MODMAP ALFA: Modelling, predicting and mapping the emergence of aflatoxins in cereals in the EU due to climate change

Aspergillus is a genus of fungi which grow in a number of important food crops (like maize or wheat) and produce toxic aflatoxins (AF) which are of strong concern in food safety. Spread of aspergillus-sensitive crop as well as the growing conditions for aspergillus species are expected to change with climate. This publication describes AF emergence under three warming scenarios (+0/2/5 °C). AF risks were modelled for wheat, maize and rice. The models considered the effects of climate (change) on crop phenology (flowering, harvest), fungal growth and agricultural practice (including crop selection). The main increase of AF risk was predicted for mediterranean maize production under the +2 °C scenario. Projected AF risks from wheat and rice are very low. Good agricultural practice and post-harvest management were suggested as a means for AF risk reduction.