Home Database Research and knowledge projects Prediction of Regional scenarios and Uncertainties for Defining EuropeaN Climate change risks and Effects

Prediction of Regional scenarios and Uncertainties for Defining EuropeaN Climate change risks and Effects (PRUDENCE)


PRUDENCE is a European-scale investigation with the objectives:

  • to address and reduce deficiencies in projections of future climate change;
  • to quantify our confidence and the uncertainties in predictions of future climate and its impacts, using an array of climate models and impact models and expert judgment on their performance;
  • to interpret these results in relation to European policies for adapting to or mitigating climate change.

PRUDENCE is part of a co-operative cluster of projects exploring future changes in extreme events in response to global warming. The other members of the cluster are MICE (Modelling the Impact of Climate Extremes) and STARDEX (Statistical and Regional Dynamic downscaling of Extremes for European regions). PRUDENCE provided a series of high-resolution climate change scenarios for 2071-2100 for Europe, characterising the variability and level of confidence in these scenarios as a function of uncertainties in model formulation, natural/internal climate variability, and alternative scenarios of future atmospheric composition. The project examined the uncertainties in potential impacts induced by the range of climate scenarios developed from the climate modelling results. The PRUDENCE project provided data sets to a significant number of follow up projects.

Project information


Danish Meteorological Institute (DK) Dr. Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen


* CINECA High Performance Systems Division
* Météo-France
* Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt
* UK Met Office, Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research
* Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, ETH
* GKSS Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH
* Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology
* Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute
* Universidad Complutense de Madrid
* Universidad Politécnica de Madrid
* The Abdus Salam Intl. Centre for Theoretical Physics
* Danish Institute of Agricultural Sciences
* Risø National Laboratory
* University of Fribourg
* Finnish Environment Institute
* University of Reading
* Lunds Universitet
* Centre International de Recherche, sur l'Environnement et le Développement, CIRED
* University of East Anglia, Climatic Research Unit
* Finnish Meteorological Institute
* The Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute
* The Norwegian Meteorological Institute
* Tel Aviv University
* Charles University, Prague

Source of funding

FP 5

Reference information


Published in Climate-ADAPT Jun 07 2016   -   Last Modified in Climate-ADAPT Feb 24 2021

Document Actions