European Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

This is a first draft of European SSPs, based on a mix of CLIMSAVE scenarios for Europe until the 2050s, the global SSPs until 2100, and material produced during an IMPRESSIONS meeting in Wageningen in January 2015 where CLIMSAVE scenarios were matched with global SSPs. The degree of detail differs by scenario and depends largely on the degree to which the CLIMSAVE scenario matched with one of the global SSPs. As with the global SSPs, the EU-SSPs come in three parts, namely qualitative stories, tables with an overview of dynamics of key elements, and quantitative numbers. This document focuses on the narratives and key elements. The Annex presents an overview of other results from the meeting in Wageningen, related to qualitative estimates of model input parameters.

The overall objective of WP2 is to develop multi-scale, integrated climate and socio-economic scenarios for five case studies (global/central Asia, Europe, Scotland, Iberia and Hungary), including high-end climate change scenarios and more extreme socio-economic scenarios. In this document we report the European socio-economic scenarios. Important elements included, for each scenario, are:

• A storyline
• One table with key elements and one with trends for key variables 
• Preliminary top-down and bottom-up quantifications