IMPACT2C modelling results for a 2°C climate for key global vulnerable regions

This policy brief provides a summary of the findings on the impacts of 2°C on key vulnerability global hot-spots, focusing on: (1) the Maldives, (2) Bangladesh and (3) the Niger and Upper Blue Nile River Basins in Africa.

Overall, the analysis finds that large impacts are projected for all three key vulnerability global hot-spots, even for 2°C of global warming. The analysis also shows very significant increase in these impacts at higher levels of warming. Early adaptation is needed to address these challenges.

The IMPACT2C project undertook a case study on the Maldives. The country is widely recognised as one of the most vulnerable to climate change, particularly from the effects of sea-level rise, as the islands are on average only 1.5 metres above sea level.Overall the study finds that many of the islands of the Maldives are at major risk even under a 2°C world, and above this goal, even recent adaptation measures (such as the higher design of the new island Hulhumalé) are likely to be severely affected. 

As a low-lying deltaic nation, Bangladesh is potentially very vulnerable to sea-level rise. Following the analysis presented for the Maldives, a set of sea-level rise scenarios were developed for Bangladesh. These indicate similar findings, i.e. even if the 2°C goal is achieved, sea-level rise will continue over the century and there is the potential for higher levels of sea-level rise the earlier that 2°C is exceeded. However, Bangladesh also experiences tropical cyclones, and sea-level rise will increase storm surge and high water levels, exacerbating the potential impact of these extremes.

Some of the largest future risks arise from potential changes in the water cycle and water resources in sub-Saharan Africa, increasing variability and changes in patterns of extremes (including floods and droughts). The IMPACT2C project set out to investigate these issues, focusing on two major river basins in Africa, for the Niger Basin (West Africa) and Upper Blue Nile (East Africa).The results show that under 2°C of warming, high flows and flood risks are generally projected to increase for these major river basins.