Spatial-Dynamic Modelling of Adaptation Options to Climate Change at the Ecosystem Scale (ECOSPACE)

The project has developed a spatially explicit, dynamic modelling approach for identifying and analysing adaptation strategies for ecosystem management. The models also allow analysing specific policy options, such as land use plans or climate change adaptation options. The general model  was tested and validated on the basis of three case studies, focussing on: (i) flood protection in the Netherlands; (ii) impacts of climate change in northern Norway; and (iii) optimising land use including production of biofuels stock in Kalimantan, Indonesia. The first two areas are particularly vulnerable to climate change, and the third area is relevant because of its importance as a source of biofuel (palmoil) with associated environmental and social impacts. Each case study was implemented in collaboration with local and international partners, and resulted in the identification of economic efficient, sustainable and equitable local adaptation options. The scientific innovation of the project lies in the application of an ecosystem services approach to analyse adaptation options, the integration of complex ecosystem dynamics and societal impacts, and the spatially explicit modelling of economic benefits supplied by ecosystems.