Extreme sea levels on the rise along Europe’s coasts

Future extreme sea levels and flood risk along European coasts will be strongly impacted by global warming. Changes in all acting components are considered in this work, i.e., sea level rise, tides, waves, and storm surges, until 2100 in view of climate change. Results indicate that by the end of this century the 100-year event along Europe will on average increase between 57 and 81 cm. The North Sea region is projected to face the highest increase, amounting to nearly 1m under a high emission scenario by 2100, followed by the Baltic Sea and Atlantic coasts of the UK and Ireland. Sea level rise is the main driver of the changes, but intensified climate extremes along most of northern Europe can have significant local effects. Little changes in climate extremes are shown along southern Europe, with the exception of a projected decrease along the Portuguese coast and the Gulf of Cadiz, offsetting sea level rise by 20–30%. By the end of this century, 5 million Europeans currently under threat of a 100-year coastal flood event could be annually at risk from coastal flooding under high-end warming. These findings stress the need to timely develop and implement appropriate adaptation measures.