Climatic suitability for Dengue

Description

Dengue is a viral disease transmitted by Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquitoes. Aedes albopictus is present in Europe and is expanding its territory. Besides more global travel, climate change can be a driver of dengue emergence in Europe since shifts in temperature and precipitation make the region’s climate more suitable for the transmission of dengue.

One way of measuring the health threats associated with dengue under the changing climate is to estimate the changes in the basic reproduction rate (R0), which estimates the expected number of secondary infections from one infectious case in a completely susceptible population. If R0 is higher than 1, outbreaks have the potential to grow. The higher R0 is, the faster the outbreak will grow.

This indicator uses a stage-structured mechanistic model to estimate the mosquito abundance and subsequently the basic reproduction rate (R0) for dengue by combining information on temperature, rainfall, daylight hours, mosquito abundance, and human population density.

Caveats

The predicted R0 should not be confused with actual dengue cases, although it is an indicator of the potential for outbreaks.

Reference information

Websites:

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanpub/article/PIIS2468-2667(24)00055-0/fulltext

https://www.lancetcountdown.org/europe/

Source:

Publication:

van Daalen, K. R., et al., 2024, The 2024 Europe report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: unprecedented warming demands unprecedented action, The Lancet Public Health. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2468-2667(24)00055-0

Data sources:

Climatic data: Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), ERA5 Land Reanalysis data

Population data: HYBRID gridded demographic data

Link to repository with code:

Pratik, S., 2024, Dengue transmission suitability LCDE 2024, https://github.com/Pratik697/Dengue-transmission-suitability-LCDE2024

Additional reading:

Colón-González, F. J., et al., 2021, Projecting the risk of mosquito-borne diseases in a warmer and more populated world: a multi-model, multi-scenario intercomparison modelling study, The Lancet Planetary Health 5(7), e404-e414. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(21)00132-7
DiSera, L., et al., 2020, The mosquito, the virus, the climate: an unforeseen reunion in 2018, Geohealth 4(8), e2020GH000253. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GH000253
Murray, K. A., et al., 2020, Tracking infectious diseases in a warming world, BMJ 371, m3086. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.m3086
Rocklöv, J., and Tozan, Y., 2019, Climate change and the rising infectiousness of dengue, Emerging Topics in Life Sciences 3(2), 133-142. https://doi.org/10.1042%2FETLS20180123