Home Database Indicators Climatic suitability for infectious disease transmission - Vibrio
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Indicator

Climatic suitability for infectious disease transmission - Vibrio

Description

Vibrio bacteria are found in lowly saline, warm waters and can cause a range of human infections, including gastroenteritis, wound infections or blood poisoning (septicaemia). This indicator assesses the influence of a changing climate on the environmental suitability for the transmission of these infectious diseases.

Caveats

  1. The infection rate applied here is based on the published data for the USA.50 A more accurate infection rate adjusted to the epidemiological situation in Europe would be convenient to obtain a more precise picture of the impact of Vibrio illness across Europe. Additionally, a more realistic estimate of infection rate needs also to consider limitations of surveillance data and under-reporting, which has been widely reported worldwide. In Trinanes, Martinez-Urtaza, 202149 we corrected the estimated number of cases by applying the under-reporting ratio for the USA of 14351. However, an estimate of the underreporting in Europe would be also necessary. The current form doesn’t take into account regional/national, socio-economic, and cultural conditions. 
  2. The population datasets show gaps for certain non-landlocked countries in the European continent.
  3. The indicators are provided at NUTS 0 level.
  4. The ocean parameters, more importantly SSS, show certain limitations in the coastal region, as models do not usually provide an accurate picture of SSS variability under heavy rainfall and/or river runoff and/or ice melting. This might be mitigated by an improved in-situ observing network in the coastal areas, and enhanced model data assimilation schemes.

Reference information

Source:

Publication:

van Daalen, K. R., et al., 2022, ‘The 2022 Europe report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: towards a climate resilient future’, The Lancet Public Health 7(11), pp. E942-E965. doi: 10.1016/S2468-2667(22)00197-9

 

Data sources:

  1. Population data: Eurostat GEOSTAT gridded population data
  2. Sea surface temperature: NASA GHRSST level 4 MUR global foundation Sea Surface Temperature analysis dataset (v4.1)
  3. Sea surface salinity data: EU Copernicus Marine Service Global Ocean Physics Reanalysis

Additional reading:

  • Trinanes, J., and Martinez-Urtaza, J., 2021, Future scenarios of risk of Vibrio infections in a warming planet: a global mapping study, The Lancet Planetary Health 5(7), e426-e435. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(21)00169-8
  • Semenza, J. C., et al., 2017, Environmental suitability of Vibrio infections in a warming climate: an early warning system, Environmental health perspectives 125(10), 107004. https://doi.org/10.1289/ehp2198
  • Semenza, J. C., et al., 2022, 2.4 Water-borne Diseases: EO System for the Coastal Monitoring of Non-Cholera Vibrios. In: Earth Observation, Public Health and One Health Activities, Challenges and Opportunities, Prepared by: Public Health Agency of Canada Report, Editors: Stéphanie Brazeau and Nicholas H. Ogden. CAB International. WeWork. Boston, MA 02111, USA. http://dx.doi.org/10.1079/9781800621183.0000
  • Murray, K. A., et al., 2020, Tracking infectious diseases in a warming world, BMJ 371, m3086. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.m3086
Contributor:
Lancet Countdown in Europe
European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control

Published in Climate-ADAPT Feb 17 2021   -   Last Modified in Climate-ADAPT Dec 12 2023

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