Home Database Indicators Climatic suitability for infectious disease transmission - Vibrio

Climatic suitability for infectious disease transmission - Vibrio


Vibrio bacteria are found in lowly saline, warm waters and can cause a range of human infections, including gastroenteritis, wound infections or blood poisoning (septicaemia). This indicator assesses the influence of a changing climate on the environmental suitability for the transmission of these infectious diseases.


  1. The infection rate applied here is based on the published data for the USA.50 A more accurate infection rate adjusted to the epidemiological situation in Europe would be convenient to obtain a more precise picture of the impact of Vibrio illness across Europe. Additionally, a more realistic estimate of infection rate needs also to consider limitations of surveillance data and under-reporting, which has been widely reported worldwide. In Trinanes, Martinez-Urtaza, 202149 we corrected the estimated number of cases by applying the under-reporting ratio for the USA of 14351. However, an estimate of the underreporting in Europe would be also necessary. The current form doesn’t take into account regional/national, socio-economic, and cultural conditions. 
  2. The population datasets show gaps for certain non-landlocked countries in the European continent.
  3. The indicators are provided at NUTS 0 level.
  4. The ocean parameters, more importantly SSS, show certain limitations in the coastal region, as models do not usually provide an accurate picture of SSS variability under heavy rainfall and/or river runoff and/or ice melting. This might be mitigated by an improved in-situ observing network in the coastal areas, and enhanced model data assimilation schemes.

Reference information



van Daalen, K. R., et al., 2022, ‘The 2022 Europe report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: towards a climate resilient future’, The Lancet Public Health 7(11), pp. E942-E965. doi: 10.1016/S2468-2667(22)00197-9


Data sources:

  1. Population data: Eurostat GEOSTAT gridded population data
  2. Sea surface temperature: NASA GHRSST level 4 MUR global foundation Sea Surface Temperature analysis dataset (v4.1)
  3. Sea surface salinity data: EU Copernicus Marine Service Global Ocean Physics Reanalysis

Additional reading:

  • Trinanes, J., and Martinez-Urtaza, J., 2021, Future scenarios of risk of Vibrio infections in a warming planet: a global mapping study, The Lancet Planetary Health 5(7), e426-e435. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(21)00169-8
  • Semenza, J. C., et al., 2017, Environmental suitability of Vibrio infections in a warming climate: an early warning system, Environmental health perspectives 125(10), 107004. https://doi.org/10.1289/ehp2198
  • Semenza, J. C., et al., 2022, 2.4 Water-borne Diseases: EO System for the Coastal Monitoring of Non-Cholera Vibrios. In: Earth Observation, Public Health and One Health Activities, Challenges and Opportunities, Prepared by: Public Health Agency of Canada Report, Editors: Stéphanie Brazeau and Nicholas H. Ogden. CAB International. WeWork. Boston, MA 02111, USA. http://dx.doi.org/10.1079/9781800621183.0000
  • Murray, K. A., et al., 2020, Tracking infectious diseases in a warming world, BMJ 371, m3086. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.m3086
Lancet Countdown in Europe
European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control

Published in Climate-ADAPT Feb 17 2021   -   Last Modified in Climate-ADAPT Feb 04 2023

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