Climatic suitability for Malaria

Description

Malaria is a mosquito-borne disease caused by Plasmodium parasites and spread to humans via mosquitos. The disease was endemic in Europe until the 1970s, when it was eliminated. An increasing number of malaria cases is being registered in Europe, largely due to international travel. With the widespread presence of the malaria vector (Anopheles mosquitoes) and the increasing climatic suitability for this vector (increased rainfall and higher temperatures under the changing climate), malaria may re‑emerge in Europe.

Using a threshold-based model that incorporates accumulated precipitation, relative humidity, temperature, and suitable land cover classes (i.e., rice fields, permanently irrigated land, and sport and leisure facilities), this indicator estimates the number of months with suitable conditions for Plasmodium vivax transmission.

Caveats

This indicator reflects only the conditions that would facilitate malaria transmission if public health efforts had not been made to control it. Furthermore, the indicator considers land cover classes to be constant over time and ignores the role of container breading sides for Anopheles mosquitoes.

Reference information

Websites:

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanpub/article/PIIS2468-2667(24)00055-0/fulltext

https://www.lancetcountdown.org/europe/

Source:

Publication:

van Daalen, K. R., et al., 2024, The 2024 Europe report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: unprecedented warming demands unprecedented action, The Lancet Public Health. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2468-2667(24)00055-0.

Link to repository with code:

Lotto Batista, M., 2024, Indicator 1.3.4: Suitability for malaria transmission, https://earth.bsc.es/gitlab/ghr/lcde-malaria

Data sources:

Climatic data: Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), ERA5 Land Reanalysis data
Land cover data: EEA, CORINE Land Cover
Altitude data: EEA, 2016, elevation map based on GTOP030
Malaria incidence rates: Worldbank, Incidence of malaria
Population data: Worldbank, Total population

Additional reading:

Klepac, P., et al. 2024, Climate change, malaria, and neglected tropical diseases: a scoping review, Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, trae026 https://doi.org/10.1093/trstmh/trae026
Colón-González, F. J., et al., 2021, Projecting the risk of mosquito-borne diseases in a warmer and more populated world: a multi-model, multi-scenario intercomparison modelling study, The Lancet Planetary Health 5(7), e404-e414. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(21)00132-7
Boualam, M. A., 2021, Malaria in Europe: a historical perspective, Frontiers in Medicine 8, 691095. https://doi.org/10.3389/fmed.2021.691095
Murray, K. A., et al., 2020, Tracking infectious diseases in a warming world, BMJ 371, m3086. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.m3086
Fischer, L., et al., 2020, Rising temperature and its impact on receptivity to malaria transmission in Europe: A systematic review, Travel Medicine and Infectious Disease 36, 101815. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tmaid.2020.101815
Grover-Kopec, E. K., et al., 2006, Web-based climate information resources for malaria control in Africa, Malaria journal 5(1), 1-9. https://doi.org/10.1186/1475-2875-5-38