West Nile Virus outbreak risk

West Nile virus (WNV) is a climate-sensitive zoonotic pathogen which spreads from birds to humans via mosquitoes and causes mild to severe fever and potentially other health conditions. Warmer winters and springs can drive outbreaks of WNV or expand infection risks to previously unaffected regions as both the virus and its vector mosquito (Culex sp.) thrive at warmer temperatures. In Europe, seasonal (summer) WNV outbreaks occur annually with increasing intensity, frequency, and geographical expansion.

This indicator uses a machine learning classifier to predict WNV outbreak risk based on data on WNV presence or absence, climatic variables (temperature and precipitation), population density, and socio-economic factors.

Caveats

Only the data on human WNV cases were considered in the study. The inclusion of the infection data for horses and host birds would further strengthen the model predictions.