European wildfire danger and vulnerability under a changing climate: towards integrating risk dimensions

This technical report is a result of the PESETA IV project of the Joint Research Centre (JRC). It provides an assessment on European wildfire danger and vulnerability under climate change.

Changing weather and climate, vegetation condition and composition and human factors all play an essential role in fire regimes. The study examines how these climatic, ecological, and social conditions and their interactions contribute to wildfire risk in Europe.

Results show that the number of days with high-to-extreme wildfire danger is expected to increase with the changing climate. Moreover, the interface between urban areas and wildland (WUI) was identified as an indicator of where the people are more vulnerable to wildfires. Potential adaptation options to decrease fire risk are also proposed in chapter 4.1. The findings suggest to focus on the Mediterranean and mountain areas of Europe characterised by higher potential vegetation and population vulnerability, and higher potential fire danger.