Ice conditions for maritime traffic in the Baltic Sea in future climate

During winter, large parts of the Baltic Sea are covered with sea ice, which severely affects maritime traffic and requires ice breaking services. Even though ice extent will be reduced in future climate and ice seasons will become shorter, completely ice-free winters are unlikely during the present century. In future climate, the ice becomes thinner, thus fewer traffic restrictions will be needed, but with a large inter-annual variability. In future climate, the ice will also become more mobile. The purpose of the study is to provide information on how climate change will affect parameters important for maritime winter navigation. The study investigates how the Baltic Sea ice will change in a future climate under two different greenhouse-gas concentration scenarios. To model the ice conditions, a state-of-the-art ice–ocean model, Nemo-Nordic, which resolves ice thickness distribution was applied. Implications for maritime traffic restrictions were examined.