Transformational and Robust AdaptatioN to water Scarcity and ClimatE chaNge under Deep uncertainty (TRANSCEND)

TRANSCEND (Transformational and Robust Adaptation to Water Scarcity and Climate Change under Deep Uncertainty) is a Horizon Europe research project that identifies ways of managing water when its availability is low, and the uncertainty of cascading effects is high. Worldwide, water resources management is increasingly challenged by water scarcity and climate change, which can trigger and aggravate other ecological (e.g. pests) and socioeconomic threats (e.g. commodity price fluctuations) via feedback loops and cascading impacts across systems. The frequency, magnitude, and especially the cascading effects of scarcity and climate change on water management are often hard to estimate because there are many variables and effects that hinder planning. Conventional decision-making methods and policies are less useful to deal with such (deep) uncertainty.

In this context, planning for the future is rife with uncertainties for which conventional decision-making methods and policies are inadequate. The objective of TRANSCEND is to identify and catalyze the adoption of Transformational Adaptation Policies (TAP) to water scarcity, including innovative allocation systems and economic instruments, that are robust and adaptable to uncertainty and change, while simultaneously achieving equitable and sustainable economic growth and welfare.

The project builds on three interactive pillars:  

1. a knowledge network for stakeholder engagement and knowledge sharing  
2. an actionable modeling suite that integrates interdisciplinary socio-ecological science and ensemble forecasting to guide TAP design 
3. an accounting and monitoring toolbox that supports the implementation and enforcement of TAP in practice.