Managing the increasing risk of wildfires in a changing climate, Sweden

From an international perspective, the problem of wildfires is relatively small in Sweden. However, the major fires of 2014 and 2018 clearly showed that the risk of wildfires is very real and that it is important to be prepared in order to reduce the impact on the environment, economy and society.

Climate change is predicted to increase the number and intensity of wildfires

The number of wildfires varies greatly from year to year in Sweden. Over the past 20 years, there have been between 2 000 and 8 000 fires per year. The greatest number of fires occur around densely populated areas and most firefighting efforts are carried out during the months of April to August.

The weather affects fire danger. Precipitation, temperature, humidity, wind speed, thunder and solar radiation have the greatest impact on how wildfires take hold and spread. The drier the vegetation and the stronger the wind, the faster the fire will spread. High-intensity fires can burn everything in their path and are therefore very destructive. Not surprisingly, a dry and hot summer produces many more fires than a wet summer. A recent study, by the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute and the Swedish Civil Protection Agency (2024) predicts that the frequency and length of the so-called high-risk periods in Sweden will increase with climate change, especially in Southern Sweden and along the Baltic sea coast. It is therefore likely that we will see more wildfire incidents in the future.  

Sweden has a vast land area and a large number of stakeholders, which complicates wildfire management

Sweden's land area is about 41 million hectares, of which 68 per cent is forested land and 7 per cent agricultural land. 48% of the forests is privately owned (about 315,000 people), the rest is owned by limited companies (25%), state-owned limited companies (12%) and the state itself (8%).

According to law, responsibility for preventing, planning and extinguishing fires is divided between individuals, owners, municipalities and the state. The large area, the variety of stakeholder types, together with the Swedish Right to Public Access, including on private land, add to the wildfire management challenges. Many different actors need to work together to prevent and effectively extinguish wildfires if they do occur.

During the 2014 and 2018 wildfires, it was concluded that many actors acted too slowly or cautiously at first. There was also a lack of fire-fighting resources. The importance of early detection and early intervention to extinguish fires was confirmed and that clear roles, coordination of resources and good communication lines are central to effective the wildfire management.

Wildfires are costly

Uncontrolled wildfires can cause major damage to forests and endanger the lives of people, animals and plants. Wildfires cause significant economic losses not just for the affected land owners, but also to society as a whole, affecting livelihood opportunities and health. The negative effects can continue even after the fire is extinguished. Fire-damaged trees can fall and cause injuries; the forest related industries may face a shortage of logs; the greenhouse gases released by fires contribute to further climate change; forest production is reduced; and biodiversity and ecosystem services can be disrupted. An increased number of wildfires will also increase the cost of firefighting.

Wildfires affect the environment and the climate

Controlled fires can be used as a management tool and contribute to ecosystems management and maintaining biodiversity. The problem is out of control wildfires. Early detection and rapid extinguishing help to reduce the risk of damages to ecosystems, animals and plants, while minimizing pollution of water and air due to smoke and hazardous extinguishing chemicals.

The social values of forests are an important resource for society in Sweden in terms of people's well-being, health, housing/living environment, regional development and tourism. Protecting forests by preventing damage from wildfires is therefore another key dimension of the improved wildfire management proposal.

Forests also play an important role in mitigating Sweden's greenhouse gas emissions and is also an important motivating factor in minimising the number of wildfires.

Various laws and regulations govern the roles and responsibilities around prevention of wildfires and wildfire management. The most important ones are:

The Forestry Act (Skogsvårdslagen (1979:429) – states that the forest is a national asset and a renewable resource that must be managed so that it provides a good return on a sustainable basis while maintaining biodiversity. This includes minimizing the risk for wildfires through appropriate management.

The Civil Protection Act (Lagen om skydd mot olyckor (2003:778) confirms that the responsibility for preventing, planning and extinguishing fires is divided between private individuals, owners, municipalities and the state. This means that everybody has a responsibility to minimize the risk of wildfires and to assist with extinguishing fires. The updated Act now also confirms the role of the Civil Protection Agency in providing coordination and prioritization at a national level.

The Swedish Environmental Code (Miljöbalk (1998:808)) regulates the right to Public Access by stipulating that those who spend time in nature "shall show consideration and care in their dealings with it", usually summarised as "do not disturb or destroy", which includes following fire restrictions and regulations. The various aspects of making fires outdoors are covered further by a variety of other laws. The responsibilities and obligations of forest owners and entrepreneurs who work in the forest are also covered by private insurance regulations.

Thus, everybody has a responsibility to behave responsibly to avoid starting fires by accident. The system therefore depends on people being aware of the wildfire restrictions and regulations and having some knowledge of the related risks.

With an expected increase in the number of wildfires in the future, the Swedish government aims to minimise the risks, damages and costs of wildfires as much as possible. Several government inquiries were set up after the 2018 wildfires to analyse the existing legislation and the operational rescue efforts. Based on the inquiries, the Government decided on changes to the Civil Protection Act with the objective of improving wildfire protection and reducing potential damages. These changes were also made to clarify the roles, responsibilities and communication strategies. Other improvements included making use of modern technology for early detection and monitoring of wildfires, improving fire-fighting capabilities and raising wildfire knowledge levels both among forest owners and citizens in general.

The new Civil Protection Act, updated by the Swedish Government includes the following areas of action.

Clear mandates and improved coordination and cooperation between relevant public and private actors 

In a crisis or emergency situation, clear responsibilities, procedures, funding, and communication channels are essential. Through the updated act, the Swedish Civil Contingency Agency (MSB) now has enhanced authority to oversee municipal adherence to wildfire management regulations, organize crisis leadership, and supervise wildfire response. Although regional and municipal fire services retain primary responsibility, MSB has expanded powers to support and coordinate among municipalities, counties, and emergency services, and can allocate additional resources if local supplies are insufficient, including personnel, equipment, helicopters, and water planes.

These legal updates give MSB greater control by enabling it to issue binding regulations and monitor municipal compliance with wildfire response requirements. MSB reviews regional coordination practices, providing feedback on about half of the systems monitored. Additionally, MSB provides local authorities with information to guide fire ban decisions, using forecasts from the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI).

While MSB is responsible for wildfire protection, responsibilities for compliance with the national strategy for the protection of forest, including forests with high natural values, fall under the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency . Alongside the MSB and the other public sector organisations, the private sector continues to develop products, services and equipment to assist forest owners with detection, monitoring and management of wildfires.

Better forecasting, detection and mapping services

Timely and reliable fire danger forecasts and maps are needed to provide direct guidance to the municipality emergency services, so that they can plan and prepare in order to reduce the response time in case of fire outbreaks. The forecasts also serve as a basis for directing joint firefighting resources.

Fire danger forecasting technologies are constantly evolving, with more and more information being added to the advanced calculations at an increasingly detailed geographical level. Improved fire danger forecast models for Sweden have been developed by the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) in co-operation with MSB. The forecasts and fire danger information form part of SMHI's general forecast and warning services and are available to the public through the SMHI website.  

These forecasts also provide the foundation for MSB's Outdoor Fire Danger application and their Fire Danger map services, which show five-day forecasts that are updated several times each day. The products are designed for the general public and for the municipal fire and rescue services, county administrative boards (Länsstyrelser) and others to provide information on how fire-prone the forest vegetation is. The forecasts and fire danger maps are used by the municipalities and county administrative boards to issue fire bans. They also help guide wildfire monitoring flights.

It is important to detect fires at an early stage, which is why wildfire monitoring is carried out using aeroplanes. The county administrative boards decide where and how they should be used for surveillance. Drones are now sometimes used instead of, or as a complement to, aeroplanes. During the summer of 2022, fire detection using satellite data was introduced as a new and important complement to wildfire monitoring aircraft.

Another improvement is the mapping of waterways suitable for water scooping to guide the scooping aircraft, which is done by MSB.

Increased resources for firefighting

National firefighting preparedness has been reinforced to include at least ten firefighting helicopters and four water-scooping aircraft that can be deployed to different locations based on the current fire danger forecast. There are now also more than twenty wildfire depots around the country that can be used when the local rescue services' own resources are exhausted. The depots contain various types of equipment for extinguishing fires, such as fire hoses, motorised sprayers, off-road vehicles, chainsaws, etc. In addition to the depots, there are also two high-capacity pumps that allow water to be transported over long distances available centrally.

The four water scooping aircrafts are connected to rescEU, which means that they are EU-wide resources where the EU finances most of the costs. The firefighting pilots receive continuous training to maintain high competency levels and safety standards.

MSB also supports county administrative boards, fire and rescue services and other authorities with information and regular training, and has developed a free digital training service with online courses and exercise material.

Increased public awareness

Raising public knowledge on how to avoid wildfires and how to extinguish fires, is an essential part of the preventative work, as many wildfires are accidentally started by people.

Information starts at school where the rights and responsibilities related to the Right to Public Access forms part of the school curriculum. Most Swedes therefore have a basic understanding of the risk of wildfires by the time they leave school.

General wildfire information to the public, residents and tourists, is mainly the responsibility of municipalities and county administrative boards, but MSB also provides communication support and materials. A lot of the information to the public is now available digitally, for example through the fire danger app and websites described above, which help private individuals to keep track of the fire danger in forests and fields. The app shows the forecast for current and future fire danger by area, existing fire bans and provides advice and information on how to safely build fires and barbecues during times when fires are allowed. It is available in both Swedish and English.

New guidelines for forest management

In addition to the Civil Protection organisations, the Swedish Forest Agency and forest owners have important roles  in the prevention of wildfires. Swedish forestry policy is often summarised under the motto “Freedom with responsibility”. Freedom means that forestry legislation contains relatively few governing and binding rules. Guidelines are therefore needed to help forest owners become aware of how they can help reduce the risk of wildfires starting through management measures.

The forestry industry stakeholders are developing their own tools to prevent the occurrence and spread of wildfires. Updated industry-wide guidelines provide support for planning, consultation, skills, emergency procedures and equipment and nature-based solutions. The forestry advice and guidelines are presented on the website of Skogforsk, the Swedish forestry research institute, funded by the forestry industry and the government.

The Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) is conducting research into the use of  Nature-based solutions (NbS) in the light of climate change. NbS can be a long-term approach to reducing fire danger. Fires in deciduous forests are less intense and spread more slowly. Wetlands, with their ability to retain water in the landscape, can sometimes also help to limit fire danger, although the processes are complex. Creating, preserving and restoring wetlands in the forest landscape is thus a potential new management opportunity. Guidelines for deciduous forests and wetlands are available from the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency.

The Swedish Government has recently commissioned a special investigation (2024) to review the national forest policy with the aim of developing an appropriate forest policy for the future that promotes long-term sustainable Swedish forestry and a growing bio-economy, i.e. for an economic and societal development based on renewable resources. 

A Government inquiry was conducted after the major wildfires in 2018. It included representation from various ministries, national authorities, including the Swedish Civil Contingency Agency (MSB), the defence force, rescue services, forest owners, regional authorities (county administrative boards), and local fire-fighting services. Various researchers and organisations, such as MSB,  have also published accounts and evaluations of the wildfire event. The respective reports are based on extensive interviews with all the  groups and people who had been involved in fighting the wildfires. The conclusions and the proposed improvements are thus well anchored both at government and public levels.

Factors that have contributed to success outweigh the limiting factors.

Political factors

In this case the public and the government have the same priorities, i.e. to reduce the impact of wildfires and to maintain a healthy forest landscape as a base for the economy, but also for recreation and wellbeing. The strong government support, leadership and subsequent changes to the legal framework governing wildfires, has been an essential factor in speeding up implementation of the recommendations.  

Governance factors

With a multi-faceted stakeholder pattern, it has been essential for the implementation of adaptation measures to have clear responsibilities and mandates. The 2018 wildfires proved that unclear communication lines and roles risk slowing down vital decision-making and contributed to increased damages. The fact that the mandates and overall responsibility for wildfire resources and follow-up are anchored in the Civil Protection Act further serves to strengthen the implementation structures.

Technical factors

Technology and expertise is widespread across society. Appointing the Civil Protection Contingency Agency (MSB) to coordinate resources and follow-up on responsibilities helps to ensure that technical know-how, expertise  and resources are up-to-date. Wildfire detection technologies continue to be developed and refined. It is expected that the use of satellite data and drones will increase in the future as they are cost effective means of detecting and monitoring wildfires.

Physical and biological forest management factors

Sweden has a lot of forests spread over a vast area, many of which are remote. The forests are mainly made up of pine and spruce species. Coniferous forests are more prone to wildfires than deciduous forests that contain more moisture. These factors help to argue the case for coordination and sharing of resources to keep costs down, but also to introduce Nature-based solutions, such as limiting monocultures and mixing in more deciduous trees to reduce the risk of so-called mega wildfires in the future.

Social factors

The right to roam and public access to nature (Allemansrätt) are cornerstones of Swedish society and most Swedes have a basic understanding of how to behave in nature through the school curriculum. There is also a common understanding that spending time in nature is good for your health and well-being. The need for a robust legal framework and adaptation measures to reduce wildfires  in order to protect nature and people, are therefore well anchored with the general public. It is important to continue to raising awareness to remind people of the risks and costs related to wildfires and to encourage responsible behaviour to avoid accidental fires. This needs to include groups such as new arrivals and foreign tourists that have not been through the Swedish school system and may not have a full understanding of the roles and responsibilities associated with the “allemansrätt”, especially in view of the expected increase in tourist numbers in the future.

Economic factors

Fighting wildfires is expensive and often requires joint resources. Sharing of resources like aeroplanes and helicopters is a cost-effective way to manage the wildfire services. Recurrent budget allocations to maintain the services could become a limiting factor if the national economy is under pressure.

The coordination of wildfire services is implemented with a national perspective and in collaboration with the EU. The services are mainly funded through public budgets  - from the state, municipalities and also EU funds.

The combined economic losses of a mega wildfire are likely to be much higher than the cost of the adaptation measures, as wildfires affect not just the forest but the whole forestry industry, infrastructure and public health.

The total cost to society of the 2014 and 2018 wildfires is difficult to estimate. The insurance sector alone estimates the cost of direct damages to over 500 million Swedish Kronor (over 43 million EUR) each time and the societal costs are likely to exceed 1 billion SEK (around 87 million EUR).

The forestry industry is important for Sweden and produces, directly and indirectly, goods with a value added of around 120 billion SEK (around 10 million EUR) per year, which corresponds to just under 2.5 per cent of Sweden's GDP. A total of 120,000 people work in the forestry industry. The benefits of reducing damages to forests, disruptions to production, negative effects on biodiversity and health as much as possible is though is therefore most likely to outweigh the cost of detection and firefighting.

There are also non-economic societal benefits from limiting the number of uncontrolled wildfires. They include maintained biodiversity and ecosystem services, reduced air pollution, maintained water and soil quality, preserved landscapes and recreational areas. These, in turn, have a positive effect on health and well-being, and on job creation through the forest industry, berry picking and tourism, for example.

Avoiding wildfires is also beneficial for climate mitigation. Forests directly contribute to carbon sequestration and potential directly contribute to climate mitigation through carbon sinks. Biomass is a renewable energy source and wood products, if used in a sustainable result in far less carbon emissions than those made from either steel or concrete.

The analysis of needs, the changes to an enabling legislation and subsequent implementation of wildfire adaptation measures have taken ca 5 years. By 2024, the adaptation measures are not finished and improvements will continue indefinitely, but there is now a practical structure in place to build on.

As wildfires are recurrent events, measures to prevent, detect and manage wildfires will need to continue indefinitely and possibly be increased in the future, depending on the rate of climate change. In March 2018, the Swedish Government presented a Swedish national climate change adaptation strategy. The strategy includes Sweden’s climate change adaptation goals, guiding principles for the work, organisation and distribution of responsibilities, monitoring, financing principles and knowledge-boosting initiatives. The national climate change adaptation strategy will be updated every five years and is another source for tracking the success of the wildfire climate adaptation measures.

Leif Sandahl, fire engineer, The Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency
Leif.Sandahl@msb.se

Stefan Andersson, meteorologist, The Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency
Stefan.Andersson@msb.se

registrator@msb.se

(in Swedish)

SMHI (2024). Framtida brandrisk – förändringar i perioder av hög brandrisk enligt FWI-modellen (in Swedish),

Skogsbränderna sommaren 2018 – Statens offentliga utredningar SOU 2019:7  

Lag 2003-778 Lag om skydd mot olyckor