Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change - Emissions Scenarios - Summary for Policymakers

The long-term nature and uncertainty of climate change and its driving forces require scenarios that extend to the end of the 21st century. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) requested this Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). The report was accepted by the Working Group III plenary session in March 2000. The SRES scenarios cover a wide range of the main driving forces of future emissions, from demographic to technological and economic developments. None of the scenarios in the set includes any future policies that explicitly address climate change, although all scenarios necessarily encompass various policies of other types. The set of SRES emissions scenarios is based on an extensive assessment of the literature, six alternative modeling approaches, and an “open process” that solicited wide participation and feedback from many groups and individuals. The SRES scenarios include the range of emissions of all relevant species of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and sulfur and their driving forces.