How will climate change affect tourism flows in Europe? Adaptation options for beach and ski tourists assessed by ToPDAd models

With climate change, mean temperatures and precipitation patterns will change in Europe. This will have consequences for the traditional tourism destinations. ToPDAd research project assessed how beach and ski tourists may react to changing weather patterns and how this will affect the competitiveness of various European tourism destinations.This can help decision makers and investors choosing the most cost efficient strategies for adapting to climate change.

Many Europeans spend their summer holidays on the beach, with the Mediterranean beaches drawing most tourists. However, ToPDAd’s modelling shows that Mediterranean beach destinations are likely to lose overnight stays during summer months due to climate change, to the benefit of beach destinations elsewhere in Europe. Beach tourism on the aggregate will most likely gain from climate change, with beach season across Europe extending to autumn and spring. Adaptation measures such as promoting shoulder season tourism or alternative activities during summer may reduce the loss in overnight stays for Mediterranean beach destinations.

Skiing tourism will find it harder to adapt to climate change. Since the snow cover during winter is expected to deteriorate in most regions, it is highly likely that some tourists will drop skiing. ToPDAd’s modelling shows that all skiing areas will lose overnight stays during the winter season, but there are regional variations. The loss might be limited by investing in all-year-round tourism, e.g. wellness stays. This will however not make up for the overall decrease in winter tourism.