Exposure of vulnerable people to heatwaves

Experiencing high temperatures may lead to heat stress and heat stroke, and aggravate already existing chronic diseases (e.g. cardiovascular, respiratory, renal diseases or diabetes). Older adults (65+) and infants (below 1 year old) are particularly vulnerable to extreme heat exposure.

This indicator presents the change in the number of heatwave days to which adults aged 65+ or infants below 1 year were exposed in the period 2015-2024, compared to 1991-2000.

For the purpose of this indicator, heatwaves are defined as periods of 2 or more consecutive days during which both minimum and maximum temperature exceed the 95th percentile of the local climatology (individual heatwave days are not counted). The total number of heatwave days was multiplied by the vulnerable population count for the baseline time period (1991-2000) and for the latest decade (2015-2024), resulting in a measurement of“person days” for both periods. The percentage increase of the number of heatwave days between the baseline and comparison period was then calculated.

Interpretation of results

Across Europe, the average number of heatwave days that older adults (65+ years) were exposed to during 2015-2024 was estimated to have increased by 266 % compared to the baseline period of 1991-2000.

In Europe, the average number of heatwave days that infants were exposed to during 2015-2024 was estimated to have increased by 121% compared to the baseline 1991-2000.

The number of older adults in Europe is higher than the number of children under the age of one; therefore the difference in the number of heatwave days experienced by these groups. (see method description)

Caveats

To estimate demographic changes over time, data was integrated from multiple sources to capture both spatial distribution and temporal evolution of population characteristics. This combined methodology, while comprehensive, has undergone limited validation procedures.