Analysis of early IMPACT2C climate modelling results

Description

This policy brief provides a summary of the initial findings of the project, reporting key lessons from the climate modelling analysis.

• An analysis of climate model projections in the IMPACT2C project, looking at the A1B Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) scenario (a medium-high scenario with no mitigation) indicates that the 2°C goal could be exceeded in the next 30 years, just after 2040.
• The project has looked at the regional climate model information for Europe, in the context of the 2°C goal. This provides information on the relative change in Europe versus the global average, including for individual EU countries.
• The IMPACT2C project has compared the new RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) model runs to the SRES, looking at the implications of the timing and probability of global average temperatures.

Reference information