 3% of the land area, while productive forest land account for 58%, farmland 8%, wetlands 13%, mires, rock surface, subalpine woodlands and high mountains 17%, and other land 2%. Inland water systems total more than 40,000 km2, or more than 9% of the total area (Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, 2017). Southern Sweden is low-lying, with agricultural land predominating in the far south. The only real mountain chain, with peaks rising to over 2,000 m above sea level, is along the Norwegian border in the north-west.

Land rise (postglacial rebound) is taking place in most of Sweden because of the melting of land ice after the last ice age, but has ceased in the far south. Rising sea levels is causing substantial erosion along the south coast, which is characterised by easily eroded soils. Climate change due to future increases in atmospheric temperature will accelerate erosion through rising sea levels. Forest land is an important natural resource that provides scope for biobased energy supply. In the past 50 years, farmland has successively given way to other land uses, mainly forest land. This has resulted in reduced emissions from agriculture and increased carbon sequestration in forest biomass. Besides forests, another key natural resource is iron ore, a pillar of Swedish industrial production. Abundant flowing watercourses are a significant resource for hydropower production.
The population of Sweden at the end of 2016 was 10 million, with 23% aged up to 19 and 20% 65 and over (Table 2.1). Since 1990, the mean annual growth rate has been 0.6% and by 2030 the population is expected to reach 11.5 million. Average population density is 24.5 inhabitants per km2 , ranging from 3 per km2 in northern Sweden to
121 per km2 in the south (Statistics Sweden 2017a).

In Sweden, as in other countries, migration from rural to urban areas is under way. In 2015, 87% of the population lived in towns and cities. Urban areas amounted to 617,000
ha, which was 2% of Sweden’s land area (Statistics Sweden, 2016). Between 1960 and 2005, the urban area increased by 54% and the urban population by 47%.

Accordingly, more land per capita was used for housing, infrastructure and services. Between 2010 and 2015, population density in towns and cities rose from 1,317 to
1,389 inhabitants per km2.
Swedish public administration is organised at central, regional and local levels. The central level consists of a number of agencies serving as the Government’s expert
bodies and implementing the policies adopted by the Riksdag and Government. For regional and local public administration, there are 21 county administrative boards
and 290 municipalities, and some central government agencies have regional offices. Swedish municipalities are autonomous, with boards and councils elected by their
respective citizens in separate elections.

Sweden has an open, trade-oriented economy. In 2016 the nation’s gross domestic production (GDP) was SEK 4,319 billion in 2016, or close to SEK 435,500 per capita, placing
the nation among the richest countries in the world. Natural resources, such as forest and iron ore, are a basis for industrial production and, along with the engineering
industry, have brought about a strongly export-oriented economy.

The Swedish energy system is partly based on domestic sources of renewable energy such as water, wind and biofuel. In addition, a large proportion of the energy supplied is dependent on imports such as nuclear fuel for electricity production in nuclear reactors and fossil fuels like oil and natural gas for the transport system. Swedish
electricity production is based largely on hydropower and nuclear power, but the expansion of wind power is steadily increasing as well as the use of biofuel for electricity and
heat production.

Domestic transport is dominated by road traffic. Transport activity for passengers and goods alike has increased since 1970, but the trends are somewhat different. For goods transport, road transport and shipping account for roughly equal proportions while rail represents a smaller share.

Reporting updated until: 2021-03-15

Item Status Links
National adaptation strategy (NAS)
  • actual NAS - adopted
National adaptation plan (NAP)
Sectoral adaptation plan (SAP)
  • actual SAP - adopted
  • actual SAP - adopted
  • actual SAP - adopted
  • actual SAP - adopted
  • actual SAP - adopted
  • actual SAP - adopted
  • actual SAP - adopted
  • actual SAP - adopted
  • actual SAP - adopted
  • actual SAP - adopted
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  • actual SAP - adopted
  • actual SAP - adopted
  • actual SAP - adopted
  • actual SAP - adopted
  • actual SAP - adopted
  • actual SAP - adopted
  • actual SAP - adopted
  • actual SAP - adopted
  • actual SAP - adopted
Climate change impact and vulnerability assessment
  • completed
Meteorological observations
  • Established
Climate projections and services
  • Established
Adaptation portals and platforms
  • Established
Monitoring, reporting and evaluation (MRE) indicators and methodologies
Key reports and publications
National communication to the UNFCCC
Governance regulation adaptation reporting
Research on climate and climate change is carried out at many universities and institutes around Sweden. One of the main sites is the Rossby Centre at SMHI, which focuses on increasing the understanding of the future climate with regards to meteorological, oceanographic and hydrological aspects. The Centre conducts work both on model development and evaluation of data, as well as modelling applications for process studies and climate change
research in support of impact and adaptation studies. Scenarios and indices on climate change in Sweden are readily available. SMHI’s website at www.smhi.se/klimat presents climate information in the form of maps,
diagrams and downloadable data, free of charge. Information is also available explaining the results, including uncertainties, and how they have been developed. An introduction to climate scenarios is available (in Swedish).

The site also contains guidance (in Swedish) that provides support for interpreting and using climate scenarios. The information is based on CMIP5. In 2014, the global scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5 from IPCC AR5 were downscaled to regional. In 2015, the regional results were published in the form of a series of regional reports, available through www.smhi.se. The purpose of these reports was to provide relevant and useful information for decision makers at the regional and local levels. In total, 21 reports were produced, one for each administrative region. In order to ensure that all regions would have comparable information, the reports were developed with a common information base (temperature, precipitation, runoff and soil moisture). Systematic climate observation includes various measurements in meteorology, hydrology and oceanography. The Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) operates networks for these on a national level in Sweden. In addition, other monitoring research infrastructures exist that can contribute to more systematic and coherent information on the changes in marine and land-based systems.

Sweden maintains strong climate research efforts on climate models, effects of climate change on ecosystems and society and measures for reducing emissions and adapting to climate change, including technology. Research
on climate change is also gaining more transdisciplinarity and integration with the society. Energy research and research on societal actors, institutions and processes is likewise highly relevant for understanding mitigation and
adaptation to climate change, but it might not always be categorised as climate research.
The Rossby Centre at SMHI is the main Swedish performer of climate model development and climate projections. It contributes internationally both to global and regional climate modelling. The Centre co-leads the work of developing a new global Earth system model EC-Earth that describes several additional processes, such as dynamic vegetation as well as components for interactive atmospheric chemistry and ocean biogeochemistry. The Bolin Centre at Stockholm University contributes to this development. Inclusion of these different parts of the climate system are necessary for the long-term study of climate effects, as climate change-induced changes in the natural carbon cycle can be quite significant, with consequences for the overall warming and cumulative emissions. A previous version of the EC-Earth was used to produce climate projections for CMIP5 (the fifth Climate Model Intercomparison Project) Research and systematic observation by SMHI and Stockholm University. The new model version will be used in the context of CMIP6 to produce climate change projections. In Sweden, SMHI, Stockholm University and Lund University are the main contributors to this work. SMHI is a world-leading producer of regional climate scenarios. Its Rossby Centre has produced and made available a very large number of CORDEX simulations (Coordinated Regional Downscaling Climate Experiment) via the Swedish ESGF node (ESGF, the Earth System Grid Federation, is the international standard for sharing climate model data and is also used in the CMIP). The data is used for regional studies of climate change impacts, and SMHI has created much of its work on national climate change information and climate adaptation support based on this material. The Rossby Centre also drives the development of next-generation high-resolution regional models intended to be used for calculations at a horizontal resolution of a few kilometres. High-resolution models provide better opportunities to study weather phenomena such as high-intensity rainfall and wind conditions in complex terrain.
The first vulnerability assessment of climate change impacts in Sweden was completed in 2007. The report assessed the vulnerability to global climate change, the regional and local impacts of these changes and the costs of the damage caused. An updated assessment was made in 2015, and a number of suggested actions from this are now being carried out. The need for local and regional analysis is still significant. In addition, there is a need for vulnerability assessments that include cross-border aspects, as well as assessments that include the indirect effects of climate change outside Sweden.

Efforts are being made to improve adaptive capacity, with several national authorities developing adaptation action plans for their areas of responsibility. Plans are also in place at the regional level, and in many cities. Significant progress and increased awareness of the importance of adaptation have been achieved in the last few years.
Observed climate hazards Acute Chronic
Temperature
  • Wildfire
  • Permafrost thawing
Wind
  • Storm (including blizzards dust and sandstorms)
Water
  • Snow and ice load
  • Precipitation and/or hydrological variability
Solid mass
  • Subsidence
  • Solifluction
Key future climate hazards Acute Chronic
Temperature
  • Wildfire
  • Permafrost thawing
Wind
  • Storm (including blizzards dust and sandstorms)
Water
  • Snow and ice load
  • Sea level rise
Solid mass
  • Subsidence
  • Solifluction
Many aspects of Swedish society will be affected by climate change. Heavy rainfall is already causing significant economic damage, and the occurrence of these types of events is expected to increase. That climate change affects human health is well known, however the magnitude is hard to predict with precision, and varies with local preconditions
and vulnerability. In addition, there are important impacts on infrastructure, agriculture, cultural heritage and other areas.

Wildfire and drought

Compared to many other countries, Sweden is spared from major disasters caused by extreme drought. During dry years, however, water shortages pose serious challenges in the country both locally and regionally. Mainly the eastern parts of southern and central Sweden are affected. Every year, 3,000–4,000 wildfires occur in Sweden on average. The magnitude of the fires varies from year to year, but often more than 2,000 hectares of land is affected. The financial impacts are large in terms of emergency response and damage to forests and buildings.

Health

Heatwaves are quite rare in Sweden compared with southern Europe. However, the optimal temperature varies between different countries and since our population is adapted to a cooler climate a temperature increase will affect health. Recent research has shown that warm periods lead to both increased mortality and morbidity in Sweden.

Heavy precipitation

Events of heavy precipitation have a major impact on our society. Flooded streets and roads, collapsing roofs and ruined harvests are some of the negative effects caused by heavy precipitation. In urban areas runoff often occurs from small areas with a high proportion of impervious surfaces, and this process can be rapid. Heavy loads of snow can overload roofs. Extreme rainfall can lead to high water flows in rivers and lakes and can cause problems in cities where stormwater systems cannot handle large amounts of rainfall.

Snow, ice and zero crossings

Sweden is a large country with great variations in temperature and precipitation. This is especially apparent when looking at snow and ice cover. Large amounts of snow can cause major problems in traffic and damage to buildings, overhead power lines and trees. The problems tend to get worse when combined with strong winds or if the snow is wet and heavy. About 85% of Sweden’s exports and imports are transported via commercial shipping. This is affected by ice cover – large parts of Sweden’s waters freeze every year, and every winter approximately 500–2,000 ships require icebreaker assistance to get in and out of Swedish ports. During severe winters, sea ice may also affect other infrastructure such as bridges, passenger ships and coastal communities. The ice condition can hamper crisis management, such as search and rescue and oil spill response. Snow and ice also provide opportunities for recreation such as skiing and ice skating and for tourism.

Erosion and landslides

Erosion is the effect caused by the wearing down of the landscape by running water, waves, wind and ice. In Sweden, it is mainly water erosion that is of significance to built-up areas. Coastal erosion is affected chiefly by geological conditions, sea level, wave climate, wind conditions and currents. Increased precipitation and runoff can cause high flows and erosion along river banks and watercourses. The most affected areas are in the western parts of the country and areas in central and northern Sweden. This affects the countryside as well as built-up areas. Decreased soil stability due to increased precipitation and erosion can also cause landslides.

Indirect effects

For a country like Sweden with extensive international operations, it is particularly important to direct attention to possible impacts from changes in the wider world. The global effects of climate change may include shortages of food, water and safe living environments, with consequences such as poverty, social unrest and armed conflict. The impact on trade flows, economic development and migration are some of the areas in which an indirect impact of climate change can be predicted.
Wildfire and drought

Climate scenarios indicate a decrease in water availability in large parts of southern Sweden. These conditions may also increase the risk of wildfires. Drought can cause water scarcity and hamper vegetation growth. In southern Sweden the water demand is often greatest when resources are at their lowest. The consequences are even worse in combination with high temperatures as evaporation will increase. Drought causes low water flow to waterways and low water levels in lakes, leading to water shortages and competition between different types of water use such as water supply, irrigation or sewage.

Growing season

The length of the growing season is expected to increase by one to two months throughout Sweden, except in the far south where the increase is estimated to be up to three months. Changes in the timings of the growing season can cause problems for plants and animals. For example, a plant that flowers too early, before the pollinators are active, will not be

Key affected sectors

Impact/key hazard
not applicable
There is currently no up to date assessment of this.
Key hazard likelihood
different likelihood of their occurrence and exposure for different key hazards and/or climate scenarios
Most climate scenarios show some increase in wind speed across the parts of the Baltic that will become ice-free in a warmer climate, including the Gulf of Finland, the Gulf of Bothnia and the Bothnian Sea. A warmer ocean surface and more water vapour in the atmosphere contribute to the development of storms. At the same time this warming leads to reduced differences between warm and cold air masses, which play an important role in the development of intense storms. This may in turn counteract the amplifying effect that warming has on storm development.

Several of the risk factors for wildfire are expected to change, and the size and number of forest fires can be expected to increase. The length of the fire risk season is increasing, especially in the south. The biggest change is an earlier start to the season. The frequency and length of high-risk periods is also increasing. The most extreme fire risk conditions are expected to be found on the islands of Öland and Gotland.

Flooding may become more common in the south as a consequence of rising sea levels. The impact on lakes and watercourses varies across the country; in some areas the risk of flooding will increase, in others it will decrease. Increased risk of heavy rainfall may increase the risk of pluvial flooding.

With increasing temperatures, especially during the winter, the snow cover duration is expected to decrease. This may reduce the extent of spring floods, but increase water flows during the winter.
Vulnerability
not applicable
There is currently no up to date assessment of this.
Risk Future Impact
different rating of risks for different key hazards and/or under different climate scenarios
Society is dependent on well-functioning and safe electronic communication. This is, in turn, dependent on a continuous supply of electricity. Even short power cuts can result in large consequences for the users. Increased risks for storm damage to forests affects power lines in the air, as well as the masts. Work is ongoing to move more lines underground, and to move to radio communications, but air lines, and the risks connected to them, will remain for several years. During a flood, entire areas are likely to lose power. This means that electronic communication may become compromised. Many large fibre cables are incorporated into bridges and will be damaged if the bridge is flushed away. Work is ongoing to protect electronic communication, for example to increase the robustness of systems and their resilience to precipitation, wind, thunder, dampness, extreme temperatures, floods, landslides and fire.
Impact/key hazard
mixed impacts for different hazards
The vegetation period has increased in Sweden, in the north of the country by about two weeks in the last 40 years. A longer vegetation period and warmer winters generally favour plant cultivation, with opportunities for larger harvests and new crops. However, flooding and torrential rain can cause significant economic damage as a result of destroyed harvests, soil damage and increased labour and production costs. Long spells of high temperatures and low rainfall, such as in the summer of 2018 have lead to problems with water availability for agriculture and to drought.
Key hazard likelihood
different likelihood of their occurrence and exposure for different key hazards and/or climate scenarios
There is currently no up to date assessment of this.
Vulnerability
not applicable
There is currently no up to date assessment of this.
Risk Future Impact
different rating of risks for different key hazards and/or under different climate scenarios
A longer vegetation period and warmer winters generally favour plant cultivation, with opportunities for larger harvests and new crops. However, flooding and torrential rain can cause economic damage as a result of destroyed harvests, soil damage and increased labour and production costs. A warmer climate with increased evaporation, combined with wider variation in precipitation during the summer, can lead to lower ground moisture, with poorer crop establishment and growth as a result. There is a risk of reduced access to water for irrigation and livestock farming. A warmer climate may also involve new plant pests becoming established and bigger problems with existing pests. A warmer, damper and more varied climate affects the health and wellbeing of agricultural animals. Diseases can spread more easily, and heat stress may be a more serious problem. A longer growing season with warmer springs and autumns provides opportunities for grazing animals to spend more time outside.

Increased forest growth leads to greater timber production, with increased frequency and scope of damage from plant pests and storms, as well as wetter forest land which can involve significant costs. Wetter, warmer winters mean less ground frost and thus forests that are more sensitive to storms. The risk of landslides can also increase, particularly in connection with forest management and felling. The risk of drought becomes greater and the risk of forest fires rises. Changed winter snow conditions will make access to grazing land for reindeer more difficult.

These industries are also indirectly affected by processes caused by climate change around the world. The global consequences of climate change may affect demand for Swedish agricultural products. As a nation we are currently highly dependent on importing food, and the changed conditions for food production in other countries and the overall trading conditions may have consequences for Sweden.
Impact/key hazard
mixed impacts for different hazards
During the course of the 20th century, the tree line has advanced by around 100-150 metres in the Swedish mountains, caused by climate change combined with changes in land use. (Source: www.naturvardsverket.se)
Key hazard likelihood
different likelihood of their occurrence and exposure for different key hazards and/or climate scenarios
Regional climate scenarios show that the annual mean temperature will increase by 2 to 7 °C by 2071–2100 compared to 1961–1990. The greatest increase (2-9°C) is expected during the winter. The changes have significant regional differences, with the biggest effect in the north of Sweden.

As an effect of higher sea levels, coastal erosion will increase along the country’s coast, primarily in southern Sweden. It is primarily along sandy coasts that erosion will increase. Frequent sand erosion takes place, for example, along the coast of Skåne, where the coastline has moved over 150 m inland over the last 30 years in some places.

As the climate changes, the oceans will become warmer. The increasing levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere will also result in the acidification of the oceans. This will have consequences for the ecosystems, fish stocks and the fishing industries. It is not yet established how the Baltic Sea will be affected.

In a future warmer climate, ice winters on Swedish lakes and the Baltic Sea are expected to be both shorter and milder. The duration of the ice winter will become shorter, and the geographic extent of the ice is reducing. These changes are greatest in the south, while the Bothnian Bay and the Bothnian Sea are the least affected. Since the variations from year to year will also be great in the future, there may be harsh ice winters, even if these are fewer in number.

Extreme heat events, which now occur every 20 years on average, may occur every three to five years by the end of the century. Temperatures of 40°C may occur every 20 years in the south.

Incidents of dry conditions are expected to increase, in southern Sweden from 0-20 days per year during the period 1963-1992 to 20-45 days (RCP4.5) or 30-55 days (RCP8.5) by the end of the century.

Milder winters with increased precipitation are expected to become more common in a future climate, and gradually the conditions for ground frost will change.
Vulnerability
not applicable
There is currently no up to date assessment of this.
Risk Future Impact
different rating of risks for different key hazards and/or under different climate scenarios
Climate change is expected to lead to major changes in terms of biodiversity, ecosystems and the landscape. Climate conditions – together with soil types and hydrology – largely determine whether or not a species can survive in a given area. The consequences for ecosystems will affect the opportunities to achieve several of the Swedish environmental objectives. Ecosystem services are affected as an indirect effect of climate change, which has consequences for forestry, agriculture, reindeer herding, fishing, cultural heritage, tourism and outdoor leisure activities. When it comes to the ability to adapt, species and habitats in mountain areas, pine forests and bogs are deemed to be the most vulnerable. There are particularly sensitive ecosystems in northern Scandinavia. Mountain areas are especially sensitive to climate change, and Sweden’s alpine areas are expected to shrink significantly as the tree line rises. With an increase of the global average temperature of 1,5 degrees C, the treeline is expected to move by at least a further 100 metres. A greater temperature increase will cause an even greater change. Mountain birch will take over the now bare mountain region, and the current areas of mountain birch will be dominated by pine and spruce.
Impact/key hazard
not applicable
There is currently no up to date assessment of this.
Key hazard likelihood
different likelihood of their occurrence and exposure for different key hazards and/or climate scenarios
In much of Sweden, the rising sea level is countered by land uplift. This is greatest in north, on the Bothnian Bay coast (approx.. 10 mm/year) and smallest in Skåne (approx. 0 mm/year). Around 23% of municipalities are classed as being in risk classes 2 and 3 for flooding caused by rising sea levels, requiring wider reaching measures.

Extreme heat events, which now occur every 20 years on average, may occur every three to five years by the end of the century. Temperatures of 40°C may occur every 20 years in the south.

In the summer the intensity of heavy rainfall is estimated to increase by 10–15% by 2071–2100, compared to 1961–1990. The rain intensity of a 10-year rain is expected to rise by about 10%. The expected return period of a 20-year rain will drop down to 6–10 years during the summer and 2–4 years for the winter in Sweden.

The main areas that face an increased risk of landslides in a changing climate are in the western and southern parts, as well as areas along the east coast. The risk of ravines developing might increase in some areas. An increased risk of moraine landslides and mudslides is also expected in central areas. The Göta River valley is one of Sweden’s most susceptible valleys in terms of landslides. Areas with a high risk of landslides are expected to increase by around 10% by 2100 compared with current figures if no measures are taken.

Flooding may become more common in the south as a consequence of rising sea levels. The impact on lakes and watercourses varies across the country; in some areas the risk of flooding will increase, in others it will decrease. Increased risk of heavy rainfall may increase the risk of pluvial flooding.

Changing precipitation patterns and groundwater conditions may lead to subsidence or landslides.

With increasing temperatures, especially during the winter, the snow cover duration is expected to decrease.
Vulnerability
not applicable
There is currently no up to date assessment of this.
Risk Future Impact
different rating of risks for different key hazards and/or under different climate scenarios
A changed climate is expected to lead to significantly increased risks for buildings and structures. This involves greater risks of flooding for buildings near beaches, increased risks of landslides, coastal and beach erosion, additional load on sewage systems, etc. In western and southwestern Sweden, flooding alongside watercourses is expected to become more frequent. Increased 100-year flows in the mountain regions alongside watercourses can also present a risk for buildings. A higher sea level places greater demands on measures and planning for new buildings, in particular along Sweden’s southern coasts. Larger and more intense volumes of precipitation and changed groundwater levels will probably also increase the risk of landslides and erosion, especially in southwestern and western Sweden and on parts of the east coast. Higher sea levels, particularly on Sweden’s southernmost coasts, lead to beach erosion with consequences for buildings and infrastructure, as well as large value losses. The risk of basement flooding from a higher load on sewage systems is also higher. This is due to increased amounts of rain and a redistribution of rain to the autumn, winter and spring, when evaporation is low and the ground is saturated, as well as a higher frequency of extreme torrential rain which leads to pipes becoming overloaded. More precipitation also brings a greater risk of damp and mould damage, and to increased external maintenance needs for new and existing buildings. Higher temperatures lead to less need for heating, but an increased need for cooling. Historic buildings are often particularly vulnerable. Since people have long used water as a source of energy and a means of communication, these buildings are often located in sensitive areas such as along the coast. The knock-on effects that risk arising from a warmer, damper climate such as mould, more vegetation and pest infestations can also make it harder to preserve valuable cultural environments.
Impact/key hazard
not applicable
There is currently no up to date assessment of this.
Key hazard likelihood
not applicable
As the climate changes, the oceans will become warmer. The increasing levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere will also result in the acidification of the oceans. This will have consequences for the ecosystems, fish stocks and the fishing industries. It is not yet established how the Baltic Sea will be affected.

In a future warmer climate, ice winters on Swedish lakes and the Baltic Sea are expected to be both shorter and milder. The duration of the ice winter will become shorter, and the extent of the ice is reducing. These changes are greatest in the south, while the Bothnian Bay and the Bothnian Sea are the least affected. Since the variations from year to year will also be great in the future, there may be harsh ice winters, even if these are fewer in number.

Availability and quality of water is expected to decrease in large parts of southern Sweden, due to higher temperatures and a longer growing season. The risk of infiltration by saltwater is increasing in coastal and low-lying areas, such as around Lake Mälaren and on Gotland. This, together with more heavy rains, increases the risk of pollution of water catchment areas.

Extreme heat events, which now occur every 20 years on average, may occur every three to five years by the end of the century. Temperatures of 40°C may occur every 20 years in the south.

Flooding may become more common in the south as a consequence of rising sea levels. The impact on lakes and watercourses varies across the country; in some areas the risk of flooding will increase, in others it will decrease. Increased risk of heavy rainfall may increase the risk of pluvial flooding.

With increasing temperatures, especially during the winter, the snow cover duration is expected to decrease. This may reduce the extent of spring floods, but increase water flows during the winter.
Vulnerability
not applicable
There is currently no up to date assessment of this.
Risk Future Impact
different rating of risks for different key hazards and/or under different climate scenarios
Many types of businesses will be acutely affected by the changes in climate, for example due to changes to access to and cost of water, energy and raw materials. Increased incidents of flooding, landslides, erosion, fires and intensive heatwaves will affect business infrastructure. A warmer climate will also affect direct investments, insurance costs and the international transportation of goods.

Of all the water that is extracted for use in Sweden, 2/3 is used by industry. A reduction in the accessibility of water may result in increased restrictions on water extraction.

Extreme weather events have a major effect on the energy supply, as high temperatures, flooding, strong winds and storms can cause operational disruptions. These events may become more frequent and severe.

Climate change may result in changes to the possibility of producing raw materials, in Sweden and elsewhere. International transportation of goods may become more difficult as a result of rising sea levels and the increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, leading to protracted delivery times and increased costs.

Today, Swedish companies are offered insurance protection against climate-related damage. Some of Sweden’s insurance companies have begun to review their policies for construction at sites with greater vulnerability to climatic conditions. The insurance industry is also exposed to the international situation by international reinsurance. Increased instability and financial losses in many parts of the world are therefore expected to affect the insurance industry.

The effects of climate change will impact financial assets. Swedish direct investments in other countries may be affected, as will the direct investments of other countries in Sweden.

Decreased productivity elsewhere may increase opportunities for Swedish exports such as food, energy and wood. However, international deliveries may become more difficult, impacting imports and exports of goods and raw materials.
Impact/key hazard
mixed impacts for different hazards
Extensive coastal erosion is already taking place along parts of Skåne’s south coast, where the coastline has moved more than 200 metres inland over the last 40 years in some places. Sea level rise can be observed in the south of Sweden, whereas landlift compensates in the rest of the country.
Key hazard likelihood
different likelihood of their occurrence and exposure for different key hazards and/or climate scenarios
As an effect of higher sea levels, coastal erosion will increase along the country’s coast, primarily in southern Sweden. It is primarily along sandy coasts that erosion will increase. Frequent sand erosion takes place, for example, along the coast of Skåne, where the coastline has moved over 150 m inland over the last 30 years in some places. Increased runoff and flows can lead to increased erosion in watercourses, both on streambeds and in the riparian zone.

As the climate changes, the oceans will become warmer. The increasing levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere will also result in the acidification of the oceans. This will have consequences for the ecosystems, fish stocks and the fishing industries. It is not yet established how the Baltic Sea will be affected.

The risk of infiltration by saltwater is increasing in water sources in coastal and low-lying areas, such as around Lake Mälaren and on Gotland. This, together with more heavy rains, increases the risk of pollution of water catchment areas.

In much of Sweden, the rising sea level is countered by land uplift. It is greatest in northern Sweden on the Bothnian Bay coast (approx.. 10 mm per year) and smallest in Skåne (approx. 0 mm per year). A risk classification of the proportion of municipalities affected by flooding as a result of rising sea levels showed that 23% where in risk classes 2 and 3, requiring wider reaching measures. 71% were in Risk class 0, which means that the municipalities are not in coastal locations.

In a future warmer climate, ice winters on Swedish lakes and the Baltic Sea are expected to be both shorter and milder. The duration of the ice winter will become shorter, and the extent of the ice is reducing. These changes are greatest in the south, while the Bothnian Bay and the Bothnian Sea are the least affected. Since the variations from year to year will also be great in the future, there may be harsh ice winters, even if these are fewer in number.
Vulnerability
mixed situation for different key hazards
There is currently no up to date assessment of this.
Risk Future Impact
different rating of risks for different key hazards and/or under different climate scenarios
As a consequence of higher sea levels in combination with storms, erosion will increase along Sweden’s coasts, particularly in the south of the country where the beaches consist of land that erodes easily. Rising sea levels mean that the sea will reach previously unaffected areas of land, exposing them to erosion.

Increased runoff and flows can lead to increased erosion in watercourses, both on streambeds and in the riparian zone. Ice flows caused by varying water levels can result in increased erosion since ice chafes against the coastline. If material erodes away in the riparian zone, the equilibrium of the slope can be disturbed and a landslide can be triggered. Increased erosion along coastlines means a greater risk of damage to coastal buildings and infrastructure, the spread of contaminants, and impact on areas of natural and cultural value.
Impact/key hazard
not applicable
There is currently no up to date assessment of this.
Key hazard likelihood
different likelihood of their occurrence and exposure for different key hazards and/or climate scenarios
Extreme heat events, which now occur every 20 years on average, may occur every three to five years by the end of the century. Temperatures of 40°C may occur every 20 years in the south.

Milder winters with increased precipitation are expected to become more common in a future climate, and gradually the conditions for ground frost will change.

Most climate scenarios show some increase in wind speed across the parts of the Baltic that will become ice-free in a warmer climate, including the Gulf of Finland, the Gulf of Bothnia and the Bothnian Sea. A warmer ocean surface and more water vapour in the atmosphere contribute to the development of storms. At the same time this warming leads to reduced differences between warm and cold air masses, which play an important role in the development of intense storms. This may in turn counteract the amplifying effect that warming has on storm development.

Several of the risk factors for wildfire are expected to change, and the size and number of forest fires can be expected to increase. The length of the fire risk season is increasing, especially in the south. The biggest change is an earlier start to the season. The frequency and length of high-risk periods is also increasing. The most extreme fire risk conditions are expected to be found on the islands of Öland and Gotland.

Flooding may become more common in the south as a consequence of rising sea levels. The impact on lakes and watercourses varies across the country; in some areas the risk of flooding will increase, in others it will decrease. Increased risk of heavy rainfall may increase the risk of pluvial flooding.

With increasing temperatures, especially during the winter, the snow cover duration is expected to decrease. This may reduce the extent of spring floods, but increase water flows during the winter.
Vulnerability
not applicable
There is currently no up to date assessment of this.
Risk Future Impact
different rating of risks for different key hazards and/or under different climate scenarios
Increased precipitation and heavier rainfall will lead to an increased risk of landslides and floods. Other weatherrelated threats such as extreme heatwaves, storms, thunderstorms, sleet and icing may also increase. Events like these already pose threats to the Swedish energy system, mainly at the regional and local level. Energy security can also be affected by changes in the annual pattern of energy use, runoff patterns for water power, higher cooling water temperatures and changes in biofuel management. None of these changes manifest any greater vulnerability of the energy security, but in combination they may weaken the Swedish energy supply chain. Many different types of weather threats, and also in combination with other external factors, can cause adverse events in the energy system. The consequences include limited access to energy, high energy prices and interruptions in delivery. Because energy security concerns so many, efforts at national, regional and municipal levels will be needed. The Swedish Energy Agency has proposed measures for trade associations, private individuals, companies, funding agencies, municipalities, authorities and government.
Impact/key hazard
mixed impacts for different hazards
In 2014, flooding, storms and forest fires brought high costs for society and for the insurance business. In particular, costs for flooding increased to over one billion SEK for the insurance companies.
Key hazard likelihood
different likelihood of their occurrence and exposure for different key hazards and/or climate scenarios
As an effect of higher sea levels, coastal erosion will increase along the coast, primarily in southern Sweden. It is primarily along sandy coasts that erosion will increase. Frequent sand erosion takes place along the coast of Skåne, where the coastline has moved over 150 m inland over the last 30 years in some places.

Climate scenarios provide no clear answer on the future of storms. There may be increased wind speeds across parts of the Baltic Sea. A warmer ocean surface and more water vapour in the atmosphere contribute to the development of storms. At the same time this warming leads to reduced differences between warm and cold air masses, which may counteract the amplifying effect that warming has on storm development.

In the summer the intensity of heavy rainfall is estimated to increase by 10–15% by 2071–2100, compared to 1961–1990. The rain intensity of a 10-year rain is expected to rise by about 10%. The expected return period of a 20-year rain will drop down to 6–10 years during the summer and 2–4 years for the winter in Sweden.

Several of the risk factors for wildfire are expected to change, and the size and number of forest fires can be expected to increase. The length of the fire risk season is increasing, especially in the south. The biggest change is an earlier start to the season. The frequency and length of high-risk periods is also increasing. The most extreme fire risk conditions are expected to be found on the islands of Öland and Gotland.

Flooding may become more common in the south as a consequence of rising sea levels. The impact on lakes and watercourses varies across the country; in some areas the risk of flooding will increase, in others it will decrease. Increased risk of heavy rainfall may increase the risk of pluvial flooding.
Vulnerability
not applicable
There is currently no up to date assessment of this.
Risk Future Impact
different rating of risks for different key hazards and/or under different climate scenarios
The role of financial markets is to calculate risks, achieve profit and avoid loss. Climate change has long been absent in different types of risk analyses, even though extreme weather events can have an impact. Insurance covers citizens and businesses against unpredictable events. If an event is no longer unpredictable, it no longer qualifies for insurance cover. This may apply to repeat flooding of a basement, for example. No insurance mechanisms currently support preventive action. Swedish home insurance typically includes cover for flooding, but this practice may become difficult to maintain with repeated incidents and increasing costs. Cloudbursts in major cities can knock out important societal functions and the cost of damages can escalate. The individual home owner is responsible for damages to his or her property. Preventive action decreases the risk of flooding. The owner can, for example, separate wastewater from stormwater and avoid paved surfaces. To support home owners, scientists and insurance companies have developed a web-based tool called Vis adapt (www.visadapt.info). It provides information about the effects of a changing climate and advice on how to avoid damage to buildings
Impact/key hazard
mixed impacts for different hazards
Every year, 3,000–4,000 wildfires occur in Sweden on average. The magnitude of the fires varies from year to year, but often more than 2,000 hectares of land is affected. The financial impacts are large in terms of
emergency response and damage to forests and buildings. It is not just drought and wind conditions that determine the size of a wildfire, but also how quickly the fire is discovered and the availability of firefighting resources. Consequently, large forest areas in the sparsely populated parts of the north, and along the coast in northern Sweden as well as inland, often suffer from large fires.
Key hazard likelihood
different likelihood of their occurrence and exposure for different key hazards and/or climate scenarios
Regional climate scenarios show that the annual mean temperature will increase by 2 to 7 °C by 2071–2100 compared to 1961–1990. The greatest increase (2-9°C) is expected during the winter. The changes have significant regional differences, with the biggest effect in the north of Sweden.

Precipitation is expected to increase by 0–40% over the next century, mainly in winter. During the summer, precipitation in the south is expected to decrease, while changes for the northern part of the country may be small.

Extreme heat events, which now occur every 20 years on average, may occur every three to five years by the end of the century. Temperatures of 40°C may occur every 20 years in the south.

Incidents of dry conditions are expected to increase, in southern Sweden from 0-20 days per year during the period 1963-1992 to 20-45 days (RCP4.5) or 30-55 days (RCP8.5) by the end of the century.

Milder winters with increased precipitation are expected to become more common in a future climate, and gradually the conditions for ground frost will change.

Most climate scenarios show some increase in wind speed across the parts of the Baltic that will become ice-free in a warmer climate. A warmer ocean surface and more water vapour in the atmosphere contribute to the development of storms. This warming also leads to reduced differences between warm and cold air masses, which play an important role in the development of intense storms. This may counteract the amplifying effect that warming has on storm development.

Several of the risk factors for wildfire are expected to change, and the size and number of forest fires can be expected to increase. The length of the fire risk season is increasing, especially in the south. The biggest change is an earlier start to the season. The frequency and length of high-risk periods is also increasing. The most extreme fire risk conditions are expected to be found on the islands of Öland and Gotland.
Vulnerability
not applicable
There is currently no up to date assessment of this.
Risk Future Impact
different rating of risks for different key hazards and/or under different climate scenarios
As the growing season is extended, forest growth will increase. With milder winters, deer species have an increased survival rate, leading to increased grazing of pine and leaf vegetation. Many vermin and some pathogenic fungi will gain better conditions and be able to spread. One way to address these problems would be to increase the diversity of tree species that are planted. Also, changed future climate conditions are being addressed in Swedish plant breeding programs. The spread of root rot is more likely when harvesting occurs during the growth season. We might see more storm damages in the future as water levels are higher during winter and ground frost is absent. The risk of forest fires and spring frosts increases and more forest roads that function during mild winters are needed. Better construction and maintenance of the forest roads will be central, as well as more respect for the environment, especially in humid environments and along creeks when driving on non-frozen woodland.
Impact/key hazard
mixed impacts for different hazards
Heatwaves are quite rare in Sweden compared with southern Europe. However, the optimal temperature varies between different countries and since our population is adapted to a cooler climate a temperature increase will affect health. Recent research has shown that warm periods lead to both increased mortality and morbidity in Sweden.
Key hazard likelihood
different likelihood of their occurrence and exposure for different key hazards and/or climate scenarios
Regional climate scenarios show that the annual mean temperature will increase by 2 to 7 °C by 2071–2100 compared to 1961–1990. The greatest increase (2-9°C) is expected during the winter. The changes have significant regional differences, with the biggest effect in the north of Sweden.

Extreme heat events, which now occur every 20 years on average, may occur every three to five years by the end of the century. Temperatures of 40°C may occur every 20 years in the south.

Milder winters with increased precipitation are expected to become more common in a future climate, and gradually the conditions for ground frost will change.
Vulnerability
not applicable
There is currently no up to date assessment of this.
Risk Future Impact
different rating of risks for different key hazards and/or under different climate scenarios
Climate change impacts human health. A reduction in the number of extremely cold winter days will have a positive effect in terms of reduced mortality and fewer illnesses caused by cardiovascular diseases. On the other hand, more frequent heatwaves will increase the number of deaths in summer time. The high-risk groups include people suffering from cardiovascular and respiratory diseases. Young children and the elderly are also at risk. Air pollution further exacerbates the health risks posed by high temperatures. The risk of water borne infections increases during warm summers, when more people are outdoors swimming more frequently. Wound infections caused by vibrio bacteria in water represent a new problem that emerged in the area around the Baltic Sea in the 2000s. These bacteria increase in number in higher water temperatures. Higher water temperatures also increase the risk of toxic algal blooms and the growth of gastro-intestinal bacteria. The length and climate of the seasons will change dramatically. This affects both pollen-producing species and the risk of vector-borne diseases, where the infectious agent is transmitted by for example mosquitoes and ticks. The high-risk season for Lyme disease and TBE may increase by up to four months by the end of the century. A changed climate may contribute to the survival of new disease-carrying insects and pathogens. There may also be an increase in the spread of zoonotic diseases
Impact/key hazard
not applicable
There is currently no up to date assessment of this.
Key hazard likelihood
different likelihood of their occurrence and exposure for different key hazards and/or climate scenarios
Regional climate scenarios show that the annual mean temperature will increase by 2 to 7 °C by 2071–2100 compared to 1961–1990. The greatest increase (2-9°C) is expected during the winter. The changes have significant regional differences, with the biggest effect in the north of Sweden.

In much of Sweden, the rising sea level is countered by land uplift. It is greatest in northern Sweden on the Bothnian Bay coast and practically zero in Skåne.

In the summer the intensity of heavy rainfall is estimated to increase by 10–15% by 2071–2100, compared to 1961–1990. The rain intensity of a 10-year rain is expected to rise by about 10%. The expected return period of a 20-year rain will drop down to 6–10 years during the summer and 2–4 years for the winter in Sweden.

The main areas that face an increased risk of landslides in a changing climate can be found in the western and southern parts, as well as areas along the east coast. The risk of ravines developing might increase in parts of south-western and central Sweden, as well as parts of the northern areas. An increased risk of moraine landslides and mudslides is also expected in central areas. The Göta River valley is one of Sweden’s most susceptible valleys in terms of landslides. There is also contaminated land around the river. Areas with a high risk of landslides are expected to increase by around 10 percent by 2100 compared with current figures if no measures are taken.

Flooding may become more common in the south as a consequence of rising sea levels. The impact on lakes and watercourses varies across the country; in some areas the risk of flooding will increase, in others it will decrease. Increased risk of heavy rainfall may increase the risk of pluvial flooding.

Changing precipitation patterns and groundwater conditions may lead to subsidence or landslides.
Vulnerability
not applicable
There is currently no up to date assessment of this.
Risk Future Impact
different rating of risks for different key hazards and/or under different climate scenarios
Spatial planning provides opportunities for long-term and preventive climate adaptation work for future buildings and infrastructure. Waterfront buildings and areas that are already often exposed to floods are especially vulnerable to the effects of climate change. This applies both along lakes and rivers and in coastal areas. Problems related to flooding or landslides may increase as precipitation is expected to become more intense and frequent in the future and as a result of rising sea levels. Housing areas are also affected more directly, for example, by changed snow and wind loads. A warmer and damper climate increases the risk of problems with humidity and mould. The heating demand decreases, while the need for cooling increases. Historical locales represent irreplaceable values. Many environments and old cities of great cultural value are located in coastal areas, where they are vulnerable to rising sea levels and extreme weather.
Impact/key hazard
not applicable
There is currently no up to date assessment of this.
Key hazard likelihood
different likelihood of their occurrence and exposure for different key hazards and/or climate scenarios
As the climate changes, the oceans will become warmer. The increasing levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere will also result in the acidification of the oceans. This will have consequences for the ecosystems, fish stocks and the fishing industries. It is not yet established how the Baltic Sea will be affected.

In a future warmer climate, ice winters on Swedish lakes and the Baltic Sea are expected to be both shorter and milder. The duration of the ice winter will become shorter, and the extent of the ice is reducing. These changes are greatest in the south, while the Bothnian Bay and the Bothnian Sea are the least affected. Since the variations from year to year will also be great in the future, there may be harsh ice winters, even if these are fewer in number.

Extreme heat events, which now occur every 20 years on average, may occur every three to five years by the end of the century. Temperatures of 40°C may occur every 20 years in the south.

Most climate scenarios show some increase in wind speed across the parts of the Baltic that will become ice-free in a warmer climate, including the Gulf of Finland, the Gulf of Bothnia and the Bothnian Sea. A warmer ocean surface and more water vapour in the atmosphere contribute to the development of storms. At the same time this warming leads to reduced differences between warm and cold air masses, which play an important role in the development of intense storms. This may in turn counteract the amplifying effect that warming has on storm development.

Flooding may become more common in the south as a consequence of rising sea levels. The impact on lakes and watercourses varies across the country; in some areas the risk of flooding will increase, in others it will decrease. Increased risk of heavy rainfall may increase the risk of pluvial flooding.
Vulnerability
not applicable
There is currently no up to date assessment of this.
Risk Future Impact
different rating of risks for different key hazards and/or under different climate scenarios
As the climate changes, the oceans will become warmer. The increasing levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere will also result in the acidification of the oceans. This will have consequences for the ecosystems, fish stocks and the fishing industries. Higher water temperatures increase the pressures on marine ecosystems. The ecosystems in inland lakes will also be affected.

The oceans closer to the world’s polar regions will experience greater impact and warming than those further away from the poles. The Baltic Sea is a unique inland sea with brackish water, which is already particularly exposed to environmental disruption. Apart from rising water temperatures, a changing climate may also result in lower levels of salinity in the Baltic Sea.

Certain species of fish may benefit from warmer water, although it will have a detrimental effect on other species. Species that depend on colder surroundings are particularly sensitive to rising temperatures.

Increasing acidification will mean that certain sea creatures (such as oysters and mussels) will find it more difficult to grow their protective shells and skeletons. The continued acidification of the seas could lead to mass extinction of shell-forming organisms.
Impact/key hazard
not applicable
There is currently no up to date assessment of this.
Key hazard likelihood
different likelihood of their occurrence and exposure for different key hazards and/or climate scenarios
Milder winters with increased precipitation are expected to become more common in a future climate, and gradually the conditions for ground frost will change.

In the summer the intensity of heavy rainfall is estimated to increase by 10–15% by 2071–2100, compared to 1961–1990. The rain intensity of a 10-year rain is expected to rise by about 10%. The expected return period of a 20-year rain will drop down to 6–10 years during the summer and 2–4 years for the winter in Sweden.

The main areas that face an increased risk of landslides in a changing climate can be found in the western and southern parts, as well as areas along the east coast. The risk of ravines developing might increase in parts of south-western and central Sweden, as well as parts of the northern areas. An increased risk of moraine landslides and mudslides is also expected in central areas. The Göta River valley is one of Sweden’s most susceptible valleys in terms of landslides. There is also contaminated land around the river. Areas with a high risk of landslides are expected to increase by around 10 percent by 2100 compared with current figures if no measures are taken.

Several of the risk factors for wildfire are expected to change, and the size and number of forest fires can be expected to increase. The length of the fire risk season is increasing, especially in the south. The biggest change is an earlier start to the season. The frequency and length of high-risk periods is also increasing. The most extreme fire risk conditions are expected to be found on the islands of Öland and Gotland.

Flooding may become more common in the south as a consequence of rising sea levels. The impact on lakes and watercourses varies across the country; in some areas the risk of flooding will increase, in others it will decrease. Increased risk of heavy rainfall may increase the risk of pluvial flooding.

Changing precipitation patterns and groundwater conditions may lead to subsidence or landslides.
Vulnerability
not applicable
There is currently no up to date assessment of this.
Risk Future Impact
different rating of risks for different key hazards and/or under different climate scenarios
Adapting the cultural heritage to climate change involves measures to prevent or mitigate damage caused by climate change. The degradation processes for most materials are affected by temperature and humidity. Higher temperature speeds up chemical reactions and changes, and variations in humidity affect the degradation of most materials. Climate change risks can be both immediate and clearly
visible, such as floods, but also slow and difficult to identify, such as mould, pests and overgrowth. The slow effects require systematic monitoring in order to be detected in time. Adaptation activities can also cause damage to cultural heritage sites, for example the construction of erosion protection close to archaeological sites. Many of the risks posed by a changing climate on cultural heritage can already be seen today, but could become more common or have greater consequences in the future. Moreover, they interact with each other. Prevention measures such as risk analysis, surveillance and maintenance are essential to prevent and mitigate damage to cultural heritage.
Impact/key hazard
not applicable
There is currently no up to date assessment of this.
Key hazard likelihood
different likelihood of their occurrence and exposure for different key hazards and/or climate scenarios
Regional climate scenarios show that the annual mean temperature will increase by 2 to 7 °C by 2071–2100 compared to 1961–1990. The greatest increase (2-9°C) is expected during the winter. The changes have significant regional differences, with the biggest effect in the north of Sweden.

The snow season will become shorter and the maximum snow cover less thick.

Extreme heat events, which now occur every 20 years on average, may occur every three to five years by the end of the century. Temperatures of 40°C may occur every 20 years in the south.

Milder winters with increased precipitation are expected to become more common in a future climate, and gradually the conditions for ground frost will change.
Vulnerability
not applicable
There is currently no up to date assessment of this.
Risk Future Impact
different rating of risks for different key hazards and/or under different climate scenarios
Sudden weather changes, shifting of the seasons, changes in vegetation and increased unpredictability are some of the effects of climate change. These effects pose major challenges for reindeer herding, both now and in the future. The risks are most apparent in the winter and are not solely linked to a slow warming but also to extreme weather events. Climate change means that reindeer herders need to have
greater flexibility and access to several different types of 91 pastures. The times for moving the herd and for slaughter may also need to change. In order to meet the climate challenge, enhanced possibilities for action in other areas are required, such as influence over competing land use and issues regarding predatory animals. The indirect adaption and improved opportunities for collaboration with other stakeholders
will be a key issue for the reindeer industry.
Impact/key hazard
not applicable
There is currently no up to date assessment of this.
Key hazard likelihood
different likelihood of their occurrence and exposure for different key hazards and/or climate scenarios
Regional climate scenarios show that the annual mean temperature will increase by 2 to 7 °C by 2071–2100 compared to 1961–1990. The greatest increase (2-9°C) is expected during the winter. The changes have significant regional differences, with the biggest effect in the north of Sweden.

As an effect of higher sea levels, coastal erosion will increase along the country’s coast, primarily in southern Sweden. It is primarily along sandy coasts that erosion will increase. Frequent sand erosion takes place, for example, along the coast of Skåne, where the coastline has moved over 150 m inland over the last 30 years in some places. Increased runoff and flows can lead to increased erosion in watercourses, both on streambeds and in the riparian zone.

Availability and quality of water is expected to decrease in large parts of southern Sweden, due to higher temperatures and a longer growing season. The risk of infiltration by saltwater is increasing in coastal and low-lying areas, such as around Lake Mälaren and on Gotland. This, together with more heavy rains, increases the risk of pollution of water catchment areas.

Extreme heat events, which now occur every 20 years on average, may occur every three to five years by the end of the century. Temperatures of 40°C may occur every 20 years in the south.

Incidents of dry conditions are expected to increase, in southern Sweden from 0-20 days per year during the period 1963-1992 to 20-45 days (RCP4.5) or 30-55 days (RCP8.5) by the end of the century.

Milder winters with increased precipitation are expected to become more common in a future climate, and gradually the conditions for ground frost will change.

With increasing temperatures, especially during the winter, the snow cover duration is expected to decrease. This may reduce the extent of spring floods, but increase water flows during the winter.
Vulnerability
not applicable
There is currently no up to date assessment of this.
Risk Future Impact
different rating of risks for different key hazards and/or under different climate scenarios
It is expected that both national and international tourism will increase in Sweden. The coastal areas are important both for tourists and for the recreation of the local population. The most important resources are the beaches and the water. In the north of the country, winter tourism is also very important, as are opportunities for hunting and fishing. The tourism industry could benefit from a changing climate with warmer summers. Winters with less snow cover are already affecting the ski resorts, which are becoming more dependent on making artificial snow to aid the winter tourist season. Tourism around the Mediterranean may decrease due to warmer summers. The strong warming expected in the Alps may also lead to decreased tourism in that area. This could bring more tourism to Scandinavia. Increased tourism requires resilient infrastructure. It also means more pressure on the environment in popular areas, and access to good-quality water resources will become a key issue.
Impact/key hazard
not applicable
There is currently no up to date assessment of this.
Key hazard likelihood
different likelihood of their occurrence and exposure for different key hazards and/or climate scenarios
In a future warmer climate, ice winters on Swedish lakes and the Baltic Sea are expected to be both shorter and milder. The duration of the ice winter will become shorter, and the extent of the ice is reducing. These changes are greatest in the south, while the Bothnian Bay and the Bothnian Sea are the least affected. Since the variations from year to year will also be great in the future, there may be harsh ice winters, even if these are fewer in number.

Extreme heat events, which now occur every 20 years on average, may occur every three to five years by the end of the century. Temperatures of 40°C may occur every 20 years in the south.

Milder winters with increased precipitation are expected to become more common in a future climate, and gradually the conditions for ground frost will change.

In the summer the intensity of heavy rainfall is estimated to increase by 10–15% by 2071–2100, compared to 1961–1990. The rain intensity of a 10-year rain is expected to rise by about 10%. The expected return period of a 20-year rain will drop down to 6–10 years during the summer and 2–4 years for the winter in Sweden.

The main areas that face an increased risk of landslides in a changing climate can be found in the western and southern parts, as well as areas along the east coast. The risk of ravines developing might increase in parts of south-western and central Sweden, as well as parts of the northern areas. An increased risk of moraine landslides and mudslides is also expected in central areas. The Göta River valley is one of Sweden’s most susceptible valleys in terms of landslides. There is also contaminated land around the river.

Flooding may become more common in the south as a consequence of rising sea levels. The impact on lakes and watercourses varies across the country; in some areas the risk of flooding will increase, in others it will decrease. Increased risk of heavy rainfall may increase the risk of pluvial flooding.
Vulnerability
not applicable
There is currently no up to date assessment of this.
Risk Future Impact
different rating of risks for different key hazards and/or under different climate scenarios
Transport on roads and railways is likely to increase in the future, which places demands on a robust infrastructure. At the same time, changes in the climate increase the risk for cloudburst, flooding and landslides, affecting roads and railways. This may lead to an increase in accidents. Falling trees can also cause traffic obstructions. Changes in groundwater levels may affect drainage and buoyancy. Low bridges may need to be rebuilt higher. Warmer winters will decrease the need for salting the roads, and probably for clearing them of snow. There may be more zero crossings in the north and central parts of the country, leading to increased risks for difficult driving conditions and damage to roads and other infrastructure. Long periods of warm weather affect the railroads negatively. The railway lines and various other components can expand in the heat and cause disruptions in traffic.

Aviation is not affected by climate change to a great degree. Changes in ground frost and groundwater could affect the buoyancy of the airfield, and increased precipitation could put an increased strain on airports’ stormwater systems. Heat may affect the surfacing of the runways. The need for de-icing may decrease in the south of Sweden but increase in the north, as winter days become less cold and increasingly damp.

Shipping in Swedish waters is not affected by climate change to a great degree. Quays in the south of Sweden may need to be adjusted to higher water levels. Increased water flows could bring difficulties through an increased risk for erosion and landslides in narrow passages, such as canals. The risk of landslides is high along the Göta älv, which is an important shipping route in the west of Sweden, and shipping may be affected. Less ice cover and a shorter ice season are positive for shipping
Impact/key hazard
not applicable
There is currently no up to date assessment of this.
Key hazard likelihood
different likelihood of their occurrence and exposure for different key hazards and/or climate scenarios
Precipitation is expected to increase by 0–40% over the next century, mainly in winter. During the summer, precipitation in the south is expected to decrease, while changes for the northern part of the country may be small. The snow season will become shorter and the maximum snow cover less thick.

The risk of infiltration by saltwater is increasing in water sources in coastal and low-lying areas, such as around Lake Mälaren and on Gotland. This, together with more heavy rains, increases the risk of pollution of water catchment areas.

Availability and quality of water is expected to decrease in large parts of southern Sweden, due to higher temperatures and a longer growing season. The risk of infiltration by saltwater is increasing in coastal and low-lying areas, such as around Lake Mälaren and on Gotland. This, together with more heavy rains, increases the risk of pollution of water catchment areas.

Extreme heat events, which now occur every 20 years on average, may occur every three to five years by the end of the century. Temperatures of 40°C may occur every 20 years in the south.

Incidents of dry conditions are expected to increase, in southern Sweden from 0-20 days per year during the period 1963-1992 to 20-45 days (RCP4.5) or 30-55 days (RCP8.5) by the end of the century.

In the summer the intensity of heavy rainfall is estimated to increase by 10–15% by 2071–2100, compared to 1961–1990. The rain intensity of a 10-year rain is expected to rise by about 10%. The expected return period of a 20-year rain will drop down to 6–10 years during the summer and 2–4 years for the winter in Sweden.

Flooding may become more common in the south as a consequence of rising sea levels. The impact on lakes and watercourses varies across the country; in some areas the risk of flooding will increase, in others it will decrease. Increased risk of heavy rainfall may increase the risk of pluvial flooding.
Vulnerability
not applicable
There is currently no up to date assessment of this.
Risk Future Impact
different rating of risks for different key hazards and/or under different climate scenarios
Water drainage systems will be affected by increased intensity of rainfall as well as increased levels in seas, waterways and lakes. In recent years, several incidents with extreme rains and flooding in cities have focused attention on urban water management. It is expected that climate change will bring with it more rain and more intense rainfall. This adds extra stress to the systems. To adapt, green and blue infrastructure is necessary. Green infrastructure includes parks, gardens and green roofs. Blue infrastructure includes waterways, wetlands and sustainable drainage systems. Stormwater management requires collaboration across several sectors, since there is not one stakeholder responsible for the entire issue.

Climate change is already having an impact on the conditions for a secure supply of drinking water, with increased average temperatures, greater volumes of precipitation, altered drainage patterns, evaporation and groundwater formation all creating new challenges. Extreme weather events such as heatwaves, droughts, torrential rain, storms, high rivers and floods can, as with sea level rises, lead to quantitative and qualitative changes to raw water resources. Other effects that may arise in some places are a lack of water and salt water ingress in water sources used for drinking water. The availability and quality of both groundwater and surface water might be affected. Surface water resources are more exposed than groundwater resources to a range of risk factors and are therefore more vulnerable to increases in temperature, intensity of precipitation and pollution. Even with the current climate, parts of the country sometimes experience low water flow rates and water shortages. In the future, it is expected that low flow rates will occur more often in southern Sweden, primarily in the east. This may lead to drinking water shortages.

Overview of institutional arrangements and governance at the national level

The first vulnerability assessment of climate change impacts in Sweden resulted in a report to the Government in 2007 (Sweden facing climate change – threats and opportunities; SOU 2007:60). The report covered the Swedish society's vulnerability to global climate change, and regional and local impacts of these changes and an assessment of the damage costs climate change may give rise to. The report ‘Climate Change Adaptation in Sweden – an overview' compiles the agency assignments proposed for climate adaptation in 2007. An up-to-date assessment has been reported to the Government on 4 March 2015.

As part of the implementation of the Ordinance on adaptation that entered into force in January 2019, 32 national authorities and all 21 regional County Administrative Boards should carry out systematic climate and vulnerability assessments, which should be updated in the event of substantial changes in operations, and at least every five years. SMHI has developed guidelines for the work.
The national strategy for climate change adaptation includes Sweden’s climate change adaptation goals, guiding principles, organisation and distribution of responsibilities, monitoring, financing principles and knowledge-boosting initiatives.

There is a five-year evaluation-cycle for the National Adaptation Strategy. The first step will be a vulnerability analysis, monitoring and evaluation of the implementation of the strategy, and proposals for revisions of the strategy, followed by an updated strategy in 2023. The Government has established an Expert Council on Adaptation at the SMHI as proposed in the Strategy. The Council is tasked with evaluating adaptation progress for this revision.

The Government’s Ordinance on Agencies’ Climate Change Adaptation entered into force in 2019 and regulates the work of 32 agencies and all county administrative boards in connection with climate change adaptation. Within their own areas of responsibility and within the framework of their assignments, the agencies shall initiate, support and evaluate the work involved in climate change adaptation. For instance, they shall draw up action plans for their climate change adaptation work. Each year, the agencies shall also report on their work to the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), which according to the ordinance shall analyse these reports, submit a summary analysis to the Government and support the agencies in their work with the ordinance.

The Government has also specifically tasked the National Board of Housing, Building and Planning with coordinating the national climate change adaptation work for the built environment.

The Swedish National Knowledge Centre for Climate Change Adaptation is also run on behalf of the government at SMHI. The role of the centre is to act as a hub for knowledge about climate change and to be a meeting place for actors involved in climate change adaptation. The centre operates the online portal Klimatanpassning.se and arranges different types of training opportunities.
In 2020, a proposal for a system for evaluation and monitoring of the work on adaptation in Sweden was developed by SMHI. Existing systems for monitoring of related areas were considered, mainly the Swedish environmental quality targets, The Global Sustainability Goals and the Sendai Framework for disaster risk reduction. Relevant indicators from these have been included in the proposal. The work to reach the Swedish Environmental targets is evaluated regularly, and in 2019 the evaluation included a description of how climate change will affect the possibility of reaching the targets.
All national authorities, municipalities and regions are legally required to carry out a risk and vulnerability analysis for their area of responsibility. This includes climate related risks. In addition, municipalities are required to adopt action plans for preventing accidents and for rescue services. The risk analysis behind this work includes climate related risks. Risk management plans for flooding are developed for areas that are considered to have a significant risk of flooding. These plans consider climate change.

When developing climate and vulnerability analyses and adaptation action plans, the effect of climate change on the entire area of responsibility should be considered, including the management of disaster risk.
Scenarios and indices on climate change in Sweden are readily available. SMHI presents climate information in the form of maps, diagrams and downloadable data, free of charge. Information is also available explaining the results, including uncertainties. The site also contains guidance that provides support for interpreting and using climate scenarios. The information is based on the latest generation of global climate models, scaled down to the regional level. In 2015 a series of reports were produced to provide relevant and useful information for decision makers at the regional and local levels. Many national and regional authorities hold and provide data and information that is useful for adaptation, available free of charge.

Overview of institutional arrangements and governance at the sub-national level (where “sub-national” refers to local and regional)

There are a number of networks in Sweden that work with various issues involving climate change adaptation. Drinking water, dam safety, landslides and coastal erosion are just a few examples of operational areas.

The National Network for Adaptation consists of a number of agencies with sectoral responsibility for the adaptation of society to the current and future climate, together with 21 county administrative boards with responsibility for coordinating climate change adaptation work at regional level. The Swedish Association of Local Authorities and Regions (SKR) is also a member of the network. The agencies of the network work together to strengthen society’s ability to deal with the positive and negative effects of climate change.
The county administrative boards (CABs) work closely together, and are part of the National Network for Adaptation. The CABs in Skåne and Halland, the Swedish Geotechnical Institute (SGI) and the Geological Survey of Sweden (SGU) have formed Regional Coastal Cooperation in Skåne/Halland to work together with coastal municipalities in Skåne and Halland, other agencies and regional players to counter the problems of coastal erosion and rising sea levels.

The Swedish Association of Local Authorities and Regions (SKR) monitors and supports the municipalities’ climate change adaptation work. SKR also manages an online network for dialogue and sharing experiences in connection with climate change adaptation issues.
The NAS states that adaptation measures should be taken within several sectors and geographic areas. Seven priority areas are identified based on the predicted consequences for society:
• Landslides and erosion that threaten communities, infrastructure and businesses
• Flooding that threatens communities, infrastructure and businesses
• High temperatures that involve risks for the health and wellbeing of people and animals
• Water supply shortages for individuals, agriculture and industry
• Biological and ecological effects that affect sustainable development
• The impact on domestic and international food production and commerce
• Increased incidence of pests, diseases and invasive non-native species that affect people, animals and plants.
Challenges are identified in the ECs evaluation of Sweden’s work in 2015, SMHI’s Control Station 2015 report and in the Climate Change Adaptation Inquiry. They include a lack of national steering, with the relevant agencies lacking a clear mandate. There are also shortcomings in the cooperation between sectors and across administrative boundaries. In addition, there was no clear structure for monitoring and evaluating climate change adaptation work. One reason why the work at local level has not progressed enough is thought to be a lack of clarity of responsibility and in financial support. Since the reports, the Adaptation Ordinance has given authorities a clear mandate, and a system for monitoring and evaluation has been developed.
In the National adaptation strategy, adopted in 2018 (Govt Bill 2017/18:163), the Government sets out that the objectives for adaptation to a changed climate are to develop a society that is sustainable and robust in the long term, and that actively deals with climate change by reducing vulnerabilities and taking advantage of opportunities. The climate change adaptation goals in the Paris Agreement and Agenda 2030 and the Sustainable Development Goals should also be achieved. These goals should be taken into consideration in policies, strategies and planning at national level, and should be integrated into ordinary operations and responsibilities. Additional needs for goals or for clarification of the Government’s climate change adaptation objectives for different policy areas, sectors or identified vulnerabilities should be analysed.

Furthermore, climate change adaptation work should be carried out on the basis of guiding principles on sustainable development, mutuality, a scientific basis, the precautionary principle, integration of adaptation measures, flexibility, dealing with uncertainty and risk factors, a time perspective and transparency.

As an important part of the national strategy, the Government is establishing a five-year policy cycle with the following steps. • 2018: The Government presents a national strategy for climate change adaptation. • 2019–2022: The national expert council at SMHI is responsible for an updated climate and vulnerability analysis, and for monitoring and evaluating the climate change adaptation work carried out. A proposal for an updated strategy is being drawn up. • 2023: The Government presents an updated national strategy for climate change adaptation. An updated national strategy is then presented every five years.

The strategy also states that the main principle is that costs for protecting one’s own property are the responsibility of the owner of the property. The responsibility for preventing and repairing damage due to extreme weather events does not differ from the responsibility for other risk management in society. Incentives are thereby created to avoid developing in risky areas and to take suitable protective measures.

Climate change adaptation measures should be taken within several sectors of society and geographic areas. Based on the predicted consequences for society, the following areas are particularly important for ongoing climate change adaptation work:
• Landslides and erosion that threaten communities, infrastructure and businesses.
• Flooding that threatens communities, infrastructure and businesses.
• High temperatures that involve risks for the health and wellbeing of people and animals.
• Water supply shortages for individuals, agriculture and industry. • Biological and ecological effects that affect sustainable development.
• The impact on domestic and international food production and commerce.
• Increased incidence of pests, diseases and invasive non-native species that affect people, animals and plants.

Climate change adaptation involves planning for today’s situation and for a time horizon which stretches decades ahead into the next century. When making long-term investments within sectors that are deemed to be vulnerable and socially important, climate change adaptation is of great importance. This applies to investments in infrastructure, technical support systems, buildings and structures, for example, as well as within agriculture. An increase in the frequency of landslides and flooding is expected to have significant consequences for these sectors. It is therefore extremely important that the effects of a changed climate are taken into consideration in planning, maintaining and equipping existing buildings, facilities and systems, and when making new investments. It is of central importance in terms of socioeconomic effectiveness to do the right thing from the start, and to adapt new investments in line with a changed climate or to be prepared to adapt them in the future in a costeffective manner.

A national Expert Council on Adaptation has been formed, to provide an overall picture of society’s vulnerability to climate change and how climate change adaptation work is being developed in Sweden. The Council is linked to SMHI, but operates independently.
 

The Government has also specifically tasked the National Board of Housing, Building and Planning with coordinating the national climate change adaptation work for the built environment.

Selection of actions and (programmes of) measures

Not reported


At the regional administrative level in Sweden, it is mainly the 21 county administrative boards (CABS) but also the regions who work with climate change adaptation. The CABs have been tasked with coordinating climate change adaptation work regionally and ensuring that the national targets decided on by the Government are achieved. The starting point for the work of the CABs is the tasks detailed in the Government’s annual appropriation document. The CABs climate change adaptation work is also governed by the Ordinance (2018:1428) on Agencies’ Climate Change Adaptation.

Within their own areas of responsibility and within the framework of their assignments, the CABs shall initiate, support and evaluate the work involved in climate change adaptation. The Ordinance also includes a requirement to carry out a climate and vulnerability analysis, set targets for adaptation, draw up action plans and report on progress. In addition, the CABs must, within the remit of its mandate to coordinate regional climate adaptation work, also
 - initiate, support and follow up the climate adaptation work of the municipalities,
 - analyse how the county and, where necessary, neighbouring counties are affected by climate change,
  - support and follow up the climate adaptation work of regional sectoral agencies,
 - contribute to and produce documentation to improve knowledge and planning, and
- support the work of river coordination groups.

The climate and vulnerability analyses identify the priority areas for action within each county, and the action plans set out the actions that should be taken and when. The content and level of detail varies between the CABs.

The CABs play an important role in coordinating adaptation within the counties, and also across county borders. Since the effects of a changed climate often extend beyond county borders, this is a crucial aspect of climate change adaptation work. The CABs should work to ensure that actions taken in one municipality do not create problems in another. One area where this might be important is dealing with surface water, which often extends across large areas – sometimes several counties.

Another aspect of the CABs work involves providing the municipalities with data for their planning and project management work. The CABs have a right to review and scrutinise, and shall monitor municipal and state interests, public interests and the need for protection against accidents and human health in the municipality’s physical plans.

The county administrative boards also have a responsibility for coordinating regional emergency preparedness, and are the highest civilian defence authority within each county. This task includes providing information, building and maintaining networks, working to ensure effective use of resources, and compiling regional risk and vulnerability analyses. They should also ensure the uniform direction of crisis management preparations and monitor preparedness preparations.

The regions are responsible for sectors such as health and medical care, public transport and regional development, but they do not have any specific assignments linked to climate change adaptation. However, the regions’ assignments within regional growth work and Swedish emergency preparedness can be understood to include also responsibility for climate change adaptation.
The Government’s Ordinance on Agencies’ Climate Change Adaptation regulates the work of 32 agencies and all county administrative boards in connection with climate change adaptation. Within their own areas of responsibility and within the framework of their assignments, the agencies shall initiate, support and evaluate the work involved in climate change adaptation. For instance, they shall draw up action plans for their climate change adaptation work. Each year, the agencies shall also report on their work to the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), which according to the ordinance shall analyse these reports, submit a summary analysis to the Government and support the agencies in their work with the ordinance.

The ordinance, and the sectoral action plans that it decrees, ensures that adaptation is integrated into the work of sectoral national authorities. This includes the work of the Civil Contingency Agency.

All national authorities, municipalities and regions are legally required to carry out a risk and vulnerability analysis for their area of responsibility. This includes climate related risks. In addition, municipalities are required to adopt action plans for preventing accidents and for rescue services. The risk analysis behind this work includes climate related risks. Risk management plans for flooding are developed for areas that are considered to have a significant risk of flooding. These plans consider climate change.

When developing climate and vulnerability analyses and adaptation action plans, the effect of climate change on the entire area of responsibility should be considered, including the management of disaster risk.
The priority areas for adaptation in the National strategy have been identified based on their impact on society, including the effects on vulnerable groups.

Heatwaves have been identified as one of the climate change effects that affect vulnerable groups particularly hard. As heatwaves increase in both frequency and severity, people in risk groups will be exposed to an even greater danger. These risk groups include older people, disabled people, young children and pregnant women, and people with heart problems. Several adaptation initiatives have been put into place to engage with these stakeholders, for example the development of action plans to be implemented in the case of a heatwave, preparation of specific care measures such as changing the diet, spending less time in the sun, the increased intake of liquids and reduced physical activity. The municipality of Kristianstad in the south of Sweden has implemented several of these actions. The work is described in detail on the Case Study part of www.klimatanpassning.se.

Justice in adaptation is an evolving field. A pre-study was carried out by SMHI in 2020 with the aim to identify areas of action. The work continues during 2021.
Industry is involved in major projects, investigations and reports on adaptation. One example is the development of a proposal for a system for the evaluation and monitoring of the adaptation work in Sweden, where the insurance industry played an active part. The report Kontrollstation 2015, which did a stock take on the state of adaptation work in Sweden and suggested ways forward, used industry dialogues as part of the process.

Within the different sectors, there are numerous networks which bring together different actors, including industry organisations.

In addition, a number of climate change adaptation initiatives are being carried out within Swedish industry. These often include collaboration between authorities, academia, industry and organisations. For example:

A changing climate for business

At Krinova Incubator & Science Park, businesses, organisations, academia and society work together to lay the foundations for innovation and development. Here, the “A changing climate for business” project has developed a method for describing the direct and indirect positive and negative economic consequences of climate change for Swedish industry. The method has been applied to specific businesses, particularly within Skåne’s food industries.

The Swedish Property Federation

The Swedish Property Federation is an industry organisation that works for a sustainable and effective property market. The federation represents just over 17,000 members who own commercial and residential buildings, industrial properties and housing cooperatives. It has produced a publication containing tips and advice on how property owners can adapt their properties in view of climate change.

Swedish Water

Swedish Water is the industry organisation for water service companies in Sweden. Climate change adaptation is a central theme within the organisation’s operations, and it has employees who work specifically with issues relating to pipe networks and the climate. Swedish Water also arranges an annual conference on pipe networks and the climate. It has produced a large number of publications on the theme of surface water management and climate change adaptation.

Insurance Sweden

The industry organisation Insurance Sweden is actively involved in the debate on society’s climate change adaptation, and has produced publications including “Vem tar ansvar för klimatanpassningen? – klimatanpassning ur ett försäkringsperspektiv” (“Who takes responsibility for climate change adaptation? – Climate change adaptation from an insurance perspective”, 2015) and “Vem tar ansvar för klimatanpassningen? – En översikt ur ett försäkringsperspektiv” (“Who takes responsibility for climate change adaptation? – An overview from an insurance perspective”).

The Gradvis project

The Gradvis project has been funded by the Federation of Swedish Farmers (LRF), Länsförsäkringar Halland and the EU’s Rural Development Programme for Sweden. The project brings together information about how Swedish agriculture may be affected by a changed climate. The project is being run by the Rural Economy and Agricultural Societies.
An assessment report on the Swedish climate change adaptation strategy and the actions taken since 2007 was submitted to the Government in March 2015.

The Government’s Ordinance on Agencies’ Climate Change Adaptation regulates the work of 32 agencies and all county administrative boards in connection with climate change adaptation. Within their own areas of responsibility and within the framework of their assignments, the agencies shall initiate, support and evaluate the work involved in climate change adaptation.

Each year, the agencies report on their work to SMHI, who analyses the reports and submits a summary analysis to the Government. The reporting is done in a webbased system (KLIRA). The purpose of the reporting is to answer the following questions: 1) How have the authorities covered by the Ordinance carried out the tasks in the Ordinance? 2) To what degree do the authorities work according to the priorities and principles set out in the National Adaptation Strategy? 3) What risks, opportunities and actions have the authorities identified and prioritised? 4) What obstacles and needs have the authorities identified in their work on adaptation?

In the longer term, the purpose of the reporting and the analysis is to monitor how the work of the authorities contribute to making Sweden more resilient to the effects of climate change. An important added value of the reporting is that it results in a searchable database, which facilitates collaboration and learning.

The National expert council also play a role in the evaluation. They are tasked to submit a report to Government every five years, as support for the revision of the National Adaptation Strategy. This report shall include suggestions for the direction of the national work on adaptation; a prioritisation of adaptation action, based on an assessment of risk, cost and benefits; a concluding analysis of the effects of climate change on society; monitoring and evaluation of the national work on adaptation. The annual reports of the authorities and SMHI’s analysis of these forms an important base for the Expert council’s report. The first report of the Expert council should be submitted in December 2021.

In 2020, SMHI submitted a proposal for a system for evaluation and monitoring of the adaptation work in Sweden to the Government. The aim of such a system is to answer the following questions: 1) Is vulnerability to climate change decreasing? and 2) Has the National Adaptation Strategy been implemented? The systems already in place for monitoring and evaluation, as described above, form an important part of such a system. The proposal is now being considered by the Government.
Every year, the national and regional agencies report on their work to SMHI, who analyses the reports and submits a summary analysis to the Government. The reporting is done in a webbased system (KLIRA). The purpose of the reporting is to answer the following questions:
1) How have the authorities covered by the Ordinance carried out the tasks in the Ordinance? 2) To what degree do the authorities work according to the priorities and principles set out in the National Adaptation Strategy? 3) What risks, opportunities and actions have the authorities identified and prioritised? 4) What obstacles and needs have the authorities identified in their work on adaptation?

In the longer term, the purpose of the reporting and the analysis is to monitor how the work of the authorities contribute to making Sweden more resilient to the effects of climate change.

The National expert council are tasked to submit a report to Government every five years, as support for the revision of the National Adaptation Strategy. This report shall include suggestions for the direction of the national work on adaptation; a prioritisation of adaptation action, based on an assessment of risk, cost and benefits; a concluding analysis of the effects of climate change on society; monitoring and evaluation of the national work on adaptation.

In 2020, SMHI submitted a proposal for a system for evaluation and monitoring of the adaptation work in Sweden to the Government. The aim of such a system is to answer the following questions: 1) Is vulnerability to climate change decreasing? and 2) Has the National Adaptation Strategy been implemented? The systems already in place for monitoring and evaluation, as described above, form an important part of such a system. The proposal is now being considered by the Government.
The implementation of the NAS from 2018 and of the various sectoral and regional plans is ongoing. This is partly monitored through the annual analyses of the work of national authorities. The first such report was submitted in April 2020, and shows that implementation is well underway, but that work remains in many areas. The next annual report will be completed in April 2021.

A more comprehensive review of the national work, including state of play of measures planned in the NAS and in the sectoral and regional plans is currently being prepared by the National expert council, and will be completed by December 2021.
The main principle for adaptation finance is that the responsibility for preventing and repairing damage due to extreme weather events does not differ from the responsibility for other risk management, and therefore lies with the owner of the property.

Municipalities can apply for funding from appropriation 2.2 Preventive measures against landslides and other natural accidents (SEK 25m in 2021). With this fund, municipalities can implement concrete measures to protect against landslides and flooding.

In the 2018 Budget Bill, the Government announced a specific initiative for co-financing landslide mitigation measures along the Göta River (SEK 215m in 2021). The risks of landslides along the river are already high in today’s climate, but increased precipitation and increased drainage will make the risks considerably higher. In addition, municipalities can include adaptation measures in other forms of government grant such as the greener cities grant.

Through appropriation 1:10 Climate Change Adaptation, preventive and knowledge-enhancing initiatives are funded (SEK 78m in 2021). For example, a focus on landslide, flooding and erosion mapping by the Swedish Geotechnical Institute and the Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency and on knowledge-enhancing initiatives by SMHI.

Adaptation should be integrated into relevant activities and sectors, and spending on increased resilience in project and sectors is not specified.
As adaptation should be integrated into all relevant activities and sectors, there is no information on the share of spending used to support adaptation within specific projects or sectors. Some sectoral adaptation plans include financing of measures, others do not.
Sweden is facing climate risks such as flooding, landslides, erosion, storm damage, drinking water contamination, heatwaves, drought, spread of diseases and challenges for reindeer herding. Climate adaptation initiatives in Sweden have advanced significantly in recent years to address future threats. There is a positive trend regarding municipal climate adaptation work. However, the progress of the municipalities varies widely. Large municipalities have generally made more progress compared to small and medium-sized municipalities, and coastal municipalities have gradually established their climate adaptation work compared with inland municipalities.

SMHI has analysed a number of cases of adaptation action in order to quantify the costs and benefits. For example, in one case study the analysis shows that installing a new filter in a water treatment facility in Gothenburg, at a cost of approximately €40 million, will deliver benefits worth over €250 million in the form of reduced economic losses due to sickness. The measure affects around half a million people, and is partly financed through green bonds.

In the NAS, seven priority areas for adaptation were identified. Work carried out by authorities to address these is monitored annually, and an analysis is prepared by SMHI and submitted to Government. The first such report was submitted in April 2020, and the second is due in April 2021. The first report showed that work is being carried out in all priority areas, but no assessment as to the effects of this work on reducing impacts has so far been carried out. A proposal for a system for evaluating and monitoring adaptation work, including indicators for vulnerability, has been developed by SMHI and was presented to Government in December 2020.
According to the National Adaptation Strategy, adopted in 2018, the work to adapt society in line with a changed climate is continuing with regard to building up knowledge and disseminating information. The various decision-making and planning data that has been produced using government funding since the Climate and Vulnerability Inquiry in 2007 has contributed to increased knowledge about the risk of landslides and flooding, better management of the consequences of torrential rain and improved forecasting for the risk of fire. Many agencies have completed action plans for climate change adaptation in which the vulnerability of their own operations to climate change is analysed and the need for measures is identified. Intersectoral collaboration and support from the county administrative boards to municipalities and other players is also being improved. However, despite increased knowledge about the need to adapt to a changed climate, relatively few concrete climate change adaptation measures are being implemented at local level. Continued and reinforced initiatives and investments are required within many different areas. Since then, many of the actions suggested in the NAS have been implemented, or are underway, and an evaluation of this work is currently under preparation by the National expert council, to be published in December 2021.
In the NAS, seven priority areas for adaptation were identified. Work carried out by authorities to address these is monitored annually, and an analysis is prepared by SMHI and submitted to Government. The first such report was submitted in April 2020, and the second is due in April 2021. The first report showed that work is being carried out in all priority areas, but no assessment as to the effects of this work on reducing impacts has so far been carried out. A proposal for a system for evaluating and monitoring adaptation work, including indicators for vulnerability, has been developed by SMHI and was presented to Government in December 2020.

The National expert council are tasked to submit a report to Government every five years, as support for the revision of the National Adaptation Strategy. This report shall include suggestions for the direction of the national work on adaptation; a prioritisation of adaptation action, based on an assessment of risk, cost and benefits; a concluding analysis of the effects of climate change on society; monitoring and evaluation of the national work on adaptation. The annual reports of the authorities and SMHI’s analysis of these forms an important base for the Expert council’s report. The first report of the Expert council should be submitted in December 2021.
In 2015, SMHI carried out a mission (Kontrollstation 2015) to survey, analyse and follow-up on climate adaptation work in Sweden (SMHI KLIMATOLOGI Nr 12, 2015). This work identified that even though adaptation has advanced significantly in Sweden, there is still a considerable need for further measures. The report concludes that climate adaptation is best conducted in a long-term manner, that roles and responsibilities should be made more transparent, and that better coordination among the many actors involved in climate adaptation is necessary. The most important conclusions for continued work are:
? Laws and regulations need to be adapted; roles and responsibilities as well as strategies and goals should be made clearer.
? Priority and funding should be given to research and development measures that fill an identified knowledge-gap, including long-term monitoring.
? Knowledge and decision support as well as prognoses and warning systems should be more accessible.
? There is a need to outline how the costs of adaptation should be distributed among actors and how resources for prioritised measures can be guaranteed.

The Climate Change Adaptation Inquiry, completed in 2017 (SOU 2017:42) , identifies that the primary barrier to climate change adaptation of buildings is the lack of funding. For the municipalities, a lack of time, knowledge and funding for concrete measures is identified as a barrier to carrying out preventive measures.

The NAS from 2018 follows up on the proposals in the Kontrollstation 2015 and the Climate Change Adaptation Inquiry, and presents actions to address the identified barriers in order to strengthen climate change adaptation work and the national coordination of this work in the long term. Some of these actions have already been carried out, for example two changes to the Planning and Building Act (2010:900) with the aim of improving municipalities’ preparedness for climate change, which entered into force in August 2018. Other actions are underway. A first stock take on the implementation of the NAS as a whole is to be presented by the National Expert Council on Adaptation in December 2021.

As part of the annual reporting, national and regional authorities are asked to describe the barriers that they see to adaptation. The answers are analysed in SMHI's annual report to Government. The first such report, published in 2020 (SMHI KLIMATOLOGI Nr 54, 2020), finds that the identified barriers are connected to lack of resources, insufficient knowledge and decision support and insufficient or unclear legislation. The division of responsibility is seen as unclear, and there are issues around lack of power to make decisions and carry out actions. These conclusions are included in the considerations of the National Expert Council on Adaptation.
The first vulnerability assessment of climate change impacts in Sweden was initiated in 2005 and resulted in a report to the Government in 2007 (Sweden facing climate change – threats and opportunities; SOU 2007:60). The report covered the Swedish society's vulnerability to global climate change, and regional and local impacts of these changes and an assessment of the damage costs climate change may give rise to. An up-to-date assessment was carried out in the form of Kontrollstation 2015 (SMHI KLIMATOLOGI Nr 12, 2015).

The National Expert Council on Adaptation will submit an updated assessment in December 2021.
In the NAS from 2018, the Government states that the national strategy for climate change adaptation needs to be reviewed and updated at regular intervals, at least initially, to ensure that the system develops as intended. A policy cycle should include repeated monitoring and evaluation of climate change adaptation work, which then leads to a review of the national strategy for climate change adaptation. As an important part of the national strategy, the Government is therefore establishing a five-year policy cycle with the following steps.
• 2018: The Government presents a national strategy for climate change adaptation.
• 2019–2022: The national expert council at SMHI is responsible for an updated climate and vulnerability analysis, and for monitoring and evaluating the climate change adaptation work carried out. A proposal for an updated strategy is being drawn up.
• 2023: The Government presents an updated national strategy for climate change adaptation.

An updated national strategy is then presented every five years.
The Government’s Ordinance on Agencies’ Climate Change Adaptation regulates the work of 32 agencies and all county administrative boards in connection with climate change adaptation. Within their own areas of responsibility and within the framework of their assignments, the agencies shall initiate, support and evaluate the work involved in climate change adaptation. According to the Ordinance, the authorities shall complete risk and vulnerability assessments for their field of work, to be updated in the case of significant changes, or at least every five years. The authorities should also complete adaptation action plans, to be updated in the case of significant changes, or at least every five years.

Many authorities had already started their work on adaptation before the entry into force of the Ordinance, and have had action plans in place for many years. In most cases, these agencies have also updated their plans at least once. The same is true for the County Administrative Boards, who have had adaptation action plans in place for many years, and who have also updated them.

Good practices and lessons learnt

Not reported
Sweden supports international goals for adaptation. The Sustainable development goals (SDGs) and the Paris Agreement, together with the final document from the conference on financing sustainable development (the Addis Ababa Action Agenda) and the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030, form a global framework for long-term sustainable development.

Adaptation and climate resilient development is one of the main aims of the Paris Agreement. Agenda 2030 includes adaptation as an aspect in several of the 17 goals. One of the most important is goal 13: Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts. Adaptation is also part of Goal 11: Sustainable cities and communities, which involves adopting and implementing integrated policies and plans towards inclusion, resource efficiency, mitigation and adaptation to climate change, resilience to disasters, and developing and implementing, in line with the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030, holistic disaster risk management at all levels.

The Government’s adaptation work is carried out in line with the goals of Agenda 2030. The NAS integrates the goals of Agenda 2030 and the Sendai Framework through the definition of guiding principles of adaptation; sustainable development, mutuality, a scientific basis, the precautionary principle, integration of adaptation measures, flexibility, dealing with uncertainty and risk factors, a time perspective and transparency.

Within the framework of the Convention on Biological Diversity, guidance has been drawn up for the parties’ work with adaptation. It is also important to highlight the opportunities in nature-based solutions that can help to preserve and make sustainable use of biodiversity and ecosystem services, and to reduce the effects of climate change. Sweden has made active contributions the work with the voluntary guidelines, and will continue to work to find ways for achieving increased cooperation between the work for biodiversity and the climate.

As part of the EU’s Baltic Sea Strategy, which was adopted during Sweden’s Presidency of the EU in 2009, a proposed climate change adaptations strategy for the Baltic Sea Region has been drawn up within the BaltAdapt flagship project. Sweden was responsible for compiling the strategy via SMHI. Shared knowledge databases, cooperation on funding and cooperation within research and industry are some of the proposals presented by BaltAdapt.

In recent years, the Arctic Council’s Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP) working group has worked with adaptation and resilience. To meet the need for an overall perspective on the Arctic, Sweden initiated the Arctic Resilience Report, completed in 2016. The aim has been to integrate a resilience perspective into the Arctic Council’s work. A decision on a framework was taken at the meeting of foreign affairs ministers in May 2017.
Sweden collaborates within the framework of the Nordic Council of Ministers (NCM), an intergovernmental body between Sweden, Denmark, Finland, Norway and Iceland. The common Nordic research body, Nordforsk, supports research and cooperation in many areas relevant to adaptation.

Sweden participates in several collaborative projects and programs which improve the science behind adaptation, such as EC-Earth,a global climate model system developed through a collaboration, currently led by SMHI, between institutes and universities in Europe.

Sweden participates in the European Strategy Forum on Research Infrastructure (ESFRI), European Polar Board, European Incoherent Scatter Scientific Association – Tromsö (EISCAT) and several EU projects via various funders and providers. Furthermore, through its participation in the European Research Area networks ERA-NET, ERA-NET + and ERA-NET Cofund, Sweden contributes to strengthening European funding and cooperation in research and long-term development. Within the context of climate research, Sweden also participates in the Joint Programming Initiative JPI Climate, where Swedish funding agencies and researchers actively contribute to a common strategic research agenda. The Swedish research council Formas and the Swedish Research Council have funded Arctic climate research as well as social sciences and humanities research on climate change within the framework of JPI Climate.

Swedish researchers participate in many global research activities and organisations. Above all, in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). SMHI acts as the Swedish Focal Point. Sweden also participates in other organisations engaged in climate change issues, among them the World Climate Research Program (WCRP), International Council for Science (ICSU), International Arctic Science Committee (IASC), Science Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR), International Ocean Discovery/Drilling Program (IODP), Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF), and Future Earth. Within the Arctic Council, Sweden is active in the assessments by the Arctic Monitoring Assessment Program (AMAP). Sweden has placed special focus on resilience and social-ecological issues. SMHI hosts the international project office for the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), on behalf of WCRP. The Rossby Centre at SMHI is one of the leading centres for producing and publishing regional climate change projections, having made projections for many different regions (Europe, Africa, the Arctic, the Middle East and North Africa, South Asia as well as South, Central and North America). These scenarios are used by climate scientists and for adaptation in Sweden and Europe but also on other continents including developing countries. Another significant climate-related effort is the Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES). Sweden is a member of this initiative, and the Swedish EPA serves as the Focal Point.
The major part of Swedish support to adaptation in developing countries goes through the Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency Sida. Environment and climate change permeate all of Sida’s work. This is done through integration of environment and climate change in all sectors and in dialogue with partner countries, multilateral institutions and other stakeholders. Sida’s support to environment and climate change is focused on the following main areas: Increased resilience to environmental and climate change; improved institutional capacity for environmental management; sustainable management and use of biodiversity and ecosystem services: sustainable cities; food security and sustainable agriculture; integrated water resource management and sanitation; and improved access to sustainable energy. In total, Sida provided 12.2 billion SEK in 2019 to contributions with environment and climate change as the main objective.

Nordic and European collaboration

There is ongoing cooperation between the various Nordic climate change adaptation portals and European adaptation knowledge hubs and contact through the EU’s climate change adaptation portal, Climate-ADAPT. Within the EU, research funding for climate change adaptation can be applied for, and projects have been carried out from which further knowledge can be developed. These include the EU’s Copernicus environmental data programme, which is a world leader in terms of collecting data about the Earth’s climate and other global systems. Copernicus is a long-term focus that will provide reliable environmental information over time, making it possible to follow long-term trends such as changes to vegetation or water environments. The Swedish Agency for Marine and Water Management has produced the report ‘Öppna data från Copernicus – Möjligheter för klimatanpassningen’ (‘Open data from Copernicus – Opportunities for climate change adaptation’, HaV report 2017:31) to show how the programme’s data and services can be used for climate change adaptation.

SMHI

National Knowledge Centre for Climate Change Adaptation
Providing knowledge and support for adaptation. Reporting and monitoring of adaptation.
Åsa Sjöström
Manager of the National Knowledge Centre for Climate Change Adaptation

Relevant websites and social media source

[Disclaimer]
The information presented in these pages is based on the reporting according to 'Regulation (EU) 2018/1999 on the Governance of the Energy Union and Climate Action' and updates by the EEA member countries. However, for those pages where the information is last updated before 01/01/2021, the information presented is based on the reporting according to 'Regulation (EU) No 525/2013 on a mechanism for monitoring and reporting greenhouse gas emissions and for reporting other information relevant to climate change' and updates by the EEA member countries.'