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Zika is a viral disease transmitted by Aedes mosquitos. Symptoms typically include fever, rash, pain, or malaise and are generally mild. However, Zika virus infections during pregnancy can cause preterm birth or miscarriage, or infants to be born with malformations. Besides worldwide travel, climate change is also contributing to the presence of the Zika virus in Europe since climatic conditions become more suitable for the virus and its mosquito vector.

One way of measuring the health threats associated with Zika under the changing climate is to estimate the changes in the basic reproduction rate (R0), which estimates the expected number of secondary infections from one infectious case in a completely susceptible population. If R0 is higher than 1, outbreaks have the potential to grow. The higher R0 is, the faster the outbreak will grow. 

This indicator uses a stage-structured mechanistic model to estimate the mosquito abundance and subsequently the basic reproduction rate (R0) for Zika by combining information on temperature, rainfall, daylight hours, mosquito abundance, and human population density. 

Caveats

Liu-Helmersson et al. (2014, 2016) and Rocklöv et al. (2019) fully describe the V model and its parameterisation's key caveats and limitations. The predicted R0 should not be confused with actual Zika cases, although it is an indicator of the potential for outbreaks.

Reference information

Websites:
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanpub/article/PIIS2468-2667(24)00055-0/fulltext
https://www.lancetcountdown.org/europe/
Source:

Publication:

van Daalen, K. R., et al., 2024, The 2024 Europe report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: unprecedented warming demands unprecedented action, The Lancet Public Health. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/S2468-2667(24)00055-0

Data sources:

  • Climatic data:
  • Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), ERA5 Land Reanalysis data

Population data: hybrid gridded data combining:

  • NASA-SEDAC Gridded Population of the World (GPW) v4   
  • ISIMIP historic and future annual global gridded population data

Link to repository with code: 

Additional reading:

  • Colón-González, F. J., et al., 2021, Projecting the risk of mosquito-borne diseases in a warmer and more populated world: a multi-model, multi-scenario intercomparison modelling study, The Lancet Planetary Health 5(7), e404-e414. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(21)00132-7
  • DiSera, L., et al., 2020, The mosquito, the virus, the climate: an unforeseen reunion in 2018, Geohealth 4(8), e2020GH000253. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GH000253
  • Murray, K. A., et al., 2020, Tracking infectious diseases in a warming world, BMJ 371, m3086. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.m3086
  • Rocklöv, J., et al., 2016, Assessing seasonal risks for the introduction and mosquito-borne spread of Zika virus in Europe, EBioMedicine 9, 250-256. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ebiom.2016.06.009
    • Contributor:
    Lancet Countdown in Europe

    Published in Climate-ADAPT: Dec 5, 2022

    Date of publication:

    2024

    Keywords:
    Climate-sensitive disease, Mosquito-borne disease
    Climate impacts:

    Non specific

    Adaptation Approaches:

    Observations and Scenarios, Vulnerability Assessment

    Sectors:

    Health

    Geographic characterisation:

    Europe

    Health impact:

    Climate-sensitive diseases

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    This translation is generated by eTranslation, a machine translation tool provided by the European Commission.