Wildfire danger, smoke and attributable deaths

Exposure to wildfire smoke, including fine particulate matter (PM2.5), is associated with irritation of the eye, nose, throat and skin, and an increased risk of longer-term adverse cardiovascular and respiratory outcomes. While European fire control and management have improved since pre-industrial times, increased fire danger induced by climate change and epidemiological and demographic trends threaten to increase the health burden from forest fire smoke.

This indicator tracks the climate-driven change in wildfire danger (Fire Weather Index), estimates changes in the annual exposure for wildfire-originated PM2.5, and estimates deaths attributable to wildfire-originated PM2.5.

Caveats

There is currently no widely accepted exposure-response function specific to wildfire-PM2.5. The epidemiologic literature linking wildfire smoke and health effects is still limited, particularly for European populations and exposure assessment methods vary between studies. The exposure-response function used in the indicator assumes a similar toxicity and exposure range of wildfire PM2.5 and PM2.5 from other sources. The indicator uses satellite measurements to determine PM2.5 concentrations, considering the full vertical atmospheric column, while predominantly ground-level PM2.5 is damaging to health. Exposure to other pollutants produced by wildfires, including PM10, are not included in the indicator. The PM2.5 dataset and the GEOSTAT population grids for Europe used to calculate exposure to PM2.5 were limited, and therefore estimates were only available from 2003. Additionally, the number of countries included in the estimate varies between years due to availability of weekly mortality data.