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Human settlements at risk of permafrost thaw by 2060

 Source: Ramage et al., 2021

The map shows current (2017) settlements on permafrost (i) threatened by permafrost thaw where people will have to adapt to changes related to permafrost loss by 2060 (brown dots), and (ii) those that will remain permafrost settlements in 2060 (green dots). Of all European permafrost settlements, only 2 settlements in Norway and less than half of the currently existing settlements in Greenland will still be located on permafrost by 2060.

Health issues

Permafrost is the year-round frozen layer of soil and rock, which covers one quarter of the earth’s northern hemisphere. It is overlaid by an ‘active layer’ of soil that thaws and freezes seasonally, can support plant growth, and at the same time serves as insolation keeping the permafrost temperature below 0°C. In Europe, permafrost is found in the polar regions of the high arctic of Svalbard and in northern parts of the Nordic countries, as well as in the high-altitude mountains of the Nordics and the Alps. Global warming is causing permafrost to thaw, which can adversely affect human health via several pathways including water quality, physical hazards, infrastructure damage, hazardous waste release, agriculture, food security and safety, and exposure to pathogens.

Water quality

Permafrost thaw releases groundwater from frozen soils, changing hydrological pathways, creating more run-off and affecting the groundwater recharge processes. Permafrost thaw also releases naturally stored trace elements (including mercury) and major ions into waterways (Colombo et al., 2018; Lamontagne-Hallé et al., 2018). This deteriorates the drinking water quality, which if consumed in high quantities, can lead to developmental, immune-and reproductive disorders, neurotoxicity, cancer and other health impacts (WHO, 2022).

Physical hazards, infrastructure damage and release of hazardous waste

Permafrost degradation and thaw can cause movement of frozen debris and landslides, posing a direct threat to people. It also reduces the stability of infrastructure (including buildings, roads, railway lines), which may result in reduced access to essential services for already remote communities. This can severely impact the livelihoods of local communities, leading to mental (Bell et al., 2010) and physical health impacts, including injuries and fatalities (IPCC, 2022). Permafrost thaw can also destabilise industrial sites (including waste storage and disposal infrastructure) and cause damage to landfills, drilling sites, storage tanks and pipelines, thereby posing health threats to people. Moreover, hazardous substances, including chemical and radioactive waste, previously stored in permafrost may also be released (Langer et al., 2023). Contact with these hazardous materials can lead to a number of health risks, including radiation sickness, cancer and physiological impairments (Miner et al., 2021).

Agriculture, food security and safety

Changes to permafrost affects agriculture and reindeer-husbandry, which directly impacts the livelihoods of local communities reliant on these practices, leading to high stress levels and poor mental health, as well as poor physical health from reduced water and food availability (Jungsberg et al., 2022). Permafrost thaw can also lead to food contamination and associated food-borne diseases in local communities due to the lower effectiveness of permafrost for natural food refrigeration (Parkinson and Evengård, 2009).

Mercury released by permafrost thaw can also pose health risks via the food chain as the highly potent neurotoxin methyl mercury accumulates in fish and artic mammals such as seals (WHO, 2017). People living in the Artic are particularly at risk of mercury poisoning and associated developmental and neurological diseases (such as the Minamata disease) as fish and artic mammals constitutes a large proportion of the diet (Nedkvitne et al., 2021).

Increased exposure to pathogens

Permafrost thaw may also lead to increased exposure to pathogens, both directly through the release of pathogens previously frozen in permafrost (Miner et al., 2021), and indirectly through improved conditions for disease transmission (e.g., wet or bog-like soils favour mosquito breeding conditions and the expansion of vector-borne diseases; nutrient-richer water due to thawing permafrost increases pathogen virulence in fish and increases the risk for food-borne diseases) (Wu et al., 2022; Wedekind et al., 2010). Particularly warm years have been associated with increased risks of the release of previously frozen anthrax bacteria and anthrax outbreaks, a serious threat to both human health and the livestock (i.e., their source of income) of Arctic herding communities (Stella et al., 2020).

Observed effects

Permafrost temperatures have increased in most areas since the early 1980s due to increased air temperature and changes in snow cover (IPCC, 2022). Widespread permafrost degradation has been observed in the southern Arctic especially, in the Nordics. Yet, a systematic European-wide assessment of impacts of permafrost thaw for people in Europe is lacking and instead mostly sporadic evidence exists. In the high arctic region of Europe, permafrost thaw mostly affects human health through community and livelihood impacts, via physical and mental impacts of compromised water quality, pathogen exposure, threats to food safety and security, and infrastructural damage, but limited recorded evidence of these impacts exists. In high-altitude regions in the Nordics and the Alps, observed health impacts of permafrost thaw relate mostly to infrastructure damage, including avalanche defence structures, and rockfall (Fischer et al., 2012; Ravanel et al., 2017) as the affected areas are often recreational zones rather than community settlements. In July 2022, high mountain permafrost thaw led to the collaps of the Marmolada glacier in the northern Italian Alps, killing 11 people and injuring 8 (Bondesan and Francese, 2023).

Projected effects

Due to global warming, around 70-75% of people and infrastructure currently in permafrost area  is likely to be affected by near-surface permafrost thaw by 2050 (Hjort et al., 2018). Quantitative assessments of future permafrost thaw impacts are rare, but studies that do exist mention impacts such as changed river flow paths and runoff (Rogger et al., 2017), rockfall in mountainous areas (Mourey and Ravanel, 2017), water quality deterioration from industrial contamination (Langer et al., 2023), and increased mercury release from Northern Hemisphere permafrost, i.e., the world’s largest mercury reservoir (Schuster et al., 2018). Permafrost thaw is also expected to exacerbate disease outbreaks, which will affect human and animal health and livelihoods and wellbeing of populations in Europe’s north (Stella et al., 2020).

Policy responses

Current policy responses in the EU mostly address the permafrost thaw phenomenon rather than its health impacts specifically. Commitments to mitigating permafrost thaw and its environmental, climatic and social  impacts are included in the EU Green Deal and through the EU’s Arctic policy. The EU-funded NUNATARYUK project addresses these commitments by investigating how thawing permafrost on land, along the coast, and below the sea changes the global climate and life for people in the Arctic. To effectively address the health impacts of permafrost thaw at EU or national level with adaptive actions, it would be valuable to acquire more (quantitative) knowledge on at-risk communities and their exposure pathways to permafrost thaw.

Further information

References

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