Paris Agreement Overshooting – Reversibility, Climate Impacts and Adaptation Needs (PROVIDE)

Overshooting the Paris Agreement temperature thresholds could have serious consequences, especially for vulnerable regions and sectors facing potentially irreversible effects. A full consideration of the impacts and adaptation needs under the overshooting scenarios thus requires a risk threshold perspective integrating emission pathways, terrestrial system feedback, regional to local impacts and context-specific vulnerabilities. To address that challenge, PROVIDE delivers highly innovative, inclusive climate services that incorporate comprehensive information on impacts under overshoot pathways from the global to the regional and urban level directly contributing to adaptation action.

Specifically, the project aims to: 1) Create global multi-scenario, multi-sectoral climate information that integrates and quantifies impacts across scales using new climate and impact indicators; 2) Assess the uncertainties and feedbacks of the climate system and the (ir) reversibility of climate impacts to provide comprehensive risk assessment of overshooting; 3) Develop a generalized overshoot proofing methodology for adaptation strategies to enhance adaptation actions in response to overshoot risks; 4) Identify and prioritize overshoot adaptation needs in the four highly complementary case study regions; 5) Integrate all project outcomes into the PROVIDE Climate Risk Dashboard.

The PROVIDE Climate Risk Dashboard is an online platform providing detailed information on overshoot scenarios and expected impacts and their reversibility, with unique sectoral coverage including extreme events, biodiversity, cryosphere, sea level rise, agriculture, economic damages, socio-economic vulnerabilities among others. The information includes global, national and city level modelling results. 

The design and the presentation of the data is currently co-developed together with stakeholders and a beta version is available